STORM2K

As requested by Furry....here we GO!


Fire Weather Forecast for Thursday - April 29, 2004
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

SYNOPSIS: Moisture that produced isolated thunderstorms across southeast Arizona into western and central New Mexico on Wednesday afternoon will continue to be drawn north and east as a strong upper level storm system drops south across Utah on Thursday. Expect windy to very windy conditions areawide as this system advances closer to the region with the most critical combination of dry and windy conditions expected further south across mainly southern portions of the Geographic area. Further north, from northern Arizona eastward across all of northern New Mexico clouds will be on the increase on Thursday as will the likelihood of scattered wetting rains. The weather models continue to differ on the exact track of this weather system but agree that the system will begin to depart the southwest region by later Friday into first portion of Saturday. Improving conditions are expected this weekend with mostly sunny skies and much lighter winds before a warmup ensues into the first part of next week.

OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY: Becoming very windy areawide, with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely across northeastern Arizona eastward across all of northern New Mexico. A slight chance will exist for a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms across eastern Arizona into western and west-central New Mexico. Otherwise, partly cloudy west and south, becoming mostly cloudy north and east. Minimum humidity 10-15% across the western third of Arizona, parts of central New Mexico, and much of eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Expect from 15-35% across the remainder, except for 50% and up across northeastern Arizona into northern New Mexico. Winds southwest 20-35 mph with gust to 40-60 mph across central and eastern Arizona into western and west-central New Mexico, with southwest winds 15-25 mph and gusty most of the remainder of the region, except more southerly in direction across parts of west Texas. Winds will become east to northeast across extreme northeastern and eastern New Mexico later Thursday evening as a slow-moving cold front begins to move southward. High temperatures 50s mountains, 50s and 60s north, 70s and 80s at the lower elevations central and south.



OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: For Friday: Cooler and much less windy most areas. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy far southeast areas and west, partly to mostly cloudy with scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms north and far east. Minimum humidity up 10-20% central and east, but down 5-15% across western Arizona and much of southwest Texas. Winds north to northwest 10-25 mph with some stronger gusts, but north to northeast across northeast New Mexico and the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. Southwest to west winds 15-30 mph across extreme southern New Mexico into southwest Texas. High temperatures down about 10-20 degrees most areas, except for western and central Arizona and southwest Texas.

For Saturday: Mostly sunny and a slightly cooler west. Partly to mostly cloudy east, especially eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. A chance of showers northeast quadrant of New Mexico into the adjacent Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. Minimum humidity down 5-15% most areas. Winds north to northwest 5-15 mph west and central, north to northeast 10-20 mph east. High temperatures up about 5-15 degrees most of the east and central, up 5-10 degrees west.



Rich Naden

SWCC- Meteorologist

Bookmark this website for further reference:

http://www.fs.fed.us/r3/fire/

Dennis

Here's the link we use for some of our environmental studies:

http://www.fs.fed.us/r3/fire/swapredict ... afuels.htm

Dennis

Thanks snowman!

Your welcome Furry!

Here's a link for your area:

http://www.fs.fed.us/r5/fire/south/fwx/ ... index.html

Dennis

Opps.....wrong one "LOL!" Here, try THIS ONE!

http://www.fs.fed.us/r5/fire/south/fwx/ ... index.html


Dennis

Thats great snowman! Thanks so much for the link! Its in my fav. places!

No news to report on this front for a few days....thats really good news...considering the strong winds we've had!


I saw where you guys out in AZ are in such a horrible drought...I feel for you...Time to start doing a rain dance Steve and Dennis!......

We have a pretty big fire about 5 miles from our house in the wine country...we should be fine...saw it from highway coming in from Disney tonight...going to check it out now....passed another one about 10 miles N. of Temecula in Lake Elsinore too....

Hey Snowman...I'm trying to get some info on the latest wildfire in Temecula...We drove near it lastnight and it was just these massive flames engulfing the whole top of a hill/mountain, and it was so close to large neighborhoods....streets to homes were blocked off as well...anyway, I can't quite "get" the site you sent me, so if you have any info, pls let me know...our news isn't local right now, so I',m kinda stuck....


The fire ended up being more like 7-10 miles away, and not in the vineyards, but from where we are situated, I could see the smoke rising above the guys house across the street...pretty amazing...

I want to reiterate that we are fine though...there are 1000's and 1000's of homes between us and the fire.

Three Southern California wildfires prompt evacuations

The Associated Press

CAMP PENDLETON

Hundreds of firefighters spent the first day of Southern California's 2004 fire season battling three separate blazes that broke out in 100-degree heat and quickly blackened more than 2,000 acres.

The fires, which all started Sunday, had burned no homes but authorities urged hundreds of people living near two of them to evacuate. At least three firefighters suffered minor injuries.

The largest of the fires, near the Camp Pendleton Marine base, burned across approximately 1,000 acres and threatened about 200 homes located along the steep slopes of a nearby canyon. It was only about 5 percent contained early Monday.

Capt. Robert Ramirez of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said residents of unincorporated De Luz Canyon were urged to evacuate as firefighters from 10 agencies battled the blaze.

The cause of the fire was not immediately known.

Two other fires were burning out of control in Riverside County, one near Temecula and the other near Lake Elsinore.

The fires all broke out a day before the official start of Southern California's 2004 fire season, which was declared three weeks earlier than last year because of concerns about dangerous conditions caused by a lack of rainfall and a tree-killing bark beetle infestation.

The fires also began as Southern California was in the grip of a record-setting spring heat wave.

Hot weather records were set in at least 16 Southern California communities on Sunday, according to the National Weather Service. Temperatures in many areas ranged from the high 90s to the low 100s, with more of the same on tap Monday.

Of the other two fires, the largest, in the Wolf Valley southeast of Temecula, had burned about 750 acres by Monday morning and was 30 percent contained, said Capt. Rick Vogt of the California Department of Forestry.

"We are expecting hot, dry weather again with slight east winds, which will make the containment effort challenging," Vogt said.

He added that 935 firefighters were on the lines. One firefighter was felled by dehydration but he was not seriously hurt.

No structures had been lost, although residents of about 100 homes closest to the fire had been advised to evacuate. The Red Cross set up a shelter for them at the Temecula Community Recreation Center.

Many of the homes closest to the flames were in Dorland Mountain Colony, a small artists retreat.

The cause of the fire was under investigation, and Vogt said authorities were hoping to question three motorcycle riders seen in the area where it ignited Sunday afternoon. He wouldn't say if they were believed to have started the blaze, but asked that anyone who saw the motorcyclists in the area of Anza Road and Via Pascal contact Riverside County authorities.

The third fire, just east of Lake Elsinore, had burned across 290 acres and was about 45 percent contained Monday. About 340 firefighters were battling it, aided by water-dropping aircraft.

"Right now there are no homes or structures in danger. We had one outbuilding burned yesterday," said Phil McCormick, an emergency services coordinator for Riverside County.

He said full containment was expected by Tuesday afternoon.

One firefighter suffered heat stroke battling the blaze and another sprained an ankle.

Published: Monday, May 3, 2004 07:28 PDT

Eagle Fire

The Eagle Fire, which started about 3:15 p.m., burned into heavy brush near Highway 79 South and Los Caballos Road, about two miles from where it began southeast of Temecula.

About 160 firefighters were on the scene.

Lake Elsinore temperatures soared to a record-tying high of 101 degrees Sunday and combined with low humidity to create conditions ripe for wildfires.

Firefighters ordered the evacuation of the remote Dorland Mountain Arts Colony, an artist enclave in several rustic cabins just off Highway 79. The cabins have no electricity or telephone service. Evacuees from the arts colony were being taken to Vail Lake, where an emergency shelter was being established, Vogt said.

Authorities said voluntary evacuations were under way in the area known as the Woodchuck Campground about five miles east of Temecula.

Flames leaped into the darkening skies near Highway 79 and Los Caballos Road, an area of rolling hills and rugged terrain, some covered with thick chaparral. The area is also the site of a University of California research study on the migration and life cycle of the hummingbird.

Curtis Croulet, 59, of Temecula, who has been assisting in trapping and banding hummingbirds, said he was concerned about a caretaker who lives in a cabin on UC's Emerson Oaks Reserve, which includes spectacular centuries-old oak trees.

"If you look at that cabin with evil eyes, it will burst into flames," Croulet said.

The blaze was reported near Via Pascal and Anza Road. Residents said they saw three dirt-bike riders in the area right before the fire started and speculated a hot muffler or cigarette touched off the flames.

Fire officials want to question the motorcyclists. One bike was red, one was white and blue, and one was orange. Two riders wore white helmets and one wore silver. One rider had dark hair and a mustache.

The spot of the origin is just outside the Temecula city limits, an area where people own large lots and some board horses.






Horses evacuated

"It moved fast, very fast," said Geri Campbell, 39, who lives about a quarter-mile from where the fire broke out. "When I first spotted it, the fire was about the size of two cars. By the time I notified all the neighbors, it was 20 times that big."

Several residents began evacuating 17 Paint and Arabian horses from Saul Madrid's home, where he boards them.

The skittish horses were walked about a mile to safety. Flames reached within 500 feet of the residence.

"You could feel the heat," said Shelby Burson, 39, who helped move the horses. "It's just amazing how hot and fast it was. The smoke covered the sun. You get that eerie fire feeling. The fire just erupted. It was a pretty frantic hour or so."

Madrid, 42, said he was overwhelmed by his neighbors' quick response.

Besides the horses, Madrid's household also includes four children, seven birds, nine dogs and a rabbit.

"It put tears in my eyes," Madrid said. "The neighbors were a godsend. In that

We just left the fire area...it's really bad guys~ All the horse farms were being evacuated, these were farms that had already been shelters for the previous burn areas...this fire is eratic and out of control, and is giving the firefighters a very difficult time...so many people have been evacuated, and are just on the side of the road, holding their heads in their hands...frustrated watching the firey flames work through their land...Snowman, there is alot of courage and honor in what you do.....tipping my glass to you...

Very devestating...ALL of the places we were driving and taking pictures from earlier today are burned. It's simply amazing...the fire hopped the road we drove on for over 2 hours today...very humbling, this fire...

There are 5 major forrest fires around southern California burning out of control right now...I feel so badly for the people who are loosing their homes...


This is the latest fire information affecting the Temecula area as of Monday, May 03, 2004. It is now five to eleven at night.

Please note there are road closures on Hwy 79 South between Butterfield Stage and Vail Lake.

A fire, now being referred to as the Eagle Fire, started around 3 p.m. Sunday, May 2, 2004, just east of the City behind the Morgan Hill Development. The fire is burning in an easterly direction away from the City. It has grown considerably this afternoon and will continue to grow over the next day or two.

The fire is burning away from the City and onto the Pechanga Reservation and will then move into the Agua Tibia Wilderness area at some point in the near future.

The Community Recreation Center (CRC) has been opened as an evacuation shelter and there are currently 6 people staying there. The City will provide staffing and support, in conjunction with the Red Cross, to those assist those who have been displaced.

As of this time:
2,500 acres burned
30% contained
Mandatory evacuations for Woodchuck area and Dorland Art Colony
Voluntary evacuations for Vail Lake.

The good thing (if you can call it that) is that the winds are going to shift back onshore tomorrow, so the fire will have more moisture and should start to die down. But this means that it will keep moving to the east and threaten communities in tha direction.

We woke up to the smell of the fire inside our house....Brian called me outside to see ashes completely covering our car, grey ash piled up on the black window rubbers...ash flying everywhere...Does this mean the winds have shifted? I missed the local news, but heres the latest out of our paper...

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*
Eagle Fire
Nearly 950 firefighters from as far away as Fresno arrived in Temecula on Monday to help battle the Eagle Fire. By 3 p.m. Monday, officers with the California Highway Patrol closed Highway 79 at Anza Road and ordered a mandatory evacuation at the Woodchuck Campground, about three miles east of Anza Road on Highway 79.

As of 7 p.m., the Eagle Fire was threatening at least 100 homes and numerous campsites in the Vail Lake area, said Capt. Rick Vogt, spokesman for California Department of Forestry.

"We're basically down to really little containment," said Vogt, who blamed a sudden surge in winds for the fire's unpredictable behavior. "We had very explosive fire behavior."

As of 4 p.m., the fire had burned more than 2,500 acres, and, Vogt said, he expects the fire will expand significantly overnight.

Two houses on Los Caballos Road were destroyed by the fire, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.

A small city of fire crews and officials sprung up at Vail Lake Resort. Convict crews and firefighters from across the state assembled between shifts at the makeshift camp, which were outfitted with portable showers, restrooms, cooking facilties and sleeping areas.

At one point, firefighters used air tanker drops, hoses and backfires to keep flames away from the tent city.

Mitchell E. Villalpando, deputy chief of the Sycuan Fire Department in El Cajon, was helping fight the Eagle Fire on Monday and said the vegetation is as dry now as it would normally be in July.

"We're battling some high temperatures, winds and some extreme terrain," Villalpando said. "It's really flaring up on some of those ridges."

Close calls

The fast-moving wall of the Eagle Fire, which created a tornado effect of flames, made huge leaps on both sides of Highway 79 south, driving residents from their homes with little warning.

"At first I wasn't scared because it was so far away," said Kassie Jennings, a resident of the Dripping Spings Ranch area, who together with relatives quickly evacuated with their cat, two pickups and a travel trailer with their most precious belongings.

"When we saw the flames, we decided to pack up the stuff and get out," Jennings said.

Bob and Cathey Zimmer, who live on a 30-acre farm at the south end of Los Caballos Drive, had a face-to-face view of the fire Sunday and Monday.

"The intensity of the fire we could just feel it," Cathey said. "And the intense roar of the fuel was unbelievable."

The flames stopped 30 yards from the Zimmers' home.

Two months ago, the Zimmers created a fire break around their property with a bulldozer. On Monday, the couple credited the fire break with saving their home.

"We dodged a bullet," said Bob, a dentist who moved to the area four years ago. "This could have gotten real worse real easy."

Other fires
Fire crews were fighting at least two other wildfires Monday between Camp Pendleton and Corona.

The Gafford Fire, burning in the Sedco Hills area between Lake Elsinore and Wildomar, had burned 375 acres by 11 a.m. Officials said the fire was 60 percent contained by 5 p.m. Monday.

"We expect full containment by tomorrow evening," said Battalion Chief Tim Williams, who is overseeing the fire.

No homes have been destroyed by the Gafford Fire, Williams said.

Fire engineer Dwight Bowman, with the Kern County Fire Department, stood in a back yard talking on a radio to other members of his strike team on a nearby ridge.

"It's pretty unusual to be dispatched with a strike team this early in the season," said Bowman, who left Kern County at 1 a.m. Monday with a crew of five trucks.

A fourth fire burned more than 1,500 acres on Camp Pendleton. No structures were damaged and no injuries were reported in the fire, which was started Sunday in an artillery training area.

The cause of the both the Eagle and Gafford fires, which started within 10 minutes of each other at around 3:20 p.m. Sunday, have not been determined. Officials are looking for three men seen on motorcycles in the area of the Eagle Fire just before the blaze broke out.

"They're not considered suspects, but they may have information about the fire," said Lorri Larson, a spokeswoman with California Department of Forestry.

Anyone with information is asked to call (800) 633-2836.

Staff writers Henri Brickey, Jamie Ayala, Stefanie Frith, and Shannon Starr contributed to this story.

THat is some scary news fur. I hope and pray you all stay safe.

Thanks j...I still think we are totally safe from this one, but it's pretty frightening, and watching it destroy, was devestating...1000's of horses were being evacuated, and we wanted to help so badly, but without a horse trailer or a truck you could hook one up to, we were useless there. I hate that feeling...The flames were cresting the last hill closest to the horse farms...finally all the people evacuating the horses were told to leave immediatly, and they cut the power in that valley due to the impending flames...
It's just amazing that many of the campgrounds we had checked out yesterday morning, way far away from the fire, were burned in the evening...the fire hopped the road we were traveling on, and the spot we took so many pictures from was engulfed in flame just 2 hours after we left it...

I remember the wildfires in FL, Edgewater area, in 98, I think, but somehow being there, and seeing these, smelling it and feeling it...it feels like a first...and my heart breaks for all the loss...I just hope all the horses got moved...the news hasn't said...People can get in their cars and be gone in minutes, horses in pens, can't help themselves...

UPDATE :

4,800 acres burned 30% contained...
The Dorland community has been completely destroyed, which is a local artists commune...the fire in the next town over has burned over 9000 acres to date...

Hazy skies, can't see the sun, so much smoke coverage, winds seem pretty calm though, which is a very good thing!

I want to know:

Why, every time it gets to be hot here; does a fire have to start??

Good question Josh...the Eagle fire (Temecula) has moved quite away from here, but unfortunatly is still wreaking havoc where its moving...hoping for clear skies tomorrow