STORM2K

Posted: **Sat Jul 15, 2006 4:57 pm**

Is anyone stockpiling or preparing at all???

Posted: **Sat Jul 15, 2006 5:10 pm**

My aunt who works for the CDC is looking at buying a home in the North Carolina mountains, and stock piling it full; making it also fully autonomous (sp?)

She said that it will make two rounds around the world in about a years time

Posted: **Sat Jul 15, 2006 5:52 pm**

That's assuming that we are around ourselves when it begins its run.

Steve

Posted: **Sat Jul 15, 2006 6:06 pm**

jusforsean wrote:Is anyone stockpiling or preparing at all???

I always have a 3 month supply of food, water, batteries etc on hand at all times and enough "fire power" = 5000 rounds of ammo for one weapon, 2000 rounds of another JUST in case

Posted: **Sat Jul 15, 2006 6:07 pm**

Frankly I think that unless you're a dead bird juggler, or one of the few misfortunates that it has transferred to humans through; I believe this is unwarranted alarmism. Virtually every major pandemic flu has been of an avian variety. The chances of this thing mutating to where it is easily transmissible from human to human (yes I know of the Indonesian case--actually a whole different story).. is quite slim. I think far more people are going to become ill, and even possibly die from West Nile, than this particular avian variety.

A2K

Posted: **Sat Jul 15, 2006 6:21 pm**

I really didn't pay much attention to it until some of my customers at work started requiring contingency plans in the event of an outbreak. Here's an edited letter from one of my customers:

May 26, 2006

Dear Supplier,

The potential for a significant business disruption due to an Avian flu (H5N1) pandemic has become a matter of concern over the last several months. The virus does not today have the capability of being passed from human to human, and no one has been able to predict with certainty whether the virus will actually attain that capability. Nevertheless, because the consequences that might follow such a development are so severe, the World Health Organization, the governments of all UN Member Nations and ** are taking this potential risk seriously.

We are developing plans and preparing our organization for a potential Influenza outbreak. As a key supplier to ** you are a vital part of our overall ability to ensure a continuity of supply to our customers. Therefore, we ask that your company provide ** confirmation that you have a plan in place to avert significant potential disruption resulting from a flu outbreak. Please send this to the attention of **.

Attached to this letter is an example of flu preparedness, a response plan, and a helpful planning checklist. As you discuss this with your management and your employees, you will note that there is much to be done to get ready for a potential outbreak. This letter is not meant to be an all-inclusive plan and will need to be adapted to your company’s needs. At the end of the letter, you will find links to websites that can provide additional information. We encourage you to use the information found at these sites to help you develop an appropriate plan.

Please note that merely having a plan does not mean that a company is prepared for a pandemic. As you can see from the web site information there is much involved to really become prepared. Many governments say that companies should not rely on them to provide the answers or to help them develop plans to protect employees and their families. This is why we are taking our planning and preparation work very seriously. We need your help too. At a minimum, we ask that you consider the following items:

Preparedness and Communication

The best way to prepare for and lessen the impact of an influenza outbreak is to focus on improving hygiene practices. We recommend that facilities provide communication and training to employees regarding hygiene practices to prevent the spread of infection. These include but are not limited to:

Washing hands frequently with soap and hot water, especially following food preparation and after trips to the washrooms or bathrooms
Treating hands regularly with waterless, alcohol-based hand sanitizer
Covering the mouth when sneezing or coughing
Avoiding live animal markets and poultry and pig farms in affected cities, countries or regions
Avoiding sick or dead birds
Avoiding touching surfaces that may be contaminated
Monitoring body for symptoms such as fever, shortness of breath, etc. if in an affected city, area, country or region
Obtaining a seasonal flu vaccination where possible
Avoiding sharing of drinking cups or utensils
Disposing of tissues, paper towels, masks and other disposables in covered containers
Considering the implementation of guidelines requiring employees to wear gloves if they have daily contact with other co-workers or share tools, equipment or parts
Using disposable drinking cups
Following careful food preparation guidelines that include separating raw meats from cooked or ready-to-eat foods and washing hands after handling raw meat and prior to touching or eating cooked foods

Before the Bird Flu progresses to the worst-case scenario we further recommend that you secure and train employees to use the following supplies:

N-95 masks
Disposable latex or vinyl gloves
Bleach
Waterless, alcohol-based hand sanitizer
Trash cans with covers or lids
Personal thermometers
Disposable drinking cups

Surveillance and Detection

We recommend that you establish a regular bird flu monitoring protocol. The protocol would be managed and implemented by a coordinator. The coordinator has primary responsibility for monitoring the status of avian flu in the city or region where the plant is located. The coordinator should be able to answer questions about prevention and mitigation activities. We recommend that every supplier appoint a primary and a back-up coordinator.

Response and Containment

We request that you establish a response and containment plan. It should address the following:

Triggers for implementing travel and visitor restrictions
Cleaning and disinfecting protocols in affected areas
Criteria for taking mandatory sick leave and for quarantine as appropriate
Alternate work force or manufacturing contingency plans
Work-from-home plans and triggers for anyone not infected

During an outbreak, it will be critical that persons with the disease be kept separate from those who do not have the disease.

Summary

We appreciate your attention to these important issues. We request you confirm, via return e-mail, that you have a plan in place. Please send the confirmation to **.

Thank You.

U.S. Centers for Disease Control: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/

Posted: **Sat Jul 15, 2006 6:53 pm**

Audrey2Katrina wrote:Frankly I think that unless you're a dead bird juggler, or one of the few misfortunates that it has transferred to humans through; I believe this is unwarranted alarmism. Virtually every major pandemic flu has been of an avian variety. The chances of this thing mutating to where it is easily transmissible from human to human (yes I know of the Indonesian case--actually a whole different story).. is quite slim. I think far more people are going to become ill, and even possibly die from West Nile, than this particular avian variety.

A2K

It is hardly unwarranted. Influenza has always mutated into dangerous strains in the past. Just look at 1918 when an influenza outbreak that killed hundreds of thousands of Americans in just a few months time.

Posted: **Sat Jul 15, 2006 10:59 pm**

Here is a Bird Flu Thread with some interesting info.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... t=bird+flu

Posted: **Sat Jul 15, 2006 11:04 pm**

I keep putting off stocking up on non perishable food, bottled water, extra medicines, batteries - for a number of reasons. Mostly procrastination, I say I should do it but never quite do it properly. I started filling a closet with these items but never finished it.

But sometimes I have to wonder if my entire family would all be here, if something catastrophic happened. Chances are, we would be separated anyway. It's rare when we're all home, together. That's just the way it is when your kids are nearly grown. That shouldn't stop me from stocking up though.

It would worry me terribly if something major happened and I had no way to get to my daughters or communicate with them, for days on end.

But as a precaution, just mother nature related events, we all should be prepared. Katrina alone should teach us that.

Mary

Posted: **Sat Jul 15, 2006 11:07 pm**

azsnowman wrote:
jusforsean wrote:Is anyone stockpiling or preparing at all???

I always have a 3 month supply of food, water, batteries etc on hand at all times and enough "fire power" = 5000 rounds of ammo for one weapon, 2000 rounds of another JUST in case

Wouldn't killing the birds make matters worse?

Posted: **Sun Jul 16, 2006 1:42 am**

jusforsean wrote:Is anyone stockpiling or preparing at all???

No

Posted: **Sun Jul 16, 2006 2:22 am**

GalvestonDuck wrote:
azsnowman wrote:
jusforsean wrote:Is anyone stockpiling or preparing at all???

I always have a 3 month supply of food, water, batteries etc on hand at all times and enough "fire power" = 5000 rounds of ammo for one weapon, 2000 rounds of another JUST in case

Wouldn't killing the birds make matters worse?

CUTE. But it's obvious he's not talking about BIRDS. I've seen our so-called civilization start to unravel after a hurricane - heck, there were fistfights over batteries and things even before Charley hit. Okay, so if we get a pandemic going - you think that everyone is going to play all nicey-nice?

Posted: **Sun Jul 16, 2006 8:25 am**

HurriCat wrote:
GalvestonDuck wrote:
azsnowman wrote:
jusforsean wrote:Is anyone stockpiling or preparing at all???

I always have a 3 month supply of food, water, batteries etc on hand at all times and enough "fire power" = 5000 rounds of ammo for one weapon, 2000 rounds of another JUST in case

Wouldn't killing the birds make matters worse?

CUTE. But it's obvious he's not talking about BIRDS. I've seen our so-called civilization start to unravel after a hurricane - heck, there were fistfights over batteries and things even before Charley hit. Okay, so if we get a pandemic going - you think that everyone is going to play all nicey-nice? Think again.

Don't turn it into battle...yeah, I was being cute.

Posted: **Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:14 am**

GalvestonDuck wrote:
HurriCat wrote:
GalvestonDuck wrote:
azsnowman wrote:
jusforsean wrote:Is anyone stockpiling or preparing at all???

I always have a 3 month supply of food, water, batteries etc on hand at all times and enough "fire power" = 5000 rounds of ammo for one weapon, 2000 rounds of another JUST in case

Wouldn't killing the birds make matters worse?

CUTE. But it's obvious he's not talking about BIRDS. I've seen our so-called civilization start to unravel after a hurricane - heck, there were fistfights over batteries and things even before Charley hit. Okay, so if we get a pandemic going - you think that everyone is going to play all nicey-nice? Think again.

Don't turn it into battle...yeah, I was being cute.

...And doing a very nice job, I might add.

Posted: **Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:28 am**

ericinmia wrote:My aunt who works for the CDC is looking at buying a home in the North Carolina mountains, and stock piling it full; making it also fully autonomous (sp?)

She said that it will make two rounds around the world in about a years time

THAT speaks volumes! H5N1 is not a drill. Take it seriously.

Windsong

Posted: **Sun Jul 16, 2006 12:11 pm**

stormtruth wrote:
Audrey2Katrina wrote:Frankly I think that unless you're a dead bird juggler, or one of the few misfortunates that it has transferred to humans through; I believe this is unwarranted alarmism. Virtually every major pandemic flu has been of an avian variety. The chances of this thing mutating to where it is easily transmissible from human to human (yes I know of the Indonesian case--actually a whole different story).. is quite slim. I think far more people are going to become ill, and even possibly die from West Nile, than this particular avian variety.

A2K

It is hardly unwarranted. Influenza has always mutated into dangerous strains in the past. Just look at 1918 when an influenza outbreak that killed hundreds of thousands of Americans in just a few months time.

Do me a favor and don't "mutate" what I've said. I'm quite familiar with the 1918 influenza pandemic... amid a world that was largely 3rd world, impoverished and decimated by "The Great War"... as technology has increased, the overall affect of avian flus have been greatly reduced despite outbreaks in the 1950's and again late 60's/70's... nothing like that 1918 one. Your statement that "Influenza has ALWAYS mutated into dangerous strains" is misleading, if not statistically a myth. Do you have any clue as to the millions of strains of influenza viri there are? Obviously they have NOT ALL, ALWAYS mutated into "dangerous strains", or else perhaps humanity wouldn't be here today. They have the "potential" to become quite dangerous--but it is the kind of alarmism you suggest in your comment, that prompted mine in the first place. People need to take it seriously; but it's WAY too early to over-react. This thing's been around a LOT longer than people realize, and hasn't gone transmissible human-to-human yet.

An avian flu will, in all likelihood, be of a much less virulent strain IF it becomes easily transmissible to humans. I'm not saying folks shouldn't keep an eye on it; but all this panic pushing is accomplishing nothing.

For a different "view" on all this Bird-Flu hysteria, you might want to read this:

http://www.capitolhillblue.com/artman/publish/article_7930.shtml

Most recent records indicate that in FOUR YEARS we have a worldwide death toll of all of 132 deaths as of July 14, 2006... Now compare that TOTAL figure to a ONE YEAR figure (2003-WHO source) for these killers:

Measles: 611,000 DEAD!
Childhood Diseases: 1,124,000 DEAD
HIV-AIDS VIRUS Nearly 3,000,000 DEAD
Tuberculosis: 1,566,000 DEAD
DIARRHEA related diseases: 1,798,000 DEAD

We won't even GO into those killed by Ischaemic Heart Disease which is now about 8 million a year..Stroke and Cerebrovascular which kills between 5 and 6 million more a year, Additional Cardio-pulmonary/vascular diseases which account for another 12-15 million deaths per year, or the countless teeming MILLIONS that die from CANCER... and we're positively in a "panic" about a disease that has killed all of 132 people worldwide in the past FOUR YEARS??

Hell, in the United States, in the year 2005 there were 119 Americans KILLED by the West Nile Virus. And using CDC's own statistics, West Nile Virus has already killed over 800 AMERICANS in the past 5 years...and yet you do not have this utter "panic" that people are being gripped with over all this "bird flu" hysteria. (They ARE both viruses)

Yes, it (the ALARMISM) most definitely IS unwarranted, when viewed in proper context. Let the scientists/immunologists continue their efforts to deal with it, let the pharmaceuticals continue to work on immunilogical ways to possibly prevent it; and let the folks keep aware of developments in a rational manner; but all this "THE SKY IS FALLING" is, IMHO, just as dangeros, and counterproductive as it engenders a panic mentallity, that to this point has been shown unnecessary.

Panic can kill too.. ya know. Keep abreast of things with enough of a "grip" to understand, that unless you're in the labs working on things, there's not a whole lot you can do other than be watchful, and then take appropriate measures IF (and that's a mighty-big 2-letter word) something should actually come of all this.

A2K

Posted: **Sun Jul 16, 2006 12:59 pm**

With all due respect A2K, IF and when H5N1 mutates to a pandemic strain, the WORLD will have 1-3 weeks to prepare. This is per the World Health Organization. The shelves all over the world will be empty within hours. This is one case I would rather be prepared and be wrong, than not prepared and have to tell my hungry children I can' t feed them. The calvery isn't coming, that's been made clear in every state of the union by the federal government.

I've been following H5N1 since 1999. In my opinion, preparing for the potential of a pandemic strain is about as smart as preparing for a hurricane that is coming straight at you, only this one will come in two to three waves and last about 18 months. A long emergency for sure.

I see you are well versed on the 1918 pandemic. We will have much the same conditions, despite our technology advances. With just-in-time inventories, water treatement facilities that will surely fail and the fact that we no longer (as a whole) have the skills to survive in 1918 conditions, I think they had it all over us.

I look at it this way. I pay car insurance, just in case. I pay health insurance, just in case. I buy essential supplies for H5N1, just in case. I get to eat that food no matter what. I sure wouldn't want to wait until paitent one shows up in an emergency room somewhere to get supplied.

As you say, watch and wait. I would like to add that you should be getting ready while you are waiting. IMHO, H5N1 is the biggest threat to mankind in the world today, and to not be prepared, is just as irresponsible as someone who is looking for a government hand out the day after a hurricane because they were sure it wasn't going to happen.

Just my opinion.

Windsong

Posted: **Sun Jul 16, 2006 1:28 pm**

With all due respect A2K, IF and when H5N1 mutates to a pandemic strain, the WORLD will have 1-3 weeks to prepare.

With all due respect, Windsong, this is speculation at best and the very kind of speculation that causes the very hysteria of which I speak. As far as WHO as a source of info--give me the hard facts; not alarmist speculation..I just think it's being overblown.

I've been following H5N1 since 1999.

As have I... and it's a strain of a virus that's been around since the 1950's.

We will have much the same conditions, despite our technology advances.

Again, more speculation... the conditions already are quite different.

H5N1 is the biggest threat to mankind in the world today,

Statistically this simply doesn't pan out.

to not be prepared, is just as irresponsible as someone who is looking for a government hand out the day after a hurricane because they were sure it wasn't going to happen.

I also suggest vigilance, it's only that our perception of that vigilance appears to be somewhat different. I agree on the watch and wait... but please let's not get into calling people "irresponsible" if they don't fall into a panic mode about a strain of virus that on a comparative scale isn't even on the radar with some of the other causes of death I listed, which I noticed were not addressed. Statistically, it appears they are far and away the greater threat to mankind--no speculation involved, just hard reality--and yet nobody's running around in a panic about it.

I don't disagree with your call for vigilance, as stated earlier; I just disagree with the level of alarms going off.

Just my opinion.

Ditto!

A2K

Posted: **Sun Jul 16, 2006 1:30 pm**

Rainband wrote:
jusforsean wrote:Is anyone stockpiling or preparing at all???
No

Same here. I'm not overly concerned, but I am monitoring it. I'm much more concerned about recent world events...

Posted: **Sun Jul 16, 2006 1:38 pm**

Same here. I'm not overly concerned, but I am monitoring it. I'm much more concerned about recent world events...

My sentiments exactly.

A2K

STORM2K

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