ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tulum07]

Is this forecast to be a fish storm? All of the MDR storms recently have become fish storms.

[ChrisH-UK]

GOES-16 Meso Sector 2 Geocolor and Tropical Airmass blend to bring out the detail. Lots of convection happening and gently turning as it forms up. The meso sector moves at the end of the loop as it keeps track of it.

Source - https://col.st/nL8R4

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

[cycloneye]

Let's say hello to Kirk.

AL, 12, 2024093012, , BEST, 0, 137N, 342W, 35, 1004, TS

[Ubuntwo]

40 knots

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATES DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
KIRK...

Recently received satellite wind data indicates that Tropical
Depression Twelve has become Tropical Storm Kirk with maximum
sustained winds of about 45 mph (70 km/h). The satellite imagery
also suggests the system has reformed a bit south of the earlier
estimated position. This information with an updated track and
intensity forecast will be reflected in the upcoming advisory at
11am AST.

[aspen]

40 knots

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATES DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
KIRK...

Recently received satellite wind data indicates that Tropical
Depression Twelve has become Tropical Storm Kirk with maximum
sustained winds of about 45 mph (70 km/h). The satellite imagery
also suggests the system has reformed a bit south of the earlier
estimated position. This information with an updated track and
intensity forecast will be reflected in the upcoming advisory at
11am AST.

Wasn’t expecting a special update between advisories. They must’ve gotten a good ASCAT pass.

A further south center could mean a later recurve and perhaps a track closer to the HWRF, which was 3-4 degrees south of the HAFS-A/B by Day 5.

[Teban54]

40 knots

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATES DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
KIRK...

Recently received satellite wind data indicates that Tropical
Depression Twelve has become Tropical Storm Kirk with maximum
sustained winds of about 45 mph (70 km/h). The satellite imagery
also suggests the system has reformed a bit south of the earlier
estimated position. This information with an updated track and
intensity forecast will be reflected in the upcoming advisory at
11am AST.

Wasn’t expecting a special update between advisories. They must’ve gotten a good ASCAT pass.

A further south center could mean a later recurve and perhaps a track closer to the HWRF, which was 3-4 degrees south of the HAFS-A/B by Day 5.

Could this also mean more resistance to shear in both short and long terms, either due to a more organized system in the short term or by staying away from unfavorable regions, or both?

[Cachondo23]

40 knots

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATES DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
KIRK...

Recently received satellite wind data indicates that Tropical
Depression Twelve has become Tropical Storm Kirk with maximum
sustained winds of about 45 mph (70 km/h). The satellite imagery
also suggests the system has reformed a bit south of the earlier
estimated position. This information with an updated track and
intensity forecast will be reflected in the upcoming advisory at
11am AST.

Don't recall seeing a random update by NHC for a storm in the mid Atlantic and data based on satellite images.

[zzzh]

ASCAT-C partial pass has 35kt wind. Waiting for ASCAT-B data which should be a bullseye pass

[abajan]

https://attachment.tapatalk-cdn.com/65054/202409/1_77d6ccbb9b47116c799ead331b84d916.gif

Wow.

[zzzh]

https://i.imgur.com/yskzcsa.png
ASCAT-C partial pass has 35kt wind. Waiting for ASCAT-B data which should be a bullseye pass

[Zonacane]

This is going to be an impressive major

[Travorum]

Wasn’t expecting a special update between advisories. They must’ve gotten a good ASCAT pass.

A further south center could mean a later recurve and perhaps a track closer to the HWRF, which was 3-4 degrees south of the HAFS-A/B by Day 5.

Could this also mean more resistance to shear in both short and long terms, either due to a more organized system in the short term or by staying away from unfavorable regions, or both?

From aspen in the models thread, a more southerly track should avoid more significant forecasted shear by the time Kirk reaches 50W, so the center reformation to the south will likely help in the long term:

HAFS-A/B, which show Kirk reaching 23-25N by 50W, have it hit significant shear at the end of their 06z runs. The HWRF is around 20N/50W at the same time frame and shows no shear.

As for short term potential on organization, with the center down to 13.5N it is firmly within the 29C isotherm instead of straddling its border which should help. Between the 40kt barbs and a closed low on ASCAT-B and appearance on 89GHz, I would say organization is well under way and Kirk could capitalize on higher SSTs:

[MHC Tracking]

Captain Kirk will pilot the Atlantic into above-average ACE.

[Teban54]

Captain Kirk will pilot the Atlantic into above-average ACE.

We'll see if we get more funny NHC advisories to add to this list.

[cycloneye]

[WaveBreaking]

https://i.imgur.com/5cq7ke3.gif

I know this has been said a billion times already this season, but Kirk’s structure reminds me of a developing WPAC typhoon. Mainly bc of the bands to the south and the TEJ adding equator-ward outflow.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/5cq7ke3.gif

Slightly exposed to the north, similar to what the hurricane models have predicted. It’ll take a few days for a RI-conducive structure to form.

[abajan]

Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...KIRK STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 34.8W
ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
...