Shaun McKinnon and Mary Jo Pitzl
The Arizona Republic
Oct. 28, 2003 12:00 AM
The combination of the drought, trees damaged by bark beetles and a weak monsoon have Arizona fire officials worried about the potential for a fall fire season in some parts of the state.
But we're missing the hot, dry, windy weather that has turned a smattering of small blazes in California into a string of deadly infernos.
"Hot, dry and windy, that's it, those are the key elements in driving fire behavior," said Tim Brown, the director of the climate and fire programs at the Desert Research Institute in Reno.
"If you get a wildfire and it's not windy and not too dry, the initial attack could be very successful."
Officials in Coconino National Forest outside Flagstaff say fire danger will remain high through the weekend, when a storm is expected.
Dry conditions and 20-mph winds over the weekend prompted the danger warning, said Coconino spokeswoman Raquel Poturalski.
"We're in the same conditions we were in June, but the temperatures are lower," she said. "It's the cumulative effect of the drought. It takes more than one good soaking to saturate those logs."
Wildfires devastated high-country communities on Mount Lemmon outside Tucson this year and along the Mogollon Rim in last year's "Rodeo-Chediski" fire.
Those communities shared traits with residential areas burned in California, including the proximity of dry trees and brush and widespread damage caused by bark beetles.
Both fires also burned at the height of Arizona's wildfire season, which typically begins in late April or early May and extends into early July, one of the driest periods in a year. The season most often ends with the onset of the monsoon in July, when the weather turns wetter.
California's fire season, in contrast, generally runs from late August through October.
"If you've got 25 to 30 mph winds, no matter how many resources you bring in on it, it's going to be a challenge to get it contained," Brown said.
The bark beetle infestation, which has ravaged forests in Arizona, California and across the Southwest, is a symptom of a forest's poor conditions, said John Anhold of the U.S. Forest Service in Flagstaff.
"In California, they have forests that are out of whack, that are unhealthy," he said.
"Sometimes the beetle outbreaks and fires never really come together and then sometimes they do."
Dennis
