Hurricane Talk here on the Texas Gulf Coast.....
Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2003 6:21 am
La Nina effect could bring major storms to Texas coast this year
By KEVIN MORAN
Copyright 2003 Houston Chronicle
GALVESTON -- Official hurricane season forecasts aren't out yet, but climatic conditions this year are similar to those in years when deadly, highly damaging storms such as Hurricane Alicia in 1983 and Hurricane Carla in 1961 struck the Texas coast.
"We've noted that since 1900, every major hurricane that hit the Texas coast occurred during a non-El Niño year, like the type of summer and fall we're expecting," Bill Proenza, National Weather Service southern regional director, told nearly 300 people attending the first-ever Texas State Hurricane Conference.
El Niño and La Niña effects are the unusual warming and cooling, respectively, of tropical Pacific waters that can affect weather worldwide.
Indications are that this year's weather will tend toward a La Niña effect, in which cooler Pacific Ocean waters tend to support an increased number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, Proenza said.
"The El Niño effect, which tends to dampen the number of tropical storms and hurricanes formed in the Caribbean and in the Atlantic, is waning at this time," Proenza said. "We're looking into the summer months and saying that we're going to be in either a neutral situation or a La Niña effect."
But even if the 2003 hurricane season, which begins June 1, brings just a few storms, the weather service's message to Texans is the same as if a dozen hurricanes were sure to strike.
"Any year can be a major threat to Texas," Proenza said.
While everyone hopes for the best, current conditions make it all the more important for coastal residents to be prepared for the worst, Proenza said.
Coastal counties have experienced considerable rainfall this year and the soil water content already is high, Proenza said.
No protracted drought is expected this year, he said.
"Any tropical storm that hits Texas under these conditions could be a significant flood threat for that area," Proenza said, harkening back to 2001's Tropical Storm Allison, which dumped more than 2 feet of rain on parts of Houston, killed 21 people and caused $5 billion in damages.
Officials from Galveston, Chambers and Jefferson counties described how they decided whether to recommend mass evacuations of coastal cities and counties as Hurricane Lili threatened the upper Texas coast last October.
Galveston Mayor Roger "Bo" Quiroga said he chose not to recommend Galvestonians evacuate because National Hurricane Center experts and others stuck to predictions that the storm would take a northeast turn.
Jefferson County Judge Carl Griffith Jr. said Lili threatened his county more than it did Galveston County. He and other officials recommended evacuation rather than risk the storm failing to turn away and having thousands of people caught at home, Griffith said.
Lessons learned from a chaotic evacuation in 1992 as Hurricane Andrew threatened Jefferson County, and plans developed since then made for a staged, orderly evacuation of perhaps 65 percent of county residents in well under 24 hours, Griffith said.
By KEVIN MORAN
Copyright 2003 Houston Chronicle
GALVESTON -- Official hurricane season forecasts aren't out yet, but climatic conditions this year are similar to those in years when deadly, highly damaging storms such as Hurricane Alicia in 1983 and Hurricane Carla in 1961 struck the Texas coast.
"We've noted that since 1900, every major hurricane that hit the Texas coast occurred during a non-El Niño year, like the type of summer and fall we're expecting," Bill Proenza, National Weather Service southern regional director, told nearly 300 people attending the first-ever Texas State Hurricane Conference.
El Niño and La Niña effects are the unusual warming and cooling, respectively, of tropical Pacific waters that can affect weather worldwide.
Indications are that this year's weather will tend toward a La Niña effect, in which cooler Pacific Ocean waters tend to support an increased number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, Proenza said.
"The El Niño effect, which tends to dampen the number of tropical storms and hurricanes formed in the Caribbean and in the Atlantic, is waning at this time," Proenza said. "We're looking into the summer months and saying that we're going to be in either a neutral situation or a La Niña effect."
But even if the 2003 hurricane season, which begins June 1, brings just a few storms, the weather service's message to Texans is the same as if a dozen hurricanes were sure to strike.
"Any year can be a major threat to Texas," Proenza said.
While everyone hopes for the best, current conditions make it all the more important for coastal residents to be prepared for the worst, Proenza said.
Coastal counties have experienced considerable rainfall this year and the soil water content already is high, Proenza said.
No protracted drought is expected this year, he said.
"Any tropical storm that hits Texas under these conditions could be a significant flood threat for that area," Proenza said, harkening back to 2001's Tropical Storm Allison, which dumped more than 2 feet of rain on parts of Houston, killed 21 people and caused $5 billion in damages.
Officials from Galveston, Chambers and Jefferson counties described how they decided whether to recommend mass evacuations of coastal cities and counties as Hurricane Lili threatened the upper Texas coast last October.
Galveston Mayor Roger "Bo" Quiroga said he chose not to recommend Galvestonians evacuate because National Hurricane Center experts and others stuck to predictions that the storm would take a northeast turn.
Jefferson County Judge Carl Griffith Jr. said Lili threatened his county more than it did Galveston County. He and other officials recommended evacuation rather than risk the storm failing to turn away and having thousands of people caught at home, Griffith said.
Lessons learned from a chaotic evacuation in 1992 as Hurricane Andrew threatened Jefferson County, and plans developed since then made for a staged, orderly evacuation of perhaps 65 percent of county residents in well under 24 hours, Griffith said.
