ATL: KIRK - Advisories

[HurricaneAndre2008]

900
WTNT22 KNHC 292041
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 32.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 32.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 32.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.9N 33.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.2N 35.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 38.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 40.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.9N 41.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N 42.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 20.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 95NE 90SE 65SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 32.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...COULD BECOME A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 32.5W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 2050 MI...3300 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

The system we have been monitoring in the eastern Tropical Atlantic
(AL90) has continued to become better organized throughout the day.
After an overnight deep convective burst, outer convective banding
has become better defined, noted by the most recent TAFB subjective
Dvorak fix of T2.0/30 kt. GOES-16 1-minute visible imagery also
shows that the circulation, which was more elongated this morning,
has become better defined on the western side, suggesting a
well-defined closed vortex now exists. Based on the above data,
advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Twelve this
afternoon, with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The motion of the new depression currently appears to be westward at
270/8 kt. A prominent subtropical ridge to the north should continue
to steer the system generally westward to west-northwestward over
the next couple of days. After that time, this ridge becomes more
eroded by a mid-latitude trough on its western side, resulting in
the system gradually turning more poleward through the end of the
forecast. In general the guidance is pretty tightly clustered for
the first 48-60 h, with spread increasing a little more thereafter
related to how quickly the system turns poleward. The initial NHC
track forecast lies near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA), which favors the ECMWF track a little further west than the
GFS track.

For at least the next 2-3 days, vertical wind shear is expected to
remain low, mid-level moisture stays high, as the system remains
over 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. Yet, the current large
convective envelope of the system suggests it may take a day or so
for an inner-core to become established. Thus, the initial rate of
intensification is a bit slow, a little under the guidance for the
next 24 hours, but then becomes faster and ends up near the IVCN
consensus aid by 120 h. The initial NHC intensity forecast shows
TD12 becoming a hurricane in 60 h and a major hurricane in 5 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 13.8N 32.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 13.9N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 14.2N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 14.5N 38.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 15.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 15.9N 41.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 17.4N 42.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 20.0N 45.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 22.5N 47.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Your post was moved from the main thread to then make the advisories thread.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 33.2W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

The depression is gradually becoming better organized while
continuing to produce a large area of deep convection. Recent
scatterometer winds indicate the center of the system lies on the
northern side of the convective cloud mass, with 25-30 kt winds
noted within the eastern semicircle of the circulation and weaker
winds on the west side. Based on the scatterometer data, the system
remains a 30-kt depression for this advisory.

The depression is moving westward at about 6 kt, to the south of an
established subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. This
feature should keep the tropical cyclone on a westward to
west-northwestward heading during the next couple of days. Then, a
northwestward turn is forecast later this week as a deep-layer
trough over the north-central Atlantic weakens the ridge. This
recurvature over open waters is supported by the latest track
guidance and global model ensembles, and the updated NHC track
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with no
notable changes.

Intensification is expected due to very favorable environmental and
oceanic conditions. The tropical cyclone will move over SSTs warmer
than 29C during the next several days, within a moist and unstable
environment with weak deep-layer shear. Once the system becomes more
consolidated and establishes an inner core, its rate of
strengthening is likely to increase. The latest NHC intensity
forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN multi-model consensus
aids, which brings the system to hurricane strength in 48 h and
major hurricane intensity by day 5. In addition, the system is
forecast to become a large hurricane, with an expanding wind and
wave field as it gains latitude later in the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 13.9N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 14.0N 34.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 14.2N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 14.5N 38.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 15.2N 40.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 16.4N 42.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 17.8N 43.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 20.5N 46.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 22.5N 48.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Tropical Depression Twelve has become better organized overnight. A
29/2338 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed a large area of 25 to 30 kt
winds, and that the center was located near the northern edge of the
large convective mass. Although a 30/0334 UTC AMSR2 microwave image
showed that the center was still located near the northern edge of
the central convective area, curved banding has been increasing
during the night, with a large area of cold cloud tops persisting.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T-2.0/30 kt
from both TAFB and SAB. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS
are rising and now range from 36 to 41 kt. Based on the subjective
Dvorak estimates, a 30 kt initial intensity is held for this
advisory, but the depression is likely very near tropical storm
strength.

The estimated initial motion of the depression is westward, or 275/7
kt. The cyclone will continue moving westward to west-northwestward
for another couple days while a well-established subtropical ridge
remains in place to the north of the system. A gradual turn to the
northwest is expected around mid-week as a deep-layer trough over
the north-central Atlantic weakens the ridge. At the end of the
forecast period, an approaching upper-level trough near Bermuda will
induce the cyclone to turn northward over the open waters of the
central Atlantic Ocean. Some along-track spread is noted in the
various track model solutions, but the models are in good agreement
on the northward turn, with little cross-track spread. The latest
NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one, and is
about halfway between the slower GFS solution and the faster ECMWF
model.

Conditions are quite favorable along the path of the depression with
29 degree C sea-surface temperatures, a moist environment, and weak
vertical wind shear. Given the weak shear and the gradually
improving structure, the cyclone should begin to steadily intensify
soon. The depression is forecast to become a hurricane in 36 to 48
hours and a major hurricane in about 4 days. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies between the middle
and upper end of the intensity guidance suite, near the HCCA and
IVCN multi-model consensus aids. It should be noted that most of
the models indicate that the cyclone's wind and wave field will
expand significantly over the next several days, and the system is
forecast to become a large and powerful hurricane as it gains
latitude later this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 14.0N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 14.1N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 14.3N 37.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 14.9N 39.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 15.8N 41.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 17.1N 42.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 18.4N 44.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 20.7N 46.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 23.4N 48.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Kirk Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
935 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATES DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
KIRK...

Recently received satellite wind data indicates that Tropical
Depression Twelve has become Tropical Storm Kirk with maximum
sustained winds of about 45 mph (70 km/h). The satellite imagery
also suggests the system has reformed a bit south of the earlier
estimated position. This information with an updated track and
intensity forecast will be reflected in the upcoming advisory at
11am AST.

SUMMARY OF 935 AM AST...1335 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 34.4W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...KIRK STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 34.8W
ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES



Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Satellite images show an expanding area of central convection near
the system with the low-level center on the western side of the deep
convection. Microwave data from a few hours ago showed that an
inner core is forming, with a partial eyewall noted on an AMSU
pass. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt based on 40-45 kt
winds from a pair of recent scatterometer passes.

The motion of Kirk appears to be westward at about 10 kt, with the
center apparently re-forming to the south within the deeper
convection. The track forecast is relatively straightforward, with
Kirk expected to follow the south and southwestern edge of the
subtropical high over the east-central Atlantic, resulting in a
path that gradually gains latitude and Kirk moving northward by
this weekend. Other than a small westward adjustment based on the
initial motion, the new forecast is very close to the old one.

The environment around Kirk appears quite favorable for
strengthening during the next several days, with warm waters, a
moist environment and low shear in forecast. Given the formation
of an inner core, the rate of strengthening has been raised in the
short term, and rapid intensification is a distinct possibility.
The biggest negative to this system is probably its large size,
which could eventually promote eyewall replacement cycles and some
SST cooling ahead of the system. Still, almost all of the guidance
show Kirk becoming quite a large and powerful hurricane. The new
NHC intensity forecast lies between the dynamical model consensus
and the statistical-dynamical models, which are quite bullish on
this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 13.5N 34.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 13.6N 36.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 14.0N 38.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 14.7N 40.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 15.8N 41.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 17.1N 43.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 18.4N 44.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 20.7N 46.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 23.5N 48.7W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...KIRK FORECAST TO BECOME A VERY LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 35.7W
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES



Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Kirk is continuing to become better organized this afternoon on
satellite imagery with a large burst of convection on the northern
side of the center and an expanding outflow pattern aloft. All
intensity estimates are rising, and the initial wind speed is set to
50 kt, near the CIMSS-AiDT and DMINT values.

The motion of Kirk is about the same as before, westward at about
10 kt. Very little change was made to the track forecast, with
below-average model spread across the entire period due to
well-defined steering flow from the subtropical high over the
east-central Atlantic. Kirk should gradually move more
west-northwestward by tomorrow and turn northwestward midweek, with
a north-northwest turn likely by the end of the forecast period.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be quite conducive for
strengthening during the next several days, with warm waters, a
moist mid-level environment and low shear in forecast. Rapid
intensification remains a notable possibility if this system can
close off its inner core, though the latest microwave data shows
that any formative eyewall is still open. Later on, the exact peak
intensity is a bit of a mystery, since sometimes these favorable
conditions can result in most of the energy going toward producing a
large, but not necessarily stronger hurricane. Regardless, all
signs point to Kirk becoming quite a large and powerful hurricane,
possibly category 4, later this week and remaining intense for days.
The new forecast is similar to the previous one and is between the
dynamical model consensus and the statistical-dynamical models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 13.6N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 13.9N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 14.5N 39.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 15.6N 41.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 16.8N 42.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 19.3N 45.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 21.8N 47.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 25.5N 49.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...KIRK FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 36.8W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES



NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Satellite images indicate Kirk is an asymmetric tropical storm with
curved bands of deep convection primarily over the eastern half of
the circulation. Recent scatterometer winds indicate the center of
Kirk is slightly north of previous estimates, with a large
tropical-storm-force wind field over the eastern semicircle. Based
on the scatterometer data and a blend of the various satellite
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt.

Kirk is now moving west-northwestward (285/10 kt). This general
motion should continue for the next couple of days while Kirk moves
around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge
over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn toward the northwest is
anticipated during the middle part of the week, followed by a
recurvature to the north-northwest and north over the central
Atlantic by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The track guidance
remains in very good agreement, and only minor adjustments were made
to the NHC track forecast.

Very warm waters, weak vertical wind shear, and a moist environment
should support steady to perhaps rapid strengthening of Kirk during
the next several days. The tropical storm is currently broad and
lacks an inner core, but the forecast shows a faster rate of
strengthening by midweek as Kirk is expected to become better
organized within this favorable environment. No significant changes
were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which lies on the higher
side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the
statistical-dynamical aids and some of the regional hurricane
models. The models agree that the wind field of Kirk will grow quite
large later in the period as the cyclone gains latitude over open
waters. Ultimately, Kirk is forecast to become a large, major
hurricane over the open central Atlantic later this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 14.4N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 14.8N 38.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 15.8N 40.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 16.8N 42.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 18.0N 43.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 19.2N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 20.4N 46.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 23.3N 48.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 27.5N 49.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

Satellite imagery indicates that Kirk's structure hasn't changed
very much over the past 6 h. The infrared imagery consists of a
large comma-shaped area of deep convection. ASCAT data from Monday
evening as well as a more recent 01/0416 AMSR2 image indicate that
the center is near the northern edge of the convection. The AMSR2
image also indicates that the convective bands haven't become any
better organized around the center over the past 6 h. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, and
the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 49
to 56 kt. Given that the highest ASCAT vectors from around 0000 UTC
were about 43 kt, and taking into account the recent intensity
estimates, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt, which is unchanged
from the previous NHC advisory.

Kirk is estimated to be moving west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt.
This general motion should continue for the next day or so while
Kirk moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn toward
the northwest is expected during the middle part of the week,
followed by a recurvature to the north over the central Atlantic by
the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is in good
agreement for the first couple days of the forecast, with a bit of
spread noted thereafter. The new NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous official forecast through 72 h, and west of the
previous forecast at days 4 and 5, close to the multi-model
consensus aid TVCA.

Favorable environmental conditions are forecast to persist along
Kirk's path through the next 4 days or so, with warm ocean waters,
weak vertical wind shear and a relatively moist and unstable
atmosphere. Kirk has a broad structure with a large wind field.
The tropical storm force radii are forecast to continue increasing
through the forecast period. This structure could limit Kirk's
chances for rapid strengthening, despite the favorable environment.
Little change has been made to the NHC intensity forecast, which
calls for steady strengthening over the next 3 days. The NHC
intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance envelope.
Kirk is forecast to become a large, major hurricane over the open
central Atlantic later this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 14.9N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.5N 39.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 16.5N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 17.6N 43.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 18.7N 44.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 19.9N 45.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 21.1N 47.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 24.2N 49.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 29.0N 49.7W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[HurricaneAndre2008]

008
WTNT32 KNHC 011451
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

...NEARBY BUOY FINDS A STRONGER KIRK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 39.2W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

Kirk's structure on satellite is gradually becoming better
organized, with deep convective bands attempting to wrap around the
center, though there still remains evidence that dry air could be
getting into the core on the western side. Some of this less humid
air could be getting imported due to subtle northerly mid-level
shear above 20-kt as diagnosed by the ECMWF analysis this morning.
With that said, we have received some fortuitous surface data from
a moored PIRATA buoy (13008) that Kirk passed close by this morning
at around 09 UTC. The buoy reported sustained tropical-storm-force
winds at 4 meters, and a concurrent minimum pressure down to 990
mb. Thus the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt with an
estimated minimum pressure a little lower at 988 mb. This intensity
is a little above the subjective Dvorak estimates but closest to
the latest DPRINT estimate from UW-CIMSS.

Kirk is still moving west-northwestward, estimated at 300/11 kt.
This motion with perhaps a slight slowdown should continue over the
next couple of days as Kirk is primarily steered along the
southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge positioned to its north.
The western extent of this ridge will become eroded by a long-wave
trough offshore of eastern North America towards the
latter part of this week, allowing Kirk to turn first northwestward
and then northward by the end of the forecast period. The track
guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the latest NHC track
forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, very similar
to the prior advisory and between the consensus aids HCCA and TVCN.

While Kirk is stronger this morning, it is feeling some of the
effects of the aforementioned mid-level shear, preventing
convection from fully wrapping around the center. However, other
environmental factors, namely warm 28-30 C sea-surface temperatures
and plenty of deep-layer moisture, are quite conducive for
strengthening. For now, the shear is anticipated to prevent a
faster rate of intensification, but Kirk should become a hurricane
later today. After 24 h, even the mid-level shear is expected to
decrease, and a faster period of intensification is likely in the
24-60 h period. The NHC intensity forecast shows Kirk becoming a
major hurricane at the end of this period. In addition, Kirk's wind
field is also forecast to grow in size by the end of the week.
Thereafter, hard to predict inner-core structural changes will
likely lead to fluctuations in intensity, though by day 5 shear
begins to increase again with weakening beginning by that time.
However, Kirk will likely remain a large and formidable hurricane.
The NHC intensity forecast is close the middle of the guidance
envelope early on but is near the higher end of the aids in 72 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 15.3N 39.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 16.0N 40.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 17.0N 42.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 18.2N 43.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 19.3N 45.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 20.5N 46.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 21.6N 48.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 25.0N 51.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 30.0N 51.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

Kirk's appearance on satellite has improved with a large burst of
convection near the center and deep convective bands continuing to
wrap around the southeast side. A 1808 UTC GPM microwave pass
showed an improved inner-core structure with an eyewall noted on the
37 GHz channel. The UW-CIMSS DMINT intensity estimate associated
with the microwave image was 63 kt. This estimate combined with the
most recent TAFB Dvorak fix of 4.0/65 kt is the basis for making
Kirk a hurricane this afternoon with an intensity of 65 kt.

Kirk is moving slightly more poleward this afternoon, with an
estimated motion of 305/12 kt. This motion, with perhaps a slight
slowdown, should continue over the next couple of days as Kirk is
primarily steered along the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge
positioned to its north. The western extent of this ridge will
become eroded by a long-wave trough offshore of eastern North
America towards the latter part of this week, allowing Kirk to turn
first northwestward and then recurving north-northeastward by the
end of the forecast period. The track guidance continues to be in
good agreement, and the latest NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope, very similar to the prior advisory
and between the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids.

Now that Kirk's inner core is becoming better established it is
poised to intensify at a faster rate. Favorable environmental
factors surrounding Kirk, such as decreasing shear, warm 28-30 C
sea-surface temperatures, and plenty of deep-layer moisture will
continue to support a faster rate of strengthening through the 24-48
h period. The NHC intensity forecast shows Kirk becoming a major
hurricane towards the end of the forecast period. In addition,
Kirk's wind field is forecast to expand as the system moves poleward
through the end of the week. Thereafter, hard to predict inner-core
structural changes will likely lead to fluctuations in intensity,
though by day 5, shear increases again with weakening commencing.
However, Kirk will likely remain a large and formidable hurricane
through the forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is close the middle
of the intensity guidance consensus and still a little on the
upper-end towards the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 16.2N 40.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 17.1N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 18.3N 43.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.4N 44.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 20.4N 46.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 21.5N 47.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 22.9N 49.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 27.0N 51.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 33.0N 49.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Mora/Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

...KIRK HOLDING STEADY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 40.8W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1790 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES



Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

Kirk has stopped its strengthening trend for the moment.
Geostationary satellite imagery has shown a large primary band
extending around the northern and eastern portions of the
circulation, with a dry air intrusion making its way into the inner
core. An SSMIS microwave pass from 1915 UTC showed that the eyewall
was open to the southwest. The initial intensity is held at 65 kt,
closest to the subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at 11 kt. A subtropical ridge
should continue to steer Kirk in the same general direction through
Thursday. By the end of the week, a trough exiting the eastern U.S.
seaboard should weaken the ridge and turn Kirk northward, followed
by a turn to the north-northeast over the weekend. The track
guidance is tightly clustered and only minor updates have been made
to the latest NHC track forecast.

Kirk is expected to continue strengthening in the coming days.
Global models forecast the deep-layer vertical wind shear to remain
weak and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track
during the next few days. The vertical wind shear is predicted to
gradually increase over the weekend and will likely induce a
weakening trend by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and now
lies at the upper-end of the guidance envelope, closest to HCCA. As
mentioned earlier, Kirk is a large system and expected to grow
larger as it moves northward, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending far from the center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 16.7N 40.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 17.6N 42.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 18.7N 43.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 19.8N 45.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 21.0N 46.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 22.3N 48.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 24.0N 49.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 28.8N 50.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 35.3N 46.4W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Satellite imagery over the past 6 to 12 hours indicates a gradual
improvement in the organization of Kirk's central dense overcast.
The low-level center is likely underneath the southern portion of
the central convective area. The cyclone is also growing in size.
Convective banding in the southeast semicircle sprawls out a far
distance away from the center. The latest subjective intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 65 to 77 kt, while objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are ranging from 61 to 71 kt.
The initial intensity is nudged up to 70 kt based on an average of
the subjective estimates.

Kirk has been moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt. A similar
heading at perhaps a slightly slower forward speed is expected
through Thursday as Kirk is steered by a subtropical ridge. By the
end of the week, Kirk will gradually turn northward in between an
approaching deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic and a
subtropical ridge to the east of the hurricane. A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected by the end of the weekend, and the
models remain in good agreement on this scenario. The new NHC
track forecast is nearly unchanged from the previous one through 72
h, but a bit west of the previous forecast beyond 72 h. The NHC
forecast is in best agreement with the TVCA consensus aid.

Favorable environmental conditions are forecast to continue for the
next 60 to 72 hours as Kirk travels over warm sea-surface
temperatures and within a relatively moist environment with weak
deep-layer vertical wind shear. These favorable conditions should
allow for continued steady strengthening, and Kirk is forecast to
become a major hurricane on Thursday. By hour 96, Kirk is likely
to experience stronger southwesterly wind shear, which should begin
a weakening trend. The latest intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and lies in the middle to upper portion of the
guidance envelope. Kirk is a large tropical cyclone and is expected
to grow into a very large and powerful major hurricane over the
next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 17.5N 42.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 18.4N 43.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 19.5N 44.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 20.7N 46.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 21.9N 47.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 23.4N 49.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 25.3N 50.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 30.8N 50.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 37.4N 44.8W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

...KIRK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 43.0W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES



Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Kirk continues to intensify this morning. On geostationary satellite
imagery convective bands continue to rotate around the eye seen
earlier in microwave imagery, although this feature hasn't shown up
yet on visible imagery. The subjective Dvorak estimates were a
consensus T4.5/77 kt, and blending these estimates with somewhat
lower objective intensity estimates, the intensity has been raised
to 75 kt this advisory.

Kirk continues moving northwestward, or 305/10 kt. A gradual
slowdown at a similar heading is expected over the next day or two
as the hurricane remains steered by a subtropical ridge centered to
its northeast. At the end of the week, Kirk will find itself between
an increasingly eroded ridge to its east, and a digging upper-level
trough to its west, and it is likely Kirk will be steered between
these features, recurving northward, and then north-northeastward by
the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is
very similar to the prior one, especially over the next several
days, but is a little further northwest thereafter, blending the
prior track forecast to the consensus aids TCVA and HCCA, though in
general the track spread among the track guidance remains relatively
low.

Kirk appears poised to intensify quite a bit in the short-term now
that shear has decreased as the hurricane remains over very warm
ocean waters and plenty of deep-layer moisture. These favorable
conditions should promote notable strengthening, and the latest NHC
intensity forecast now shows Kirk becoming a major hurricane in 24
h, and peaking as a 115 kt Category 4 hurricane in 48 h. Thereafter,
southwesterly shear from the upper-level trough to its west could
begin to increase, leading to a gradual weakening trend. The latest
intensity forecast is a little higher than earlier, owing to
somewhat higher intensity guidance aids this cycle, but still
remains lower than some of the more bullish guidance (HAFS-B) but is
roughly in line with HCCA this cycle. Kirk is also expected to
continue growing in size with a larger than average radius of both
tropical storm and hurricane-force wind radii as it recurves into
the open Atlantic Ocean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 18.0N 43.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 19.0N 44.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 20.2N 45.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 21.3N 47.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 22.7N 48.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 26.7N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 32.7N 49.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 39.6N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

This afternoon, Kirk has the appearance of an intensifying
hurricane. While the eye still remains obscured on visible satellite
imagery, an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass at 1604 UTC showed the
inner-core continues to improve, with a notable cyan ring on the 37
GHz channel. This signal is often a harbinger of more substantial
intensification. While the subjective Dvorak estimates remain
unchanged from this morning, the improvement of the storm structure
on microwave imagery suggests intensification has continued, and the
initial intensity is set at 80 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane has maintained its motion throughout the day, still
northwestward at 310/10 kt. There is not a lot of new information to
report about the track philosophy, with Kirk expected to round the
western edge of the subtropical ridge that has been its primary
steering mechanism over the last few days. This ridge is forecast to
become eroded by a deep-layer trough approaching from the west, and
Kirk will ultimately track in between these two features, beginning
to accelerate as the tropical cyclone recurves into the higher
latitudes. The track guidance remains in good agreement with
lower-than-average spread on the forecast track, and the NHC track
is very similar to the prior advisory and is quite close to both the
ECMWF, GFS, and consensus aid track solutions.

All systems appear go for Kirk to intensify significantly over the
next couple of days, and the NHC intensity forecast shows the
hurricane intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane in 48 h, in good
agreement with the hurricane-regional model guidance. Thereafter,
inner-core fluctuations plus increasing southwesterly shear from the
upper-level trough to its west is expected to cause gradual
weakening, as shown in the NHC forecast after that time. Kirk is
also expected to continue growing in size through the forecast
period. By the end of the forecast, Kirk should begin extratropical
transition in the high-latitudes, likely to be completed just
beyond day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 18.9N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 19.9N 45.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 46.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 22.4N 48.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 23.8N 49.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 35.1N 47.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 42.5N 38.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kirk Special Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
800 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Kirk is undergoing rapid intensification this evening.
Geostationary satellite imagery has shown an eye clearing and Dvorak
estimates are rising as quickly as they are allowed. The initial
intensity is set to a possibly conservative 105 kt, closest to the
final-T number (T5.5) from TAFB. The intensity forecast has been
increased between 12 through 48 h. No changes were made to the
intensity forecast beyond 60 h, or the track and wind radii
predictions. The next forecast will be released at the normally
scheduled time (11 PM AST).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0000Z 19.3N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 19.9N 45.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 46.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 22.4N 48.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 23.8N 49.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 35.1N 47.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 42.5N 38.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Kirk has undergone an impressive period of rapid intensification
over the past 24 h. Recent satellite imagery showed a ragged eye,
with multiple deep bursts of convection rotating in the eyewall.
Overshooting tops are obscuring the eye now, but it would not be
surprising if it clears again soon. As noted in the special
advisory, the subjective Dvorak satellite estimates have climbed but
were constrained. The initial intensity is nudged up to 110 kt for
this advisory, closest to the T6.0 data-T number from SAB. The
hurricane has strengthened 55 kt since 0300 UTC last night, which
means Kirk lands at a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

The hurricane continues to be steered by the subtropical ridge to
the northwest at an estimated 310/9 kt. Little has changed in the
track forecast reasoning. On Friday night or Saturday, Kirk is
expected to gradually turn north-northwestward to northward and
accelerate in the flow between a deep-layer trough and the weakening
subtropical ridge. Later in the weekend, Kirk is expected to
continue accelerating north-northeastward to northeastward. Few
changes have been made to the latest official track forecast, which
lie close to various consensus aids.

Given Kirk's recent rapid intensification, conditions appear
conducive for further strengthening during the next day or so. The
short-term forecast is therefore above all of the guidance now,
peaking at 130 kt in 24 h. By Friday, the vertical wind shear is
expected to increase and gradually weaken Kirk through the remainder
of the forecast period. As the hurricane moves more poleward,
Kirk's tropical-storm-force winds are predicted to grow and send
large swell westward to the northern Leeward Islands and the Bahamas
over the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 19.5N 44.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 20.4N 45.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 21.7N 47.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 23.1N 48.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 24.8N 49.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 27.0N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 30.0N 50.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 36.8N 45.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 43.9N 35.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

After going through a period of rapid intensification, Kirk appears
to have stopped intensifying, at least temporarily, and there are
signs in satellite imagery that a dry slot has wrapped into the
circulation. Subjective final-T numbers have decreased slightly
from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is set at 105 kt, near
the CI numbers.

Kirk continues to move northwestward (315/9 kt), which should
continue for the next 36 hours while the hurricane moves along the
southwestern periphery of the subtropical high. After 36 hours,
Kirk is forecast to recurve between the high and a deep-layer trough
over the western/central Atlantic, eventually moving northeastward
by late Sunday or Monday. There is lower-than-normal spread among
the track guidance, including the global model ensembles, and
overall the new NHC track prediction is not changed much from the
previous advisory.

The hurricane is expected to move through a moist, low-shear
environment for the next 36 hours or so, with sea surface
temperatures actually warming by a degree or two up to 30 deg
Celsius. If Kirk can avoid further intrusions of dry air into the
eye, then the environment should be able to support strengthening to
category 4 strength. The NHC intensity forecast is near the top end
of the guidance during the short term. After 36 hours, increasing
deep-layer shear is likely to induce a gradual weakening trend, but
interaction with a baroclinic energy source should help the storm to
maintain hurricane-force winds through the end of the forecast
period. Based on thickness fields from the global models, Kirk is
now forecast to be extratropical by day 5.

Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across
the central and western Atlantic. These swells will likely increase
the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward
Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and
the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 20.0N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 20.8N 46.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 23.5N 49.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 25.4N 50.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 28.0N 50.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 31.3N 49.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 38.5N 42.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 44.7N 30.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

Kirk's satellite depiction has improved this morning after some dry
air entrainment occurred overnight. The inner core has become
re-established with cold cloud tops wrapping around the center.
The eye has become more pronounced and rounded on infrared and
visible imagery. Subjective data-T numbers have increased from the
previous advisory to T5.5, from both TAFB and SAB. UW-CIMSS
objective intensity estimates have increased as well and range from
100-117 kt. Using a blend of these estimates and the improving
satellite trends the initial intensity is set at 110 kt.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at 310/9 kt. This motion
should continue over the next day or so as Kirk moves around the
edge of a subtropical ridge located over the eastern Atlantic. An
approaching trough moving into the central Atlantic this weekend,
will then cause Kirk to curve and turn northeastward between the
aforementioned ridge and the trough to the west. Models are tightly
clustered and the latest NHC forecast track is near the previous
and lies near the consensus aids.

The system is embedded in a favorable environment with low vertical
wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Additional
strengthening is forecast, with only internal organizational eyewall
replacement cycles or dry air intrusion limiting further
strengthening over the next day or so. By late weekend, wind shear
is forecast to increase over the system and gradual weakening is
likely to occur. However, additional baroclinic energy is likely to
allow Kirk to maintain hurricane-force winds along with a growing
tropical-storm-force wind field through the end of the forecast
period. Latest global guidance has Kirk becoming extra-tropical by
Day 5, which is depicted in the NHC forecast. The NHC intensity
forecast is near the previous and lies near the HFIP
corrected-consensus aid.

Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across
the central and western Atlantic. These swells will likely increase
the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward
Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and
the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 20.4N 45.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 21.4N 47.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 22.8N 48.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 24.6N 49.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 29.7N 49.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 33.0N 48.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 40.3N 40.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 45.4N 27.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams