The 2004 Elections
Posted: Fri Jul 30, 2004 8:52 pm
Here is some interesting facts pollwise that I have gathered today.
Disclaimer: We all know how reliable polls can be, but if you will notice the trends, it makes this race even tighter than we may even currently think in some states you might not think of "battleground states".
ALABAMA: 9 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by approx 15% in 2000.
*Latest polling (albeit in late June) shows Bush with a commanding lead of approximately 15-17%. Nothing spectacular here.*
ARKANSAS: 6 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by approx. 6% in 2000.
*Bush originally had between 6-8% lead earlier this year, but it has trended to a Kerry lead in much of June. Polls up through July 23rd have begun to swing back in Bush's favor, approx. 3% lead for Bush.*
ARIZONA: 10 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by 6% in 2000.
*Bush has been showing between 10-15% leads ahead of Kerry in this state in the last several months. However, the latest polls indicate a narrowing of this gap to closer than 3%. One poll in Arizona now has Kerry leading*
CALIFORNIA: 55 E.C. VOTES
Gore carried this state by 11% in 2000.
*This state is closer than many people may believe. Percentage leads for Kerry range from 7-13%. It had been even closer earlier this year, especially in May. Kerry has been increasing the gap since then.*
COLORADO: 9 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by 9% in 2000.
*This state should definitely be in the toss-up category. No polls have been conducted publicly since midJune, but Bush only holds leads in all polls of around 5-7%.*
FLORIDA: 27 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by 0.01% in 2000.
*This state has been flip-flopping in polls almost as much as John Kerry on the campaign trail
... in June, Kerry held leads in some polls by as much as 6-8%, but the race has tightened and Bush now leads in the latest polls within the last week to between 0.1-3%.*
IA: 7 E.C. VOTES
Gore carried this state by 1% in 2000.
*Kerry leads in every poll in this state, with the exception of 1. However, the lead is always in the MOE. This state is anyone's for the taking.*
ME: 4 E.C. VOTES
Gore carried this state by 5%.
*Suprisingly, Maine is very close this time around. An earlier lead in this state's polls of around 20% earlier this summer has dwindled to between 1-3%.*
MI: 17 E.C. VOTES
Gore carried this state by 5%.
*This state which had been trended in Bush's favor in May and early June has now turned more decidedly for Kerry. Most polls has Kerry leading in this state from 5-11%.*
MO: 11 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by 4%.
*This state was polling well for Bush all year, even being up some 11% points by the LA Times earlier this summer. Since then, Kerry has narrowed the gap, but is statistically a tie or within 1% in most polls.*
NV: 5 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state 4%.
* This state also was originally polling well for Bush earlier in the year, but the race has tightened considerably. Recent polls say Kerry is ahead, no Bush, no Kerry, no Bush. Who knows? This state is a toss-up.*
NH: 4 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by 1%.
*The only New England state that voted for Bush is trending Kerry in the latest polls. Most have him leading from 2-9%. That doesn't guarantee victory though.*
NC: 15 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by 13% in 2000.
*Latest polls show Bush's lead in the Tarheel state is down to the single digits. Bush still leads in every poll done in the state, however.*
OH: 20 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by 4%.
*The polls are all over the place. Bush leads, then Kerry leads, then Bush, etc. ad nauseum. The important thing... all leads are all within the MOE. I imagine Ohio will probably be the most visited state in this election.*
TN: 11 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by 3% in 2000.
*Bush has had a major lead in this state throughout 2004, by as much as 23% at times, up until recently, when polls have shown a dramatic shift to the Kerry campaign in the state. In fact the latest poll shows Kerry and Bush tied completely, down to the tenth of a percent.*
****THESE ARE JUST THE CLOSEST/MOST NOTABLE RACES FROM POLLS I COULD FIND. I COMPILED THIS REPORT THROUGH SEVERAL SOURCES INCLUDING: SURVEY USA, ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL, ARG, AND REAL CLEAR POLITICS.****
Disclaimer: We all know how reliable polls can be, but if you will notice the trends, it makes this race even tighter than we may even currently think in some states you might not think of "battleground states".
ALABAMA: 9 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by approx 15% in 2000.
*Latest polling (albeit in late June) shows Bush with a commanding lead of approximately 15-17%. Nothing spectacular here.*
ARKANSAS: 6 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by approx. 6% in 2000.
*Bush originally had between 6-8% lead earlier this year, but it has trended to a Kerry lead in much of June. Polls up through July 23rd have begun to swing back in Bush's favor, approx. 3% lead for Bush.*
ARIZONA: 10 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by 6% in 2000.
*Bush has been showing between 10-15% leads ahead of Kerry in this state in the last several months. However, the latest polls indicate a narrowing of this gap to closer than 3%. One poll in Arizona now has Kerry leading*
CALIFORNIA: 55 E.C. VOTES
Gore carried this state by 11% in 2000.
*This state is closer than many people may believe. Percentage leads for Kerry range from 7-13%. It had been even closer earlier this year, especially in May. Kerry has been increasing the gap since then.*
COLORADO: 9 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by 9% in 2000.
*This state should definitely be in the toss-up category. No polls have been conducted publicly since midJune, but Bush only holds leads in all polls of around 5-7%.*
FLORIDA: 27 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by 0.01% in 2000.
*This state has been flip-flopping in polls almost as much as John Kerry on the campaign trail
... in June, Kerry held leads in some polls by as much as 6-8%, but the race has tightened and Bush now leads in the latest polls within the last week to between 0.1-3%.*
IA: 7 E.C. VOTES
Gore carried this state by 1% in 2000.
*Kerry leads in every poll in this state, with the exception of 1. However, the lead is always in the MOE. This state is anyone's for the taking.*
ME: 4 E.C. VOTES
Gore carried this state by 5%.
*Suprisingly, Maine is very close this time around. An earlier lead in this state's polls of around 20% earlier this summer has dwindled to between 1-3%.*
MI: 17 E.C. VOTES
Gore carried this state by 5%.
*This state which had been trended in Bush's favor in May and early June has now turned more decidedly for Kerry. Most polls has Kerry leading in this state from 5-11%.*
MO: 11 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by 4%.
*This state was polling well for Bush all year, even being up some 11% points by the LA Times earlier this summer. Since then, Kerry has narrowed the gap, but is statistically a tie or within 1% in most polls.*
NV: 5 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state 4%.
* This state also was originally polling well for Bush earlier in the year, but the race has tightened considerably. Recent polls say Kerry is ahead, no Bush, no Kerry, no Bush. Who knows? This state is a toss-up.*
NH: 4 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by 1%.
*The only New England state that voted for Bush is trending Kerry in the latest polls. Most have him leading from 2-9%. That doesn't guarantee victory though.*
NC: 15 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by 13% in 2000.
*Latest polls show Bush's lead in the Tarheel state is down to the single digits. Bush still leads in every poll done in the state, however.*
OH: 20 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by 4%.
*The polls are all over the place. Bush leads, then Kerry leads, then Bush, etc. ad nauseum. The important thing... all leads are all within the MOE. I imagine Ohio will probably be the most visited state in this election.*
TN: 11 E.C. VOTES
Bush carried this state by 3% in 2000.
*Bush has had a major lead in this state throughout 2004, by as much as 23% at times, up until recently, when polls have shown a dramatic shift to the Kerry campaign in the state. In fact the latest poll shows Kerry and Bush tied completely, down to the tenth of a percent.*
****THESE ARE JUST THE CLOSEST/MOST NOTABLE RACES FROM POLLS I COULD FIND. I COMPILED THIS REPORT THROUGH SEVERAL SOURCES INCLUDING: SURVEY USA, ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL, ARG, AND REAL CLEAR POLITICS.****