CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[KBBOCA]

These model animations are really cool. Are they new this year? Don't recall seeing them before, though I confess I pretty much ignored the tropics last season.

Looks like [soon to be?] Dean is going to wrap up quite "nicely." Yet that run looks ominous for the Islands. Hoping he will be a fish.

[gatorcane]

Good morning folks.

I read the latest NHC discussion. The track is clearly worrisome for the islands and also for Florida IMHO. I credit those that say the track guidance is highly unreliable past 5 days but if you think about it the GFS has done very well with this system even 7-10 days ago when it started picking up on this and its the same model that has shown several runs of a strong system going through South Florida.

The scenario for a South Florida threat is very real at this point. The NHC mentions the possibility of a building ridge over the East Coast. That would cause this system to move WNW and get north of the Greater Antilles then eventually start to bend West again (Andrew did something similar). I am leaning towards this scenario at this point given we are in mid August and most of the models are not favoring a weakness at this point.

I am starting to finalize my preparations here in South Florida....

Until the system clears 25N, for Miami, FL, it's a threat. Now, we just need to keep an eye on it and wait, that's all.

Andrew's anniversary is coming up Aug. 24th...should it track towards South Florida it would be pretty close to this date that it would hit.

[tgenius]

I had mentioned that a few pages back (or in the other thread) how Andrew's anniversary was coming up.. it is 15 years ago... that's a semi-round number isn't it?

[jimvb]

Regarding my previous post on the rating system. I said the rating was determined by where the storm first strikes. I make an exception for peninsular Florida. If a storm strikes central Florida and goes into the Gulf, and then hits NW Florida, it is a 4, not a 5. Betsy, Andrew, and Katrina were 3s, not 5s.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[Scorpion]

Come to think of it, Albertos LLC was displaced a good 150-200 miles from the convection. I remember seeing a naked swirl in the central GOM and all the convection by Florida

[HURAKAN]

Latest!!!

[punkyg]

Wheres the center. is it under some of the convection on the northeast side.

[HURAKAN]

Wheres the center. is it under some of the convection on the northeast side.

It appears to be under the ball of convection in the northeastern side of the circulation.

[Derek Ortt]

center is exposed by about 60 miles east of the covnection

[Scorpion]

I assume this is the center, right?

[dolphinslady]

Anyone have a link to where we can view the models for TD4? I lost some of my links...

TIA~

[Derek Ortt]

this looks like a 1.5/1.5 to me with the exposed center

[punkyg]

I assume this is the center, right?

I think so too so if thats the case, then its covered and not exposed.

[KBBOCA]

Just for the record, as others have noted above, I too am seeing an old loop when I look at the visible floater for TD4

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

The last image is about 21:15 UTC last night. What's up with that?

[HURAKAN]

In these close-up the center appears to be under the ball of convection, not exposed.

[punkyg]

In these close-up the center appears to be under the ball of convection, not exposed.

Thats what i was thinking under the ball of convection.

[MiamiensisWx]

SSD T-numbers have risen to 2.5.

14/1145 UTC 12.0N 38.6W T2.5/2.5 04L

[Derek Ortt]

I am getting a center position 1 full degree east of the NHC fix

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Quickscat strongly supports the center under the convection. Also it shows 45-50 knot winds...That was a old satellite image on the floater.