ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#21 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 01, 2024 8:47 am

Is organizing despite the shear from Kirk.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#22 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 01, 2024 12:54 pm

90% / 90%

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next
day or two while it moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#23 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 01, 2024 1:59 pm

AL, 91, 2024100118, , BEST, 0, 106N, 259W, 30, 1007, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#24 Postby hipshot » Tue Oct 01, 2024 2:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:
AL, 91, 2024100118, , BEST, 0, 106N, 259W, 30, 1007, LO


This seems very far west for this level of development, I have been hanging around here as long as some but I don't recall one
this close to Africa.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#25 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Oct 01, 2024 3:00 pm

hipshot wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
AL, 91, 2024100118, , BEST, 0, 106N, 259W, 30, 1007, LO


This seems very far west for this level of development, I have been hanging around here as long as some but I don't recall one
this close to Africa.


Do you mean in general or for this time of year? Many systems have formed that far out, Fred 2015, Irma 2017, Florence 2018 etc. If you mean this time of year, then yeah it's getting a bit late for development so far east. We did have TS Nadine form at almost the exact current location of 91L in 2018, on 9 October.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#26 Postby hipshot » Tue Oct 01, 2024 3:05 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
hipshot wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
AL, 91, 2024100118, , BEST, 0, 106N, 259W, 30, 1007, LO


This seems very far west for this level of development, I have been hanging around here as long as some but I don't recall one
this close to Africa.


Do you mean in general or for this time of year? Many systems have formed that far out, Fred 2015, Irma 2017, Florence 2018 etc. If you mean this time of year, then yeah it's getting a bit late for development so far east. We did have TS Nadine form at almost the exact current location of 91L in 2018, on 9 October.


Nope, just from memory. It just seemed pretty close to Africa and I couldn't remember many forming that close. But...my memory
ain't what it used to be.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#27 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Tue Oct 01, 2024 3:10 pm

I think this will be renumbered soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#28 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Oct 01, 2024 3:18 pm

hipshot wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:
hipshot wrote:
This seems very far west for this level of development, I have been hanging around here as long as some but I don't recall one
this close to Africa.


Do you mean in general or for this time of year? Many systems have formed that far out, Fred 2015, Irma 2017, Florence 2018 etc. If you mean this time of year, then yeah it's getting a bit late for development so far east. We did have TS Nadine form at almost the exact current location of 91L in 2018, on 9 October.


Nope, just from memory. It just seemed pretty close to Africa and I couldn't remember many forming that close. But...my memory
ain't what it used to be.


Yeah; for October it is pretty far east, but it's def not unprecedented.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#29 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 01, 2024 6:31 pm

8 PM.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or two while it moves slowly
westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 01, 2024 7:48 pm

No TD yet.

AL, 91, 2024100200, , BEST, 0, 107N, 267W, 30, 1007, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#31 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Oct 02, 2024 4:29 am

Huge Kirk still shredding little 91L to death. I'm curious to see if it can hold on and eventually become our next system. Could be a 90 percenter that doesn't make it

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#32 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 02, 2024 6:43 am

Still at 90% at 8 AM.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 02, 2024 7:48 am

THe only change in the 12z best track is the pressure that is down to 1006 mbs.

AL, 91, 2024100212, , BEST, 0, 106N, 288W, 30, 1006, LO
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#34 Postby Subtrop » Wed Oct 02, 2024 8:54 am

AL, 13, 2024100212, , BEST, 0, 106N, 288W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030, TRANSITIONED, alD12024 to al132024,
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#35 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 02, 2024 9:02 am

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#36 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 02, 2024 9:18 am

The famous banner.


NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen, located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic, at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#37 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 02, 2024 9:34 am

Really impressive that TCG was able to occur despite getting blasted by Kirk’s outflow. Wonder what the first NHC forecast will look like.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#38 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 02, 2024 9:47 am

Forecast from first advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 10.6N 29.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 10.5N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 11.0N 34.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 11.7N 35.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 13.5N 38.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 41.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#39 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 02, 2024 9:53 am

cycloneye wrote:Forecast from first advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 10.6N 29.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 10.5N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 11.0N 34.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 11.7N 35.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 13.5N 38.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 41.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

Much higher than I thought. Since the hurricane models show Kirk-induced shear for much of the forecast period, I was expecting TS intensity for at least 3-4 days with a peak of 60-70 kt at Day 5.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#40 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Oct 02, 2024 10:18 am

If this pans out and Thirteen becomes a hurricane, the season will be at least at 12/8/2-3. Definitely quality over quantity this year in terms of storms. Also hopefully an out-to-sea ACE producer.
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