ATL: LESLIE - Models

[Teban54]

Models only here.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF is strong (950 mbs) but does not have a threat to the Lesser Antilles.

[cycloneye]

18z ICON.

[aspen]

18z ICON.

https://i.imgur.com/cc1VEWy.gif

Incredibly low latitude, comparable to Beryl but much further west. Perhaps that could be enough to miss the escape trajectory opened by Kirk.

[cycloneye]

Some models are more west than others.

[Blown Away]

This type of configuration seems to be the norm these days and won't allow much to make it to the Caribbean and/or CONUS...

[cycloneye]

[Cachondo23]

EC-AIFS model still has faith that this will go through the NE Caribbean.

[Iceresistance]

A 892 mb member has been discovered on the 12z Euro-ENS, it's likely from 91L


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SAerv.png

[Jelmergraaff]

A 892 mb member has been discovered on the 12z Euro-ENS, it's likely from 91L

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SAerv.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SAerv.png

It's ensemble member #35, and it not only shows a sub-900 minimum central pressure, but wind gusts of up to 398 km/h or 247 mph.

[cycloneye]

CMC is the only model that is the most closest to the northern Leewards.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro briefly goes west but then at the end turns north. Leslie would be a big ACE producer if it deepens like this model has at 932 mbs.

[cycloneye]

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

All models showing recurve but Euro is uncomfortably close to Bermuda. Reliably much farther west than all other models. Interesting that it is such a consistent outlier.

[kevin]

The Euro ensemble remains very aggressive and has another 892 mb member in the 00z version. In fact 25% of all members show a pressure below 930 mb for Leslie at +216 which (considering the timeframe and the fact that we're talking about the Euro here) is very impressive.

[cycloneye]

The Euro ensemble remains very aggressive and has another 892 mb member in the 00z version. In fact 25% of all members show a pressure below 930 mb for Leslie at +216 which (considering the timeframe and the fact that we're talking about the Euro here) is very impressive.

https://i.imgur.com/zkIEOtg.png

And two members track to the Leewards and PR.

[Travorum]

12z Euro ensemble shifts east compared to the 00z and comes in a little weaker. Still has many sub 930mb members, and a few sub 920mbs as well. One sole sub 910mb that I can see.

[CrazyC83]

I think, in general, a track farther west is stronger. If it follows the forecast track, it will be in the upwelled wake of Kirk, and likely significantly weaker.

[Blinhart]

So slim chance of going to Jamaica, but most likely will be a fish.

[aspen]

Massive downtrend on the 00z HAFS-A/B, showing a weak hurricane peak at most. Perhaps due to upwelling?