ATL: KIRK - Models

[cycloneye]

First SHIP run is very bullish.

[cycloneye]

GEFS.

[Teban54]

GEFS.

https://i.imgur.com/cQrYxQh.png

It does seem that, in addition to GFS operational gradually trending more west (now recurving at 45W when it was 40W a few runs ago), the ensembles are even further west than the operational. That's good for raising the ceiling of this storm due to warmer waters, while still staying safely away from land masses (as of now).

[Teban54]

I posted this in the discussion thread a few hours ago, so I'm moving it here:



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0z GFS continues trending west with the recurve, now doing so at 47W. This is a little bit further west than Lorenzo did.

0z CMC gets 90L down to 976 mb at the end of this run, which is unusually low for this model. More curiously, it has 90L missing the trough and heading WNW at 240 hrs, unlike GFS and Euro. The storm is already at 23N 51W at that point, so still unlikely to hit land, but still worth noting.



This possibility of missing the trough is showing up on some GEFS members as well.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Deterministic models all show recurve around 45-50W but GEPS and GEFS about half of the members miss the trough and reach the northern Caribbean and/or Bermuda. Very wide spread as early as 5 days.

[mitchell]

As an east coast surfer I would LOVE to see the GFS verify on this one. Even all the way out at 45W the swell models (NOAA, GFS Wave) have 5 feet @ 16 second intervals reaching the east coast.

[cycloneye]

Strongest run yet from ICON with peak of 936 mbs.

[cheezyWXguy]

Strongest run yet from ICON with peak of 936 mbs.

https://i.imgur.com/ZuWydoJ.png

Man, that one south of 90L is no pushover either.

[Travorum]

SHIPS continues to be very bullish with 90L

[cycloneye]

The ceiling from the models is very high.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Strongest run yet from ICON with peak of 936 mbs.

https://i.imgur.com/ZuWydoJ.png

That’s a Cat 4 uncomfortably close to Bermuda. The island always knows that our SST could support one of those, but it has never happened. Definitely not something we would enjoy.

[cycloneye]

The Euro ensembles are impressive.

[cycloneye]

The 00z models suite has a cat 4 peak from HAFS A-B and HWRF. The others are at cat 2-3 including the ofci. UKMET is the outlier on the lower side.

[aspen]

HAFS-A/B, which show Kirk reaching 23-25N by 50W, have it hit significant shear at the end of their 06z runs. The HWRF is around 20N/50W at the same time frame and shows no shear.

[cycloneye]

HMON up to cat 5.

[aspen]

12z hurricane models have trended a little stronger with a better internal structure. If they verify, we should see a hurricane tomorrow and a major by Wednesday afternoon/evening. The HAFS-B hasn’t even finished loading and already has it in the mid 930s.

[Travorum]

SHIPS RI probabilities increasing in the 12z:

[cycloneye]

[Hayabusa]

Like the ensemble from Kirk it's beautiful...

[weeniepatrol]

Like the ensemble from Kirk it's beautiful...
https://i.imgur.com/CD9JP43.png