CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks very near TS status it its seemed to be at TS status for a while but i think that the NHC might wait until the 5pm advisory to uprgade it or maybe even later than that. As far as the track goes, the models are starting to get a better feel on this storm and i think the track they show now is ideal, on what night play out. Too early to tell but i shall post my forcasts on here later today.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think SSD satellites are down or not working.

[WmE]

I cant help notice that few of you are wondering why NHC isn't naming the TD4 to Dean.
You have to remeber NHC is tracking 3 storms right Flossie, Gulf of Mexico and TD4. Its a very busy day for NHC. right now they only prority is Flossie b/c they have to constantly right advisories for Hawaii, keeping in eye on flood stage, surf etc. since it is near the island, they probably won't name TD4 untill there next advisory which is around 11:00am even though it could be named right now.
think in NHC point of view, what is more important?...naming a storm or saving lives at hawaii. you got to give NHC some room to breathe, don't worry they will kepp us updated

The CPHC does advisories on Flossie not the NHC.

[meteorologyman]

I stand corrected.

[miamicanes177]

Code: Select all

844
WHXX01 KWBC 141328
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1328 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042007) 20070814 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070814  1200   070815  0000   070815  1200   070816  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.7N  38.6W   12.2N  41.2W   12.4N  44.5W   12.8N  48.1W
BAMD    11.7N  38.6W   11.8N  41.8W   11.8N  45.3W   12.1N  48.8W
BAMM    11.7N  38.6W   11.9N  41.8W   12.1N  45.3W   12.2N  49.0W
LBAR    11.7N  38.6W   11.5N  42.5W   11.5N  46.8W   11.9N  51.3W
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          35KTS          43KTS
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          35KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070816  1200   070817  1200   070818  1200   070819  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N  52.1W   14.2N  59.7W   15.6N  65.1W   19.3N  68.9W
BAMD    12.4N  52.3W   13.6N  57.8W   16.4N  63.0W   20.4N  68.1W
BAMM    12.4N  52.9W   12.9N  59.2W   15.2N  63.6W   19.7N  68.0W
LBAR    12.0N  55.7W   11.4N  62.6W   11.2N  64.4W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        50KTS          65KTS          80KTS          88KTS
DSHP        50KTS          65KTS          80KTS          88KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.7N LONCUR =  38.6W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
LATM12 =  12.0N LONM12 =  34.2W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  12.1N LONM24 =  30.7W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

A second set of 12Z runs....new center positioned 11.7N 38.6W....vs old 12Z center as 12N 38.6W

[gatorcane]

Yes, the islands are the first place we have to watch.

Luis, Hurukan and others please complete your preparations now. Good luck with this system. I think there is a chance it could brush you to the NE and that would put you on the weaker quadrant. Hopefully that happens.

[HURAKAN]

I cant help notice that few of you are wondering why NHC isn't naming the TD4 to Dean.
You have to remeber NHC is tracking 3 storms right Flossie, Gulf of Mexico and TD4. Its a very busy day for NHC. right now they only prority is Flossie b/c they have to constantly right advisories for Hawaii, keeping in eye on flood stage, surf etc. since it is near the island, they probably won't name TD4 untill there next advisory which is around 11:00am even though it could be named right now.
think in NHC point of view, what is more important?...naming a storm or saving lives at hawaii. you got to give NHC some room to breathe, don't worry they will kepp us updated

The CPHC does advisories on Flossie not the NHC.

They are only tracking ONE storm, which is TD 4. 91L is just an area of interest that they have to look at, but it doesn't require as much work as TD 4. Also, many times they have had to deal with 4 storms in the Atlantic and a few in the EPAC and there is no problem with that. There are no excuses.

[Scorpion]

If the position is correct then it is under the convection

[cheezyWXguy]

ITS DEAN! look at NRL...it says 04L DEAN

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... k_vis/dmsp

[Derek Ortt]

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97025

forecast #3... cat 3 for Carib

[DESTRUCTION5]

Sure is

[Scorpion]

[windstorm99]

TS DEAN ON NRL!!!!

[tracyswfla]

ITS DEAN! look at NRL...it says 04L DEAN

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... k_vis/dmsp

IT's not official til NHC sends it out though, right? When it does happen, watch the media cause mass panic. Especially with the models.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wahoo Dean is in the house.

[WmE]

Yeah. It's hard to ignore 50kts Quickscat barbs and T numbers of 2.5 (even though only by SSD).

[gatorcane]

ITS DEAN! look at NRL...it says 04L DEAN

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... k_vis/dmsp

IT's not official til NHC sends it out though, right? When it does happen, watch the media cause mass panic. Especially with the models.

No doubt folks, based off NRL and Sat images I think the NHC is going to call this Dean for the next TWO....

[WmE]

ITS DEAN! look at NRL...it says 04L DEAN

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... k_vis/dmsp

IT's not official til NHC sends it out though, right? When it does happen, watch the media cause mass panic. Especially with the models.

Yep, remember Pilar in 2005? Nothing is official until the NHC says so.

[punkyg]

I predict we will have hurricane Dean on our hand on sunday evening.
oh and now that its named Dean i'll call it ts4, because like i said i dislike the name Dean.

[HURAKAN]

It's getting tire this season of having to lobby to every storm!!! Welcome Dean, and please, be nice!!