Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[caneman]

Well then no offense to you then POrta. It happens for every storm though. Where one state pulls against actual obs and NHC. It just gets frustrating reading posts that start out seeming legit and then you see the state next to the name it kinda just ruins their reasoning you read. BTW-When I said case closed I meant for now. NHC didn't even mention the supposed SW florida low and I'm not sure that would even matter because NHC specifically said North coast landfall so I assume they see a pattern that will take it there..

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[jhamps10]

Dr. Lyons didn't even mention TX in his latest Tropical update. He said LA to FL.

Now that I WILL call foolish.
a lot of folks except us weather freaks don't read the NHC discussions, but for Dr Lyons to say that on-air, that will make folks feel real safe, when the way the thing in the EGOM looks, they may not be safe at all, with it looking to be moving SW to my eyes.

[GeneratorPower]

Very strong wording from Avila especially.

[hicksta]

Bottom line here, you cant say where this storm is going without a defined center. You just cant make that kind of statement.

[CrazyC83]

If you look at the latest AVN infra red loop you can clearly see that the main development is just southwest of Tampa in the eastern Gulf. It looks to be organizing or moving slightly southwest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

I'd be tempted to call that a TD, except I am not sure if it has tropical characteristics yet. I can definitely make out a circulation there...

[lrak]

Bottom line here, you cant say where this storm is going without a defined center. You just cant make that kind of statement.

Our guy here in Corpus said "no way" Texas hit. Good old Dale!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The radar above shows it perfectly, that this system is very broad and is not just one central "LLC". In fact the low off Naples east of the ULL is starting to form some "serious" or radar echo's. Wave info from a link I posted a few post back also confirm there is a LLC in southern Florida...

[Sean in New Orleans]

Latest:

Well, now this is another story. This looks like a broad low with a center around Tampa that is moving SW. This looks classic hybrid changing into a tropical system. This will be a great story to wake up to tomorrow and see what's up, IMO.

[Portastorm]

Well then no offense to you then POrta. It happens for every storm though. Where one state pulls against actual obs and NHC. It just gets frustrating reading posts that start out seeming legit and then you see the state next to the name it kinda just ruins their reasoning you read. BTW-When I said case closed I meant for now. NHC didn't even mention the supposed SW florida low and I'm not sure that would even matter because NHC specifically said North coast landfall so I assume they see a pattern that will take it there..

Fair enough caneman ... and I can relate. It's hard to argue with actual data and obs but we do see that from time to time around these parts! What was it that someone said earlier this tropical season ... the PIMBYs (Please In My Back Yard).

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like a band to the SE is trying to feed the center near Orlando. I fully understand and even see the logic of the boilerplate "all interests from Brownsville to Florida...", but realistically, based on majority of models, and main center inland in Florida holding together, this is probably a Morgan City, LA to Destin, FL threat, the further East, the weaker.

In my uneducated opinion.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well then no offense to you then POrta. It happens for every storm though. Where one state pulls against actual obs and NHC. It just gets frustrating reading posts that start out seeming legit and then you see the state next to the name it kinda just ruins their reasoning you read. BTW-When I said case closed I meant for now. NHC didn't even mention the supposed SW florida low and I'm not sure that would even matter because NHC specifically said North coast landfall so I assume they see a pattern that will take it there..

Obviously you read into the locations by the names too much, and you don't actually pay attention to actual posts. If you would actually read the substance of some of the posts..including those by skilled mets...then you would see that the concern of a center relocation SW of Florida is VERY REAL. In fact, it may already be happening. As I posted for you on the last page, pressures SW of Florida are currently just as low as those near Orlando and have been dropping sharply all evening. How do you explain that? Not really a common event, IMO. It is obvious that a surface low pressure area is forming in that region right now. Also...if it did form down there, it would likely effect the track. The further south the system forms, the more likely it is to go further west; even if there is a weakness. BTW: I consider the upper TX coast part of the "northern gulf" since technically it is along the northern edge ( http://www.utmsi.utexas.edu/outreach/be ... -large.jpg )

[Diva]

Dr. Lyons didn't even mention TX in his latest Tropical update. He said LA to FL.

Tell you what, I'll feel much safer if Jim Cantore comes down here this weekend ... then I'll know we can sound the "all clear!"

I hear ya'! All I know is that I don't want to lose electricity for the second week in a row!.....or get the second new roof in two years.

[niner21]

Okay wizards of WX.

Say this comes toward Houston. What kind of time frame would we be looking at?

Sunday morning/ afternoon/ etc...

Or is it up in the air until something actually exists?

[Air Force Met]

Fairly obvious if you read the update. They see the central FLorida low as the dominate one so for now that should end the debate as too which is dominate. Further you could make the case that the North Gulf coast means La to the Panhandle. They seems to be relying on the Nam and GFs solutions. Funny how it seems posters from Texas just don't want to hear this.

You know...it could be that some don't want to hear this...but some just might not agree with this? Just because the NHC sees this low as the dominant one doesn't make it so. They didn't see Humberto reaching hurricane intensity...and didn't have the blessed foresight to even put out a WATCH (for crying out loud) at 10 pm when the winds were 65 mph and they even said additional strengthening is possible...so they are far from perfect...as are we all.

That being said...that does not end the debate. I point you to the RUC:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... 06hr09hr12

Which shows the low has become dominant off the SW coast of Florida...which totally hoses all the GFS/NAM solutions because garbage in = garbage out.

And that is what is being said. Not that people don't want to hear it, but that people don't agree. Personally...I hope it NEVER forms. As I mentioned yesterday...my 10th anniversary is this weekend and I have special plans to be away. If it forms and heads this way...I get to cancel the plans...possibly eat about $750 bucks in non-refundable hotel/other plans....and work....since this is more than just kicks for me. And my wife gets to celebrate our anniversary alone.

[Wx_Warrior]

For TX....depends on how soon it gathers but I would say late sunday early monday

[Derek Ortt]

development is almost certain to occur SW of Florida

it is the model solution (and the models had the low east of Florida) and also surface obs from south Florida had pressures about as low as N-Central Florida today.

By friday, we should have a TD and Sturday, a landfalling TS

[Sean in New Orleans]

For TX....depends on how soon it gathers but I would say late sunday early monday

Maybe, but, it is really rare and hard for a system to go this far West late in the system. Yeah, yeah, I know about Rita, but, that isn't a common phenomena.

[Ivanhater]

Fairly obvious if you read the update. They see the central FLorida low as the dominate one so for now that should end the debate as too which is dominate. Further you could make the case that the North Gulf coast means La to the Panhandle. They seems to be relying on the Nam and GFs solutions. Funny how it seems posters from Texas just don't want to hear this.

You know...it could be that some don't want to hear this...but some just might not agree with this? Just because the NHC sees this low as the dominant one doesn't make it so. They didn't see Humberto reaching hurricane intensity...and didn't have the blessed foresight to even put out a WATCH (for crying out loud) at 10 pm when the winds were 65 mph and they even said additional strengthening is possible...so they are far from perfect...as are we all.

That being said...that does not end the debate. I point you to the RUC:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... 06hr09hr12

Which shows the low has become dominant off the SW coast of Florida...which totally hoses all the GFS/NAM solutions because garbage in = garbage out.
And that is what is being said. Not that people don't want to hear it, but that people don't agree. Personally...I hope it NEVER forms. As I mentioned yesterday...my 10th anniversary is this weekend and I have special plans to be away. If it forms and heads this way...I get to cancel the plans...possibly eat about $750 bucks in non-refundable hotel/other plans....and work....since this is more than just kicks for me. And my wife gets to celebrate our anniversary alone.

Why would that hose the GFS and NAM?...they both develop the low SW of Florida

[Steve]

>>...I "ain't," stupid. I'm proud to be in a recovery area that I know is no longer threatened. Now, if people in other areas of the country that watch CNN seem to feel differently are more concerned, that's cool. That's fine. I'll stick to what I know. Now, back to the system.

Dude. I'm 99% sure you are alon504 on Saintsreport. I'm disappointed that after > 9 hours away from a computer, I can't read about what's going on with the storm. But you failed to respond on those Saintsreport threads that got backed to the top when you simply disappeared. If you want to stick to what you know, you probably ought not chide people. Let's take a look again at some of the things you've said this year:

1) Telling me of all people: All you have to do is typical weather internet research, which I do every day. It's not that hard.

2) (from July cool front): But, if this pattern continues, we can feel pretty good about hurricane season as this pattern will push systems East pretty quickly and forcefully.

3) The heat and Summer is out West this year, TPS. You think Summer is just beginning? I have to disagree....we're less than two weeks from August. We've been experiencing a typical New Orleans Summer this year, IMHO. I don't feel that we are in a threatening pattern for the tropics this year. I don't see it, at all. Could I be wrong? Of course. But, I watch every year and I just don't see it this year. I see a cooler, earlier Autumn for the South this year.

4) Tropical Depression 4 (Cat 5 Dean): More than likely this will be a fish storm, IMO...we'll see.

5) Just because it is hot doesn't mean it won't cool down by early September. I haven't seen anything that changes this...

Anyway, just some food for thought. None of us is perfect, but that dude TPS over there has been pretty solid this year.

Steve (now heading back to Page 50 to actually try to find some information on what's going on).