Iran Nuclear Standoff

[conestogo_flood]

I guess I'll start to stock up for war now...

Is anyone else feeling they should?

[cycloneye]

http://reuters.myway.com/article/200604 ... SA-DC.html

Iran responds to the news that came out on sunday.

[cycloneye]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12252300/

Bush says no military action is imminent at this time.But as I see things it's a matter that something is going to happen.

[Stratosphere747]

We don't have the capability to wage a war with Iran by ourselves due to the Iraqi mess. Bush knows this and why we are going the more diplomatic route. I also suspect that Israel has not put any pressure for movement *as of now* against Iran due to their own Intel.

[Windy]

I guess I'll start to stock up for war now...

Is anyone else feeling they should?

How does one 'stock up for war'?

Hopefully the tactical-nuke suggestion is just sabre-rattling. Actual battlefield first-strike use of a tactical nuclear weapon would likely motivate a great number of nations to immediately begin working on strategic nuclear weapons programs in order to deter such a threat. That's not what I'd call a desireable outcome. It seems unlikely that we'd actually consider doing this, but then we haven't exactly been exercising very intelligent strategy over the past half a decade or so, so who knows. I haven't got my issue of The New Yorker in the mail yet, but this will be one of the few that I actually anticipate.

[conestogo_flood]

I'm not sure, food/water? It was just an expression. I think this is nuts. Why do people engage in nuclear war? I don't think our leaders should decide whether they can end the world or not. That is just COMPLETELY STUPID. All this, other nations will fire if we launch crap... that is just plain stupid. If that ever happens, nothing can be done, but it will just... ugh just the thought pisses me off so much.

[JTD]

OMG

CNN just played a speech by the Iranian President. He said that Iran has now achieved enriched uranium as of February 20. The Iranian parliament broke out in chants.

How close does that bring them to a weapon?

From MSNBC: KUWAIT - Iran “will soon join the club of countries with nuclear technology,” Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Tuesday.

[x-y-no]

OMG

CNN just played a speech by the Iranian President. He said that Iran has now achieved enriched uranium as of February 20. The Iranian parliament broke out in chants.

How close does that bring them to a weapon?

From MSNBC: KUWAIT - Iran “will soon join the club of countries with nuclear technology,” Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Tuesday.

There's not a lot of information, so it's kind of hard to tell. Here's one of the few reports I've seen that gives any details at all:

Kuwait City, April 11, IRNA
Iran-Nuclear Program-Rafsanjani
Iran has succeeded in producing nuclear fuel in the first stage of Research and Development (R&D), by injecting gas into centrifuges, Chairman of the Expediency Council Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said on Tuesday.

Rafsanjani told KUNA that Iranian technicians have managed to produce fuel for the power plants by commissioning 164 centrifuges.

KUNA quoted Rafsanjani as saying that Director General of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Mohamed ElBaradei will see the new situation during his upcoming visit to Iran.

He said that Iran sees use of nuclear energy as its legitimate right in line with Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Safeguards Agreement of UN nuclear agency.

Now by my understanding, an array of 164 cetrifuges wouldn't be even close to adequate to produce weapons-grade uranium. So if this report is accurate, we're only talking about the production of fuel-grade uranium for their research reactor.

That said, the technology is the same for weapons-grade production. It's merely a matter of scaling things up. So the fact that they've achieved this much (if this claim is true) means that in principle they have the technological know-how to produce weapons-grade uranium.

[brunota2003]

TEHRAN, Iran - Iran has successfully enriched uranium for the first time, a landmark in its quest to develop nuclear fuel, hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Tuesday, although he insisted his country does not aim to develop atomic weapons.

In a nationally televised speech, Ahmadinejad called on the West "not to cause an everlasting hatred in the hearts of Iranians" by trying to force Iran to abandon uranium enrichment.

The announcement came ahead of a visit to Tehran this week by Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, who is trying to resolve the West's standoff with Iran. The U.N. Security Council has demanded Iran stop all enrichment activity by April 28. Iran has rejected this, saying it has a right to the process.

"At this historic moment, with the blessings of God almighty and the efforts made by our scientists, I declare here that the laboratory-scale nuclear fuel cycle has been completed and young scientists produced enriched uranium needed to the degree for nuclear power plants Sunday," Ahmadinejad said.

"I formally declare that Iran has joined the club of nuclear countries," he told an audience that included top military commanders and clerics in the northwestern holy city of Mashhad. The crowd broke into cheers of "Allahu akbar!" or "God is great!" Some stood and thrust their fists in the air.

The White House denounced the latest comments by Iranian officials, with spokesman Scott McClellan saying they "continue to show that Iran is moving in the wrong direction."

Ahmadinejad said Iran "relies on the sublime beliefs that lie within the Iranian and Islamic culture. Our nation does not get its strength from nuclear arsenals."

He said Iran wanted to operate its nuclear program under supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency and within its rights and regulations under the regulations of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The announcement does not mean Iran is immediately capable of producing enough fuel to run or a reactor or develop the material needed for a nuclear warhead. Uranium enrichment can produce either, but it must be carried out on a much larger scale, using thousands of centrifuges.

Iran succeeded in enriching uranium to a level needed for fuel on a research scale — using 164 centrifuges, officials said.

But the breakthrough underlined how difficult it will be for the West to convince Iran to give up enrichment.

Ahmadinejad made the announcement in a richly appointed hall of one of Iran's holiest cities in a ceremony clearly aimed at proclaiming the country's nuclear success.

Speaking before Ahmadinejad, Vice President Gholamreza Aghazadeh — the nuclear chief — said Iran has produced 110 tons of uranium gas, the feedstock that is pumped into centrifuges for enrichment. The amount is nearly twice the 60 tons of uranium hexaflouride, or UF-6, gas that Iran said last year that it had produced.

Aghazadeh said Iran plans to expand its enrichment program to be able to use 3,000 centrifuges by the end of the year.

The United States and some European countries accuse Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons, an accusation Tehran denies, saying it intends only to generate electricity.

The IAEA is due to report to the U.N. Security Council on April 28 whether Iran has met its demand for a full halt to uranium enrichment. If Tehran has not complied, the council will consider the next step. The U.S. and Europe are pressing for sanctions against Iran, a step Russia and China have so far opposed.

McClellan told reporters traveling on Air Force One with President Bush that Iran's enrichment claims "only further isolate" Tehran and underscore why the international community must continue to raise concerns about its suspected ambition to develop nuclear weapons.

McClellan noted the Security Council clock now running on Iran.

"This is a regime that needs to be building confidence with the international community," McClellan said. "Instead, they're moving in the wrong direction."

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said the Iranians' announcement "shows that they're not paying any attention to what the Security Council has said."

"And it shows why we feel a sense of urgency here that we have to have Iran realize the mistaken course it's pursuing," he told The Associated Press.

In Vienna, officials of the IAEA, whose inspectors are now in Iran, declined to comment.

A diplomat familiar with Tehran's enrichment program said the announcement appeared to be accurate. He demanded anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss information restricted to the agency.

The reported breakthrough came only two months after Iran resumed research on enrichment at its facility in the central town of Natanz in February. The resumption of work there prompted the IAEA to report Iran to the U.N. Security Council — escalating the standoff.

The enrichment process is one of the most difficult steps in developing a nuclear program. It requires a complicated plumbing network of pipes connecting centrifuges that can operate flawless for months or years.

The process aims to produce a gas high with an increased percentage of uranium-235, the isotope needed for nuclear fission, which is much rarer than the more prevalent isotope uranium 238.

A gas made from raw uranium is pumped into a centrifuge, which spins, causing a small portion of the heavier uranium-238 to drop away. The gas then proceeds to other centrifuges — perhaps thousands of them — where the process is repeated, increasing the proportion of uranium-235.

The enrichment process can take years to produce a gas rich enough in uranium-235 that it can be used to power a nuclear reactor or produce a bomb.

This is not good at all...

[cycloneye]

They may not be ready to have a nuclear bomb in a few months but if they decide to acelerate the production they may have it more sooner rather than later.

[cycloneye]

Above is an explanation about the proccess of enriching uranimun.Iran is on the first stages of this proccess.

[brunota2003]

TEHRAN (Reuters) - President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says Iran wants to achieve industrial-scale uranium enrichment, setting his country on a collision course with the United States which fears Tehran wants to make an atomic bomb.

On Tuesday, Ahmadinejad said Iran had successfully produced the enriched uranium needed to make nuclear fuel for the first time, triggering a warning from Washington that Tehran's latest declared nuclear advance could heighten international pressure.

Ahmadinejad said in a televised address: "I am officially announcing that Iran has joined the group of those countries which have nuclear technology. This is the result of the Iranian nation's resistance."

"Based on international regulations, we will continue our path until we achieve production of industrial-scale enrichment," he told officials and some ambassadors from regional states gathered in the northeastern city of Mashhad.

The United Nations has said Iran must halt uranium enrichment, a process Western nations fear Tehran wants to master so that it can develop nuclear weapons. Tehran insists its aims are entirely peaceful.

White House spokesman Scott McClellan said that Iran's announcement could force further talks among the U.N. Security Council powers.

"If the regime continues to move in the direction that it is currently, then we will be talking about the way forward with the other members of the Security Council and Germany about how to address this going forward," he said.

The State Department said it was unable to confirm Iran's announcement, and some experts said that even if Tehran's assertions were accurate, it would still be years before the Islamic state was able to produce a nuclear weapon.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the announcement gave "more weight to the international community to act in a concerted fashion," but some experts said it was unclear if Russia and China, veto-wielding members of the Security Council, would be willing to back sanctions.

DIALOGUE

China, which traditionally opposes slapping Iran with sanctions, urged a diplomatic solution.

"We still believe that negotiations and a diplomatic solution are the best way out of it," Wang Guangya, China's envoy to the United Nations, said in New York on Tuesday in comments carried by the official Xinhua news agency.

It was not immediately clear if Wang, who is also the current president of the Security Council, was speaking in direct reaction to Iran's announcement.

The Security Council has demanded Iran shelve enrichment activity, and on March 29 it asked the International Atomic Energy Agency to report on its compliance in 30 days.

IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei is expected to visit Iran later this week to seek full Iranian cooperation with the Council and IAEA inquiries. The announcement of advances in enrichment work casts an embarrassing cloud over that trip.

The IAEA had no immediate comment.

Iran, the world's fourth largest oil exporter, has one nuclear power plant under construction but has plans for more. It says it needs to make its own nuclear fuel to secure supply and has rejected U.N. demands to stop enrichment.

The high-profile announcement about Iran's nuclear achievements at a time when tensions with the West are already high, puzzled some analysts. But they said it could be grandstanding ahead of a possible softer approach to follow.

"They can say, 'we reached our rights, we reached our goals and it is not necessary to continue any more because we are able to do the job.' This is my guess," political analyst Saeed Laylaz said.

A Western diplomat said it was possible Iran was "putting on this drama to step back," but said this was still speculation. "It's totally the wrong signal," the diplomat added.

Reflecting anxiety about the nuclear dispute, investors shifted into the safe-haven Swiss franc after Iran's announcement, traders said. The nuclear dispute has also been a factor helping to push up oil prices to record levels.

The level of enrichment needed to trigger the nuclear chain reaction that detonates bombs is far higher than the 3.5 percent Iran says it has reached.

It would take Iran years to produce enough highly enriched uranium for one bomb with its current cascade of 164 centrifuges. But Iran has told the IAEA it will start installing 3,000 centrifuges later this year, enough to produce material for a warhead in a year.

um...can you say ow? looks like its becoming increasingly likely that some type of premptive (sp i know... ) strike will be ordered/needed within a year and about a half...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is looking very serious...

[Windy]

Somewhat serious, but it's all part of the dance right now. Iran wouldn't be doing this if they weren't well aware that America can't currently afford a largescale military action. They've timed it well. Any major military action at the moment would require a draft, something that isn't going to happen with the midterms and the next election coming up. Any airstrike of ours will lead to a major Iranian military offensive against Iraq, which would immediately erupt into civil war, demolishing everything we are trying to do there. Most of the rest of the world is interested in offsetting our attempts to monopolize power in the theatre, too, so it's not like Russia or China are going to lean on Iran.

I don't know what their game with Israel is, though. Maybe they're just upping the ante so that in the end whatever diplomatic solution they agree to will be more favorable to them. I can't imagine Israel allowing Iran to aquire atomic weapons, no matter how hard we lean on them.

[cycloneye]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12277578/



What many feared would happen will occur as Iran announced today that they will do large scale enrichment of uranimun meaning they will have the chance to make the bomb sooner rather than later.

[cycloneye]

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/04/12/D8GUJVRG2.html

Condi Rice calls for more stronger action by the U.N in terms of sanctions.But the question is if the U.N will have the teeth enough to punish Iran.

[alicia-w]

you stock up for war by buying lots and lots of sugar, flour, rice, canned goods, dried meats, bottled water, canned milk, stuff like that...
read up on some history and learn about things that were taken for granted that you couldnt get anymore (like stockings....). you can bet the gas prices will SOAR and you might have to think twice before driving to the store for a quart of milk or an oilcan of beer. things will change if we pursue war in three countries. a military assault on Iran will truly endanger our folks in Iraq even more than they are now.

[kevin]

The Iranians have the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz, attack Saudi oil facilities, mobilize the Shia in Iraq, use Hezbollah against northern Israel, and sustain their military structure much longer than the Iraqis were capable of holding out.

Victory against Iraq would be sealed, but the costs of victory are such to the American economy and military that sensible heads are prevailing on this issue for the time being. Nations act in their national interests, as those interests are defined by the governing class. In America our interests revolve around the gas pump, in Iran their interests revolve around the stability and security of the mullahs.

How those interests will mix is anything but certain.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If they get nukes then the only way smart to fight them is with nukes. You don't send a army or navy into a nuclear war. This is very bad but we have the upper hand with more nukes+ways to shoot them down.

[BEER980]

Iran Says Ready To Sign Non-Aggression Pact With Region

by Staff Writers
Tehran (AFP) Apr 12, 2006

Iran is ready to sign non-aggression pacts with countries in the region, the Islamic republic's defence minister was quoted as saying Tuesday. The comment came less than a week after military exercises were held to trumpet the Islamic republic's "homegrown" military achievements.
"Our exercises were welcomed by Muslims of the world, and they dismayed our enemies. Since (the exercises) were a message of peace and friendship, we are ready to sign non-aggression pacts with the regional countries," Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said. "Islamic Republic of Iran announces once again its readiness to hold a joint military exercise with regional countries," he was quoted as saying in Iranian dailies.

From March 31 to April 6, Iran staged major exercises along its strategic southern coast. The Islamic republic also unveiled a wide range of homegrown weaponry including various missiles and torpedoes. The war games were held in the Strait of Hormuz -- the narrow neck in the Gulf through which a third of the world's oil exports pass. The minister's comments also came amid reports in the US media that President George W. Bush was considering possible air strikes against Iran's nuclear sites.


Source: Agence France-Presse