CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[vacanechaser]

Andrew's anniversary is coming up Aug. 24th...should it track towards South Florida it would be pretty close to this date that it would hit.

interesting isnt it.. that would also be the anni. of iniki hitting hawaii... now we have flossie out there??? strange to see that... of course not saying we will see an andrew type system anywhere, but still a strange coinsidence...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Scorpion]

I would like to see a pro met chime in on the organization of this

[punkyg]

I think today it will make it to tropical storm status and on sunday reach hurricane strength.

[terstorm1012]

how are the models handling the trough due to come off the East Coast this weekend? it's supposed to be pretty potent (a taste of fall the local mets are advertising)

[marcane_1973]

Just basing it off from the latest models this is starting to look more and more like an East coaster and most likely a NC landfall. I know the models will change and this storm might not even develop but looks to me the way everything is starting to set up this is a classic ride up SE coast type of storm. Anytime you see the models wanna tkae it into the Bahamas and start turning more toward the North history will tell you this is what happens. Been there done that too many times being that I grew up on the NC/SC border.

[windstorm99]

[Derek Ortt]

I dont use the web for my satellite imagery. I have the latest images

[punkyg]

Are those squares
where the center is at.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Quickscat shows it right in the convection. With 45 knot winds on the western and southern parts. I've not figured out why cimss is doing this.

[Derek Ortt]

The NHC position is also well exposed north of the convection, but their position does not seem to make any sense based upon the cloud shape

[storms in NC]

I don't think NC right now. Way to may IF'S in this thing they call a TD. It has tryed it best to build. But it can't stack. and we need it to slow up some for it to stack.Then you will see before your eye get as big as any thing.
As far as where the low is I would have to go with Derek. He has more puters to look at then we do.

[windstorm99]

Quickscat shows it right in the convection. With 45 knot winds on the western and southern parts. I've not figured out why cimss is doing this.

We'll find out at 11am if we have an upgrade right now i say its 50/50 on the next advisory but looking more likely to me at 5pm.

[Derek Ortt]

if this slows, the shear increases

why would one who wants development want this to slow, only increasing the easterly shear

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

Take a look at the loop on the left hand side. It shows the LLC under the burst of convection(CDO like future).

[windstorm99]

This is right on forcast by the national hurricane as there calling for only slight intensification for now followed by a more steady one as it gets closer to the islands.

[JPmia]

Good morning folks.

I read the latest NHC discussion. The track is clearly worrisome for the islands and also for Florida IMHO. I credit those that say the track guidance is highly unreliable past 5 days but if you think about it the GFS has done very well with this system even 7-10 days ago when it started picking up on this and its the same model that has shown several runs of a strong system going through South Florida.

The scenario for a South Florida threat is very real at this point. The NHC mentions the possibility of a building ridge over the East Coast. That would cause this system to move WNW and get north of the Greater Antilles then eventually start to bend West again (Andrew did something similar). I am leaning towards this scenario at this point given we are in mid August and most of the models are not favoring a weakness at this point.

I am starting to finalize my preparations here in South Florida....

LOL, i suppose it wouldn't hurt to be ready for anything. For the seven years that I have been on this board, South Florida is almost always a target every year according to 5+ day model runs. I always wait until a storm gets to about just west of PR and close to the SE Bahamas before I make any decisions about getting nervous. It is in these locations that the models usually have a good handle on where it go, which is about 2-3 days away from South FL.

Right now I am worried for Cycloneye and the others in the NE Caribbean! This portion of our family here deserves our attention.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[meteorologyman]

I cant help notice that few of you are wondering why NHC isn't naming the TD4 to Dean.
You have to remeber NHC is tracking 3 storms right Flossie, Gulf of Mexico and TD4. Its a very busy day for NHC. right now they only prority is Flossie b/c they have to constantly right advisories for Hawaii, keeping in eye on flood stage, surf etc. since it is near the island, they probably won't name TD4 untill there next advisory which is around 11:00am even though it could be named right now.
think in NHC point of view, what is more important?...naming a storm or saving lives at hawaii. you got to give NHC some room to breathe, don't worry they will kepp us updated

[cheezyWXguy]

That center fix is from the 5am advisory, I believe and they only update it at advisorys, so that center fix could be 4 hours old, even if the satelite picture isnt

[KWT]

Have to admit the loop Matt just posted up does make it seem the LLC is under that convection. As Derek said until that easterly shear eases it better keep up the fast fowar speed unless it wants to end up naked like others before.