STORM2K

Well, it's 110 as I write this message, and straight out my back windows on the horizon is a formidable looking pyrocumulus cloud being fed by a wildfire that basically cranked up today about 20 miles north of here.

Dry conditions prevail throughout the region, and the McDowell Mountains and Sonoran Preserve just a few blocks from me are being kept off limits as a result.

Evacuations are taking place near Carefree, Arizona, as well as the Tonto Verde area about 20 miles northeast of me. Fortunately right now, the winds are taking that fire further away from some more dense homes and developments in the region.

Last night, however, at sundown, a gusty E to NE surface flow of winds rushed downslope out of those mountains here along this part of Scottsdale. A repeat of that this evening would surely spread the wildfire into populated areas downslope.

A gradual cooling trend is expected this week but temps will be above 100 every afternoon.

Be happy to send you a photo of the pyrocumulus cloud just taken at 5 pm local time from my vantage point in the back yard. Just drop me a PM or email.

Just so you know...I am not threatened in any way here at the house.

Steve

Very glad to know your home is safe Steve. Keep us informed. I hope it rains soon too!

Mary

Overnight downslope winds combined with a fire-encouraged thunderstorm just north of our house found most of Scottsdale in heavy dense smoke at ground level this morning. Clearly, as I drove away from home and toward the west on my way to work, it appears there are now at least two fires just north of Scottsdale that may be merging.

Many of the homes in the Carefree area are on lots of an acre or more, so they are not nearly so dense as those about 3 miles farther south of the fire's perimeter right now.

Southwest winds are expected to pick up strength during the day which will clear out the smoke once again...but cause erratic behavior with the fire itself. The temperature is expected to top out around 110 this afternoon once again.

Some 13,000 acres have burned thus far since yesterday. You can see the smoke and cloud plume on the SW visible satellite photo.

Other than the nasty smoke odor hanging over the house this morning, once again I will remind you we are personally in no danger from this fire.

A mid-morning update...30,000 acres burned now...and growing to the northeast. A tricky day today as winds are beginning to pickup.

I saw this on the news this morning. Hopefully they'll get this under control soon.

This fire is up to 46,000 acres and only 5% contained but is moving AWAY from inhabited areas.

With thunderstorms popping this afternoon, though, we hope that no new fires get started. Winds will be brisk over the weekend, and air will be drying out...so let's hope for the best.

Steve, I am glad to hear the fires are heading away from homes! I pray they will contain it soon and the weather co-operates for you guys there.

The fire has been moving away from the metro areas, and if you have ever been to Arizona, you realize there is a whole lot of open country to the north and east of Phoenix. But even that is not endless, and firefighters have put their hopes in stopping the fire before it crosses a significant roadway between here and the higher country.

79,000 acres burned so far...and on my way home from work today (yes, I do often work on Sundays), I could not only see smoke but flame atop a ridge north of the town of Cave Creek. That, at least to me, indicated that either accidentally or intentionally, the fire is not just moving north, but also coming south. Can't be far at all from the many ranches and homes in the Cave Creek area.

I can still clearly see the smoke plume right out my kitchen window...so although it is no threat...it is a constant reminder.

Temperatures are expected to near or top 110 again this week with DRIER conditions and less humidity.

In my view, this may be a week to really worry about....especially with the holiday weekend just a few days away.

Haven't heard yet of any firework cancellations...but that would not surprise me either.

Stay tuned.

Here's the update.

As of daybreak today, the fire was 20% contained and had crossed the roadway that had been targeted as a control point. It is burning miles north of Phoenix but the smoke could still be seen on my way to work.

With a southward drift, a thin layer of smoke, perhaps 300-500 feet thick, extended all the way back (perhaps 20 miles or more) along the ground into Phoenix. The air was heavy and the smell of smoke pungent here at work. I have ordered all doors be kept closed as much as possible to avoid the odor getting into the production and office area.

92,000 acres makes the Cave Creek complex fire the third largest brush fire of record...and with gustier winds and very dry afternoon air, it is not likely to be easy to contain.

Again...though...no risk to any major metropolitan areas, but it is in more rugged terrain now making it more difficult to reach.

Stay safe my friend. I'd love to see any pictures you have available.

Fire continues to move away, but hot (110) temps and higher winds on Tuesday (up to 30+ mph) will keep it growing. Over 102,000 acres as of mid afternoon.

The smoke is clearly visible from almost any higher location in north Phoenix even though it is probably more than 30 miles away.

The smoke plume from the Cave Creek complex can be seen on the PHX and FLG radars as well as the hi-res (1km) visual satellite loops.

Steve

Talked with my Arizona sister last night.....(near Prescott Valley)

They can see 3 seperate fires from their mountain top home. Her husband spent the day bulldozing a huge, wide path circling their home, which is a huge steel building.

Two years ago, a fire crew stayed at their house during the last episode; they were told that "normal" conditions would be a natural burning every 7 to 10 years......it has been 70

I am visiting her from the 20th to the 28th of July.....anxious to see....p

Wednesday morning update. 152,000 acres now and spreading still. Hot dry weather will continue, so not much moisture or humidity to help the cause. Not quite as much wind as yesterday, but this fire is in tough terrain.

It remains about two days away from the escarpment known as the Mogollon Rim...a land feature that literally rises some 3,000 feet above the desert floor in some locations. If it reaches the rim country, it could jump quickly north to the quaint towns of Pinetop and Strawberry where summertime finds thousands of valley residents heading to their cabins on the 4th of July weekend.

A sidebar note...perhaps the world's largest Saguaro cactus, at 46' tall and 7 1/2' diamater at the base, was scorched by the fire and may not survive.

Oh, if that cactus could talk would it have stories to tell. From what I've read it takes nearly 70 years for one of them to grow just one arm. This one is loaded.

Smoke is still clearly visible from my kitchen window this morning.

Things were a bit bone dry yesterday with Luke AFB reporting 108F with a dewpoint of -4F and winds of 15-30 mph. The dry air aloft mixed down to the surface big time.

Steve

By midafternoon, two more fires broke out much closer to Phoenx. One in Buckeye, Arizona, to the west sent a smoke plume toward the troposphere that blocked the sun for a good part of the afternoon here at my home about 40 miles northeast.

Then, on my way home, I could see a significant new fire and smoke plume to the southeast...somewhere toward the Superstition Mountains.

We have a dewpoint of 13 this afternoon with a temperature at 6 pm of 103. Relative humidity just 3%.

More to come, I'm sure.

Don't quite know what to wish for. Many monsoon storms bring lightning and no rain....along with wind. Don't need that right now either.

Wish us luck.

I just saw on the news that there's yet another fire down there The Buckeye Fire I think it's named. Talked with my father in law in Camp Verde, it's amazing........HE'S now on the possible evacuation list and to think, EXACTLY 3 YEARS AGO, WE evacuated to Camp Verde, pretty profound!

Dennis