ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2024093018, , BEST, 0, 101N, 241W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030, SPAWNINVEST, al732024 to al912024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912024.dat

[aspen]

This will be quite interesting to track. Good model consensus for a possible MDR major getting a lot further west than Kirk, however its proximity to Kirk will make it development and evolution tricky, and as I’ve mentioned before, I’m skeptical of these westward solutions.

Getting not one but two MDR majors in October would be something. Literally just Atlantic climo shifting back a month.

[underthwx]

This will be quite interesting to track. Good model consensus for a possible MDR major getting a lot further west than Kirk, however its proximity to Kirk will make it development and evolution tricky, and as I’ve mentioned before, I’m skeptical of these westward solutions.

Getting not one but two MDR majors in October would be something. Literally just Atlantic climo shifting back a month.

great post Aspen!...

[galaxy401]

Kirk is a big storm and strengthening quickly so I don't know how this will affect 91L. Might be one to watch down the road since it's going to move more west.

[cycloneye]

Kirk is a big storm and strengthening quickly so I don't know how this will affect 91L. Might be one to watch down the road since it's going to move more west.

What will future Leslie do is to skyrocket the ACE and with Kirk doing it's thing, may turn the season close to hyperactive on the ACE department.

[Buck]

Peak season activity was a little late, but it has definitely arrived. Would love this to bomb out and get classified while it’s still September… but probably not for a day or two.

[Hurricane2022]

Peak season activity was a little late, but it has definitely arrived. Would love this to bomb out and get classified while it’s still September… but probably not for a day or two.

A little late? a LITTLE late??

[al78]

Kirk is a big storm and strengthening quickly so I don't know how this will affect 91L. Might be one to watch down the road since it's going to move more west.

Often when there is a developing storm following closely behind a more mature storm, outflow from the latter imparts wind shear over the former, stifling development.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Kirk is a big storm and strengthening quickly so I don't know how this will affect 91L. Might be one to watch down the road since it's going to move more west.

Often when there is a developing storm following closely behind a more mature storm, outflow from the latter imparts wind shear over the former, stifling development.

The Euro shows 91L suffering along for a while until Kirk lifts out and then this system really bombs. If it misses the gap that Kirk is taking things could get spicy in the islands.

[cycloneye]

The evolution will not be as fast as Kirk, but once it does, it will takeoff. The only question is the track down the road.

[ElectricStorm]

I would think the longer this takes to develop the further west it could get. Considering Kirk will probably get pretty strong and shearing it, I'm not completely ruling out this getting pretty far west, although maybe not quite as far as the islands.

[galaxy401]

Kirk is a big storm and strengthening quickly so I don't know how this will affect 91L. Might be one to watch down the road since it's going to move more west.

Often when there is a developing storm following closely behind a more mature storm, outflow from the latter imparts wind shear over the former, stifling development.

Yeah I'm aware about that. The NHC has the chances already quite high so this might try to develop before Kirk bombs out and hinders it for some time. Of course it's all just guessing from me.

[Category5Kaiju]

Compared to Kirk, this system is quite low in latitude.

[cycloneye]

8 PM.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Satellite wind data indicate that a broad area of low pressure has
formed in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred
miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Showers and thunderstorms
continue to gradually increase in association with the system, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for further development. A
tropical depression is very likely to form during the next few days
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

ASCAT hits 91L. Circulation elongated but the same occured with Kirk when it was invest and look now.

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2024100100, , BEST, 0, 102N, 244W, 25, 1008, LO

[HurricaneRyan]

This could be an Edouard/Fran '96 setup possibly

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next
couple of days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like the circulation may of tightened up a little but it is been sheared by Kirk's outflow. 91L should improve once Kirk starts to move away from 91L in the next couple of days.

Source - https://col.st/qaftg

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2024100112, , BEST, 0, 106N, 256W, 25, 1007, LO