Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[MWatkins]

Also...I would strongly recommend not looking at IR4 to determine the health of a surface circulation. You're getting cloud TOP estimated temps from that imagery...opposite of what you want when looking for an exposed center.

Use IR2 instead.

MW

[Derek Ortt]

only the NCEP global model derived forecasts are trending eastward

I have to say, reading some of these posts is as frustrating as was reading those form the last 99L... the one everyone said would develop and it never did. Maybe it's the invest number or something, lol

[cpdaman]

well ull is supposed to retrograde sw toward florida and bring drier air in to fl

so like derek said patience my people patience

better off not looking at it till tomorrow afternoon, or better yet friday morning.

easier said than done

i predict 30 n 68.9 west at 8am i don't see this thing moving back west till friday

i say the over/under for morning visible longitude is 68.9 hurricane futures anyone

[tolakram]

only the NCEP global model derived forecasts are trending eastward

I have to say, reading some of these posts is as frustrating as was reading those form the last 99L... the one everyone said would develop and it never did. Maybe it's the invest number or something, lol

That invest was a great teacher for me. A blow up every night and then death the next day. No LLC, never had one. Here we have an LLC but all people are looking at are cloud tops and colors on the AVN. I see this as another great learning opportunity. Trying to stay positive.

[brunota2003]

Hey, you dont think those models are holding some type of grudge against me, do you? Showed my mom and she just started laughing at how all but like 3 come over top of us. They cleaned the shed out today, so now everything inside can be moved in if it looks like we will take a hit (aka, just being in the cone and under a watch). Dad will be firing the genny up tomorrow. Said he'd do it today, but the cleaning got in the way. It's a wait and see now, but I do not like those models clustering over me already.

[Brent]

ABNT20 KNHC 060219
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FELIX ARE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO THAT COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RE-DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 360 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WHERE WINDS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE ARE OCCURRING. THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY...AND A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

No change from earlier.

[Chacor]

EDIT: Damn you, Brent!

[Stormcenter]

Models trending on keeping 99L of the coast...

Can you say "Fish storm"? Well they possibilty is there if it does develop.

[Brent]

EDIT: Damn you, Brent!

HAHA... I had JUST logged on from being offline for awhile and saw that it was out 4 minutes earlier, surprised it hadn't been posted before that.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Models trending on keeping 99L of the coast...

Can you say "Fish storm"? Well they possibilty is there if it does develop.

The ridge will build strong and push it into north carolina
most likely imo...remember that these models tended to underestimate
the ridge with previous storms...

This could get really bad for north carolina....

[weatherman21]

Latest Water Vapor imagery outlines the atmospheric features which are currently affecting the storm:

WV at 2:15Z

[Coredesat]

I'm not so sure. So far the models have been shifting to the right more and more with each run, and the cnvctn is sheared more NE of the LLC now than it has ever been. You can see the LLC on IR2:

[deltadog03]

you can see a LLC on there. You have to animate the pic and then u can see it spinning out there. Looks to me as it has stalled or even pushing ever so slightly sw.

[NCWeatherChic]

Local mets here are not making a big deal out of 99L. They are saying we will get some much needed rain if anything at all. They were showing video footage from Wrightsville Beach saying that ones that had heard about 99L were not concerned while many had no idea anything was even going on. I think if this develops and develops quickly, there will be many caught off guard and not expecting it since it really isn't a topic on the local news just yet. I heard one met say that it will slide back toward the west give us some rain and then go back out to sea. (He must be a met and a physic). It's too soon to know what will come out of this IMHO.

I say I would rather be safe than sorry and at least be prepared, even if it isn't this one, there might one later to be concerned about.

[brunota2003]

Local mets here are not making a big deal out of 99L. They are saying we will get some much needed rain if anything at all. They were showing video footage from Wrightsville Beach saying that ones that had heard about 99L were not concerned while many had no idea anything was even going on. I think if this develops and develops quickly, there will be many caught off guard and not expecting it since it really isn't a topic on the local news just yet. I heard one met say that it will slide back toward the west give us some rain and then go back out to sea. (He must be a met and a physic). It's too soon to know what will come out of this IMHO.

I say I would rather be safe than sorry and at least be prepared, even if it isn't this one, there might one later to be concerned about.

Wow...I havent been watching the news much. What about Channel 12 with Skip? He remaining quite too? (If you get 12...)

[JtSmarts]

I've been watching this thing all day and I need a break now lol. I agree with cpdaman about leaving it alone for awhile since things haven't changed too much today. My final words are to trust the ProMets, after being here for 4 years I know they are not alarmists and would not say something had a change to develop if they were not really concerned about it. Things can change in a flash in the tropics.

[HURAKAN]

I think it's clear that the shear is the main inhibitor at this point. Any decrease in shear and we will have Gabrielle in our hands. I can't understand why meteorologists in the Carolinas could be downplaying this system.

[cycloneye]

Things can change in a flash in the tropics.

The best sentence of today.Certainly,anything happens rapidly in the tropics especially in the peak month of September when things pop anywhere.

[Coredesat]

you can see a LLC on there. You have to animate the pic and then u can see it spinning out there. Looks to me as it has stalled or even pushing ever so slightly sw.

Yes, you can see the LLC. On the loop the LLC appears to be drifting south while the convection is sheared 1.5 deg to the NE.

[Brent]

I'm losing interest fast... it looks worse than it did yesterday or all day today. I'm still giving it tomorrow to do something but I'm becoming less optimistic.

Seems like nothing decent can get going north of 20 N this year.