STORM2K

Note: This thread is admin-approved.

I have a membership to the Associated Press and on Tuesday I'll be getting elections results off of the AP wire and putting them into a database, so in the process I will post them as they come out in this thread. For some, I'll be getting them at the same time as other major news sources, so you'll be able to get breaking information while surfing S2K.

Trends in exit polling will be coming out all day, but no hard numbers will be available until evening. Real numbers aren't given until polls close so as not to influence the election.

I'll try to do the priority results first, but I won't be able to do everything, especially at certain times. For instance, at 7:00 EST about 50 different races and ballot measures will be called simultaneously.

I've spoken with Chad and he's told me to inform everyone that political commentary is not welcome in the thread and that anyone violating this rule will be considered pre-warned and "shown the door." However, you're welcome to add real results in races that interest you as they become available, but try to cite them.



See ya tomorrow.

Good thread. Thanks for starting it!

I was wondering if a thread would be allowed... nice.

This is a very long list of the key races to watch here and the times each states polls close:

http://contrapositive.blogspot.com/2006 ... ur_27.html

These are some of the key races:

Virginia Senate - A chance for Dems to pick up a seat and possibly end the political career of a Presidential hopeful.

Rhode Island Senate - The Republican candidate here is very popular but may be sacrificed in order to help the Democrats take the Senate.

Michigan Senate - The Democrat has had the edge all year, but the Republican is gaining fast. Will be interesting to see if the GOP can complete a hail mary pass here.

Tennessee Senate - Polls show substaintial leads for both candidates. Don't even try to figure this one out. But, it is Tennessee, so advantage GOP.

Pennsylvania Senate - I'm including this one because this is Storm2k and Santorum (the Republican) is the sponsor of the much-discussed "accuweather" bill. It's still technically a toss-up, but I will say that it seems likely that people who hated that bill will enjoy Tuesday night.

Arizona Senate - This race should go Republican, but a bigger-than-expected backlash could change that. Since the incumbent is a Republican, Arizona has the power to hand the Senate to the Democrats.

Missouri Senate - Many will be surprised if this race is called Tuesday night as it's the closest in the country.

Maryland Senate - Quite an interesting race. The Republicans will have to steal Democratic votes, so it's an uphill battle. But, expect the RNC to be out in force here and the Republicans do have a chance to take a seat from the Democrats here.

Montana Senate - 50% of Montanans approve of President Bush, so it seems the GOP has the advantage here. But, the race is a toss-up with a slight advantage to the Democrat.





Maryland Governor - As goes the Senate, so will probably go the Governor's race in this state.

Wisconsin Governor - The race is tight, but the Republican is out of money.

Arkansas Governor - A chance for Dems to take a Southern governorship, as polls suggest will happen.

Ohio Governor - Ohio isn't exactly red, but it's not deep blue either. The GOP will have to come from behind, but the race is still fairly close.

New York Governor - This race is interesting simply because the seat is currently held by a very popular Republican. However, he is retiring and the Republican looking to replace him doesn't seem to have a prayer.

South Carolina Governor - The Republican candidate here leads by double digits, but there are some in his own party looking to give the seat to the Democrat. Additionally, he only managed to get 69% in a primary that wasn't considered competitive. If the GOP loses or almost loses the governorship here, where polls will close early at 7PM, it's a good indicator that the GOP is going to have a very, very long night nationwide.


I won't add the house races, just because there are about 50 in play. I will say, however, not to assume that the House is lost to the Democrats. Two factors are in play:

1) People often change their minds in the booth. Jimmy Carter had a lead in the polls the weekend before election day in 1980, but was blown out.

2) The current trend in polls favors Republicans. Granted, they have a mountain to climb, but it's been done before.

The Senate will likely be very close(whether it stays Republican or goes Democratic, they need 6 seats), so I would expect it to be Wednesday Morning before we know what happens there.

It's going to be a very exciting night regardless(I think) though.

We'll probably know pretty early which way the House goes(I'm pretty sure it's going Democratic, they need 15, but the recent polls has given some doubt to that).

Alright, here's my prediction:

House goes Democratic... pickup of 20-25 seats(15 is what they need). Probably will know pretty early(8-9pm ET).

Senate will stay very narrowly Republican(if it's not 50/50 by 1-2 seats), so a 4-5 seat pickup. I think it'll be a very long night, probably close to Daybreak before 1 or 2 key races(probably MO/MT or VA) are decided.

Senate:

OH/PA go Democratic
Chafee barely pulls out RI
Webb wins in VA(Allen's mouth got him in trouble one too many times)
McCaskill wins in MO
Burns holds seat in MT
Corker wins in TN
MD and NJ will stay Democratic although MD has a chance to switch and if it does, the Dems will have a bad night(unlikely, but something to watch).

So that's a 4-seat pickup for the Dems. MT is the one I'm most uncertain about.

It will be interesting to see what happens today. I tend to agree with Brent's predictions overall, but I think the Dems may pick up a few more seats in the House.

Early voting trend result:

In Tennessee: Voter turnout is already 40% in the state. High turnout would tend to help the Republican candidate.

More turnout updates:

Virginia turnout is incredibly heavy. Some say it may be the state's highest turnout ever. Exit polling data is not yet available to see which party is getting its votes out.

Tennessee turnout is also huge. Rain is now moving in to the mountainous, Republican parts of the state. It's not yet clear whether this will hurt GOP turnout as rain doesn't be having much of an effect elsewhere in the country.

As for turnout, there was a line at my precinct and there's NEVER a line at my precinct.

Turnout is impressive in Missouri, home of one of the closest Senate races.

Turnout has been huge and heavily Democratic in New Hampshire where Democrats have been hoping to unseat a Republican house member.

Regit wrote:Early voting trend result:

In Tennessee: Voter turnout is already 40% in the state. High turnout would tend to help the Republican candidate.

I was fixing to post that. Heavy impressive turn out usually favors Republicans. Glad I read the thread first. lol.

Lindaloo wrote:Heavy impressive turn out usually favors Republicans.

Historically the opposite is true.

gtalum wrote:

Lindaloo wrote:Heavy impressive turn out usually favors Republicans.

Historically the opposite is true.

Well the reason it helps in Tennessee is because so many people there are Republicans. High turnout suggests the GOP is getting its voters out.

Regit wrote:Well the reason it helps in Tennessee is because so many people there are Republicans. High turnout suggests the GOP is getting its voters out.

Nationwide, however, the Democrats far outpace the Republicans in registration. Thus high turnout nationally tends to benefit Democrats.

Well, Denver is testing their new voting centers(downsized from 300+ precinct poll sites to 55 voting centers). Anybody can vote at any site in denver, so as opposed to poll books, they now have computers with a voter database, that is apparently crawling right now, leaving judges to call the election offices to confirm voter names. Each site has lots of machines which to the best of my knowledges are sittig unused as lines back up as much as 5 blocks all because of the computerized voter database. I voted and fortunately there was no line...the main problems seem to be worse in and around the down town area.
Other complicating factors...11 ballot issues in amendments(includies allowing domestic partnerships, banning gay marriage, and raising minimum wage). Not only does this result in a longer ballot(i.e. more time to vote), it is also driving turnout(people are coming out in droves to vote on these things whether they care about candidates or not).
Looks like Denver is talking about extending voting hours...
For those not familiar with colorado voting tendancies, Denver's voters are critical to dems in the state(denver metro while it does make up a huge chunk of colorado's population, is a small blue spot in a sea of red. Needless to say the dems are wanting hours extended and republicans what them closed at 7.

gtalum wrote:

Regit wrote:Well the reason it helps in Tennessee is because so many people there are Republicans. High turnout suggests the GOP is getting its voters out.

Nationwide, however, the Democrats far outpace the Republicans in registration. Thus high turnout nationally tends to benefit Democrats.

Not arguing with you there, just pointing out the Tennessee exception.

Regit wrote:

gtalum wrote:

Lindaloo wrote:Heavy impressive turn out usually favors Republicans.

Historically the opposite is true.

Well the reason it helps in Tennessee is because so many people there are Republicans. High turnout suggests the GOP is getting its voters out.

I meant Tennessee. Thanks for verifying that Regit.

Sorry then. It probably usually does help the GOP in Tennessee. My bad.

one thing about reports of high turn out. i have heard them before and when the election is over, it usually ends up turnout is normal.