Bush Leading in Crucial States to Dems
Posted: Mon May 19, 2003 2:32 am
While the nation generally remains closely divided, the balance has shifted at the top of the political ticket, with President Bush showing surprising strength in states Democrats will need in 2004, pollsters say.
Democrats are counting on the public's attention shifting back toward the troubled economy with the war in Iraq over, but it's far from clear that shift automatically will work to their advantage.
Bush's postwar bounce should fade in another six or seven months, said pollster Larry Hugick of Princeton Survey Research Associates. Before the war with Iraq, Bush's standing was returning to levels before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
But Hugick acknowledged that new international crises or an easing of economic problems could halt that downward trend.
For now, Bush's position in states crucial to the Democratic support base makes clear the difficulties Democrats face.
"The parties remain pretty balanced," said Robert Shapiro, a public opinion specialist at Columbia University. "We have competitive elections for control of the House and the Senate. Where we find the imbalance is in regard to the presidency."
The presidential race will be fought out state by state, especially so in those key to a Democratic victory. Some state pollsters attending the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research offered their views over the weekend.
_In New York, Bush is very popular and leads the Democratic candidates in head-to-head matchups in the Democratic-leaning state, said Doug Schwartz, director of the Quinnipiac poll. "If the Democrats don't hold onto New York, there's no way they can win the nation," he said.
_In New Jersey, Bush is more popular than Democratic Gov. Jim McGreevey, who is wrestling with budget headaches and other political problems, said Cliff Zukin, director of the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University and a pollster.
_In Minnesota, a competitive state won by Democrat Al Gore in 2000, Bush is popular overall and his ratings on the war are strong, although he is more vulnerable on the economy, said Robert Daves, a pollster at the Star Tribune newspaper in Minneapolis.
_In California, the president is relatively popular among Hispanics, which could help neutralize a Democratic trend in the state in recent years, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll.
"The burden is on the Democrats to put forth a credible candidate," said Charles Franklin, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "They have another problem of creating any kind of credible support for Democratic foreign policy and anti-terrorism policy."
Even if public attention shifts toward the economy, the public may give Bush credit for trying to improve it, said Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup poll.
"Bush has been pushing tax cuts in the face of public indifference," he said. "But if you take something and push it, it shows you're interested."
The potency of the economy as an issue for Democrats may require a shift from public worries about the economy to concerns their own personal situations, Eagleton's Zukin said.
Pollsters are closely watching Bush's position in the polls overall and on the economy for signs of weakness. They note that his approval rating had been dropping steadily before the spike upward with the war against Iraq.
But while the pollsters say they expect to see an increased public focus on the economy in the coming months, many acknowledged the fears over terrorism will remain a potent and unpredictable factor.
Democrats are counting on the public's attention shifting back toward the troubled economy with the war in Iraq over, but it's far from clear that shift automatically will work to their advantage.
Bush's postwar bounce should fade in another six or seven months, said pollster Larry Hugick of Princeton Survey Research Associates. Before the war with Iraq, Bush's standing was returning to levels before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
But Hugick acknowledged that new international crises or an easing of economic problems could halt that downward trend.
For now, Bush's position in states crucial to the Democratic support base makes clear the difficulties Democrats face.
"The parties remain pretty balanced," said Robert Shapiro, a public opinion specialist at Columbia University. "We have competitive elections for control of the House and the Senate. Where we find the imbalance is in regard to the presidency."
The presidential race will be fought out state by state, especially so in those key to a Democratic victory. Some state pollsters attending the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research offered their views over the weekend.
_In New York, Bush is very popular and leads the Democratic candidates in head-to-head matchups in the Democratic-leaning state, said Doug Schwartz, director of the Quinnipiac poll. "If the Democrats don't hold onto New York, there's no way they can win the nation," he said.
_In New Jersey, Bush is more popular than Democratic Gov. Jim McGreevey, who is wrestling with budget headaches and other political problems, said Cliff Zukin, director of the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University and a pollster.
_In Minnesota, a competitive state won by Democrat Al Gore in 2000, Bush is popular overall and his ratings on the war are strong, although he is more vulnerable on the economy, said Robert Daves, a pollster at the Star Tribune newspaper in Minneapolis.
_In California, the president is relatively popular among Hispanics, which could help neutralize a Democratic trend in the state in recent years, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll.
"The burden is on the Democrats to put forth a credible candidate," said Charles Franklin, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "They have another problem of creating any kind of credible support for Democratic foreign policy and anti-terrorism policy."
Even if public attention shifts toward the economy, the public may give Bush credit for trying to improve it, said Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup poll.
"Bush has been pushing tax cuts in the face of public indifference," he said. "But if you take something and push it, it shows you're interested."
The potency of the economy as an issue for Democrats may require a shift from public worries about the economy to concerns their own personal situations, Eagleton's Zukin said.
Pollsters are closely watching Bush's position in the polls overall and on the economy for signs of weakness. They note that his approval rating had been dropping steadily before the spike upward with the war against Iraq.
But while the pollsters say they expect to see an increased public focus on the economy in the coming months, many acknowledged the fears over terrorism will remain a potent and unpredictable factor.
As I said before NO ONE could have done better given the challanges he has faced thus far!! 
Yeesh... I don't know if it has to do with people not caring or the fact that so many people are uninformed. It is kind of scary when you think about it. :o