Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions
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I think the issue is that the models tend to get looked at from a deterministic instead of a trending standpoint.
To many reality means whatever the last run of the model says. I would rather look at the trends (the globals are all sniffing at some development in this region now)...as opposed to the pass/fail view of the latest run.
In other words...what is the trend in the atmosphere and how is that lining up in the guidance?
It may be just a theory but sometimes the models...all of them miss on development until the initialized model conditions change (IE...the lid gets lifted in the on the atmosphere)..then BAM they all start to see development.
Also...changes to the GFS were implemented in May. In previous seasons the GFS was better defined as "create-a-storm"...so since it developed everything in the past...it caught most stroms and lots of non storms.
But this year it has not been spinning up 15 vort maxes in 10 days like it used to. Perhaps the model changes are causing it to not see development.
Also...the venerable GFS missed Ernesto last year...and didn't see Isabel in the H850 fields when it was a cat 3....
MW
To many reality means whatever the last run of the model says. I would rather look at the trends (the globals are all sniffing at some development in this region now)...as opposed to the pass/fail view of the latest run.
In other words...what is the trend in the atmosphere and how is that lining up in the guidance?
It may be just a theory but sometimes the models...all of them miss on development until the initialized model conditions change (IE...the lid gets lifted in the on the atmosphere)..then BAM they all start to see development.
Also...changes to the GFS were implemented in May. In previous seasons the GFS was better defined as "create-a-storm"...so since it developed everything in the past...it caught most stroms and lots of non storms.
But this year it has not been spinning up 15 vort maxes in 10 days like it used to. Perhaps the model changes are causing it to not see development.
Also...the venerable GFS missed Ernesto last year...and didn't see Isabel in the H850 fields when it was a cat 3....
MW
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Re: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis-Imagery
Joe Bastardi thinks this storm will analog to a storm forming in the Pacific that will approach Japan from the Southeast.
He thinks it is North of the Bahamas in a week, but doesn't yet know if it is up the East Coast, into the Southeast, or towards Florida.
But the implication is not a fish storm. He doesn't think it follows a Dean-like path due to later in the season, and a more Northward component to the generally Westward component recent tropical waves have been following.
He also is watching for 'situational development' either side of Florida late in the weekend.
He thinks it is North of the Bahamas in a week, but doesn't yet know if it is up the East Coast, into the Southeast, or towards Florida.
But the implication is not a fish storm. He doesn't think it follows a Dean-like path due to later in the season, and a more Northward component to the generally Westward component recent tropical waves have been following.
He also is watching for 'situational development' either side of Florida late in the weekend.
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Joe Bastardi thinks this storm will analog to a storm forming in the Pacific that will approach Japan from the Southeast.
He thinks it is North of the Bahamas in a week, but doesn't yet know if it is up the East Coast, into the Southeast, or towards Florida.
North of the bahamas but possibly twards FL...Thats new..
He thinks it is North of the Bahamas in a week, but doesn't yet know if it is up the East Coast, into the Southeast, or towards Florida.
North of the bahamas but possibly twards FL...Thats new..
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Re: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis-Imagery
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Joe Bastardi thinks this storm will analog to a storm forming in the Pacific that will approach Japan from the Southeast.
That would be 94W. Euro has 94W becoming a big typhoon and scraping Japan from the SE.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis-Imagery
Mark,go to Talking Tropics forum to the Long Range Models Runs thread.Look what is down the pipe. 

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Re: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis-Imagery
Environment Canada model tracks this to just South of Puerto Rico in six days
Well, I think this is what the Canadian is tracking. The only place the 12Z run is up is on the EC website.
Yes, I know the Canadian gets happy feet with TCs
Well, I think this is what the Canadian is tracking. The only place the 12Z run is up is on the EC website.
Yes, I know the Canadian gets happy feet with TCs
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Re:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Joe Bastardi thinks this storm will analog to a storm forming in the Pacific that will approach Japan from the Southeast.
He thinks it is North of the Bahamas in a week, but doesn't yet know if it is up the East Coast, into the Southeast, or towards Florida.
North of the bahamas but possibly twards FL...Thats new..
He showed the European 500 mb height field, and implied with weak steering, it might park until the ridge builds back in, and then head West.
If you look, you can be North of the Bahamas, and still get to Central & Northern Florida by heading West.

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Re: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis-Imagery
Most of the models don't turn the track NW till the storm gets west of Puerto Rico.
The big islands are on the strong side of the storm so the NHC may be cautious with an early track forecast close to the islands the way they did with Dean.
What is the UKmet doing in the 94L graphic?

The big islands are on the strong side of the storm so the NHC may be cautious with an early track forecast close to the islands the way they did with Dean.
What is the UKmet doing in the 94L graphic?

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- windstorm99
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Re: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis-Imagery
Another view at models for 94L....


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Re: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis-Imagery
Is the Clipper model a reliable one to follow? I ask because of the track it takes distint from other models.
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- skysummit
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Re: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis-Imagery
cycloneye wrote:Is the Clipper model a reliable one to follow? I ask because of the track it takes distint from other models.
Now Luis....you know what the clipper is.
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- windstorm99
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- skysummit
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GFDL dissipates it....
WHXX04 KWBC 281719
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L
INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 28
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 10.0 40.1 270./20.0
STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
WHXX04 KWBC 281719
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L
INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 28
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 10.0 40.1 270./20.0
STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
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Re: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis-Imagery
GFS is showing a pretty strong ridge north of the islands, but they still track a low/wave near Puerto Rico.

The weakness between those two highs looks over done but shows the potential steering that Bastardi was talking about.

The weakness between those two highs looks over done but shows the potential steering that Bastardi was talking about.
Last edited by Nimbus on Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- windstorm99
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