STORM2K

Dazzled by data, economists see blue skies ahead
By Sue Kirchhoff, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Some economists are raising their forecasts for growth in the first quarter of 2004, based on surging consumer spending, rising factory orders and glimmers of a turnaround in the job market.
The better-than-expected performance is beginning to translate into rising consumer and business confidence. But it is also breeding concern in financial markets as traders worry the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates in the summer or early fall to keep the economy from overheating.

A Commerce Department report Tuesday that March retail sales posted the biggest jump in a year added to the interest rate concerns, helping push the Dow Jones industrial average down 134.28 points to 10,381.28 and send yields higher on 10-year Treasury notes. The Fed has been holding rates at a low 1%. (Related story: Retail sales surge in March)

"The implications of these data are massive," says Steve Stanley, chief economist at Greenwich Capital Markets, also responding to the retail sales report.

"Off the top of my head, I would say that we just moved from 4% gross-domestic-product growth in (the first quarter of 2004) to something like 5%."

The numbers refer to economic growth on an annualized basis.

Brian Wesbury of Griffin Kubik Stephens & Thompson, a Chicago-based investment bank, predicted the government could report a 6% growth rate in the GDP, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the USA. The GDP expanded at a 4.1% pace in the final months of 2003.

The government also reported Tuesday that factories and retailers built up inventories as they tried to keep pace with demand. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (Va.) said factory shipments in the five states it oversees hit the highest level since 1999.

The figures come after the Labor Department reported April 2 that the economy created more than 300,000 jobs in March — a sign the "jobless recovery" may be easing. Ten-year note yields have risen nearly half a percentage point since that report.

The better numbers may be slowly filtering into consumer confidence. Gallup Briefing poll data Tuesday showed 34% of Americans think this is a good time to look for a high-quality job. While hardly a ringing endorsement of the economy, the measure has risen from just 19% last August.

A survey of 1,200 businesses by the PNC Financial Services Group found that 88% of business owners were optimistic about the next six months, with 21% planning to add full-time employees.


OF COURSE, thats why the media didnt ask about the economy in the news conference. the liberal media is gagging over this, thats why they are giving kerry's idiotic new misery index so much publicity

Well put. Your points about the liberal media are dead on accurate.

You definitely nailed it on the head as far as the liberal media is concerned. As the lack of economy info last night wasn't enough, Bush's lack of in depth information last night at that news conference didn't help the liberal media one bit. It makes me wonder why liberals are for John Kerry anyway.

As for the economy and the job numbers, that I think will play one very key role in this upcoming Election. There is definitely issues about pre 9-11 intelligence and whether or not Bush and his adminstration even knew about the attacks in advance. The other issue involves the war. Sure we had to get rid of Saddam Hussein. But why not kill or capture Bin Laden first and focus on the war on terror as opposed to causing chaos in Iraq?

There's many issues facing this election and I think it will be a huge fight to the end.

more good news:

Grads see brighter job prospects
By Barbara Hagenbaugh, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Good news, Mom and Dad. Your soon-to-be college graduate might not have to move back home, after all.
After years of barely any activity, the job market for college seniors and graduate students finally appears to be picking up. Firms are interviewing more, giving more offers and even bumping up pay a bit.


Megan Wasserman graduates soon, but she already has a production assistant job for the Dr. Phil show.
Dan MacMedan, USA TODAY

While the market is nowhere near as strong as in the late 1990s — when the job market was so hot, firms were recruiting on beer-soaked beaches during spring break — a turnaround definitely appears to be taking shape.

"It is starting to pick up," says Carol Lyons, dean of career services at Northeastern University in Boston. "Not in any drastic way; in a slow, hopefully steady, way."

Andrew Ferguson, director of the career development center at the University of Richmond, calls this market more "normal," unlike the late 1990s. "It's actually been a decent year."

The same appears to be true for graduate students.

"This year is a definite improvement than earlier in this decade," says Dan Poston, director of the business school at the University of Washington in Seattle. The number of second-year MBAs at the University of Washington with job offers is up 20% from last year.

Megan Wasserman, 22, hasn't even gotten her diploma from Northeastern University but she has already started work as a production assistant at the Dr. Phil show, where the journalism student interned in the fall.

With enough credits to skip the final semester, Wasserman jumped at the chance for a full-time job with the show in Los Angeles when it was offered to her late last year.

"I'm one of the lucky ones," she says.

Grads finding jobs

Although there is little solid data about the current job market for college students, anecdotal evidence suggests things are getting better:

• Booz Allen Hamilton expects as many as 400 recent college graduates will start work in its government and technology group this fiscal year, which began April 1. Last year, 300 were hired, while the year before, 220 new college grads started work, says Judy Merkel, director of recruiting at the McLean, Va.-based consulting firm.

• The number of firms recruiting students at Georgetown University's business school is up 24% from a year ago. Half of second-year students have job offers, up from 40% at this time a year ago, says John Flato, director of MBA career management at the Washington, D.C., school.

• Enterprise Rent-A-Car plans to hire 6,500 college seniors for its management training program this year, up from about 6,000 last year.

• During the 2002-03 school year, 79 employers came to Southern Methodist University to interview students. This year to date, 124 firms have come to campus, a 57% increase.

SMU senior Joe Santos last week accepted a job with Comerica, a financial services firm in Detroit, after receiving four job offers. Santos, who is getting a degree in finance with a minor in psychology, even got a signing bonus.

"Last year I thought, 'Wow, it's going to be hard to find a job,' ... but it is far better than it was last year," the 22-year-old from Laredo, Texas, says.

Salaries higher

A sampling of universities across the country suggests hot areas this year are health care, accounting, defense, education, hospitality, insurance and even consulting, which had shown a large drop-off in earlier years.

Salaries are also up. More than half of college majors showed an increase in starting salary offers from a year ago in a recent study of career services officers by the National Association of Colleges and Employers.

Many career counselors also say they expect hiring to pick up in May, as more firms practice "just-in-time" hiring, rather than making offers months in advance, assuming the students will be needed down the road.

"Everybody is being cautious," says Leslye Ellison, director of career services at the University of New Mexico.

Julie Hochheiser, a senior at Boston University, is waiting until after graduation to try to find a job in the radio industry. "I tried to apply earlier this year, and I didn't get any responses," the 22-year-old from Potomac, Md., says.

Like other soon-to-be graduates, Hochheiser figures she will do another internship during the summer, even though she has already interned at National Public Radio, America Online, Disney and People magazine.

Such real-life experience is especially important now because, with the overall job market still fairly sluggish, college students are competing against young, laid-off workers with a few years of experience.

"Many of them are underemployed, and they are competing with (new) graduates for entry-level positions," Robert Johnson of the University of Dayton says.

Not only are students coming into the interview process with a fuller résumé than in years past, they also are preparing more, says Jason Farago, spokesman for money management firm Lord Abbett, which plans to surpass last year's hiring of 18 students. Students are studying up about the companies and asking good questions, he says. "The caliber of applicants has increased," he says. "In 2000, the question was, 'How big is my signing bonus going to be?' Now it's, 'Will I get a job?' "