TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[cycloneye]

So since Humberto is now taken what is the next name that this COULD be?

Ingrid

[Gustywind]

TD 8 is moving south of the 11 AM forecast already.

Absolutely Luis, good looking...since this morning as we have noticed that , eyes ....and since7am this system is drifting west, and with my all humility i can't see any wnw movement on my poor untrained eyes or my EYES ARE DECEIVING ME or my if if the track is more souther than predict....suspicious things planed on all the Leewards...hope the weakning ridge for tommorow will be on tape...[color=#FF0000]but right now it will be an utopia to say that the system is moving WEST[/color]

[Gustywind]

west north west excuse me

[cycloneye]

12/1745 UTC 13.5N 45.2W T2.5/2.5 08L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Can we say Ingrid at 5 PM?

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS
ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE EIGHTH OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. AT 12/1500 UTC
THIS SYSTEM WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 44.6W...OR ABOUT 980 NM EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. IT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS JUST WEST OF THE CENTER FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN
44W-46W.

[KWT]

I think we probably can cycloneye, though it doesn't actually look as good as it did a few hours ago IMO but other have said these systems will pulse up and down and we now we are heading towards a D-min I suppose.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12/1745 UTC 13.5N 45.2W T2.5/2.5 08L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Can we say Ingrid at 5 PM?

No Question Luis..

[storms in NC]

So since Humberto is now taken what is the next name that this COULD be?

Ingrid

They might as well name this one. They are handing out names fast this year and slow at calling TD. But really is it cause it is very close to land?

[Gustywind]

12/1745 UTC 13.5N 45.2W T2.5/2.5 08L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Can we say Ingrid at 5 PM?

No more doubts Cycloneye we should have Ingrid at 5 pm for sure based on the Dvorak t numbers!

[Buck]

I must say, I wanted this one to be Humberto since I knew it would be interesting and a long-tracker and I like the name Humberto... but I guess Ingrid will be ok.

[windstorm99]

This better not happen...

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[Brent]

This better not happen...

That looks like a reasonable track to me. This is going to be a big story.

[hurricanetrack]

I do not see that AccuWx path as being reliable. What about the shear forecast by the models? Is that just going to go away.....?

Time will tell though....

[KWT]

For once that track from Accuweather may well end up being closer to the mark then the intial NHC track. the Accuweather track may also be a little too fast however as well but if that track is right it screams Florida.

[jhamps10]

This better not happen...

Looks very reasonable to me position wise windstorm, actually looks a lot more realistic than the NHC forecast right now. and I can't stand accuweather. But that also was not a bash at the NHC either.

[hial2]

This better not happen...

That looks like a reasonable track to me. This is going to be a big story.

Reasonable and probably likely..Florida in the cone for the first time this year..

[windstorm99]

I know brent looks also reasonable to me also.Indeed this would be huge if the track were to take shape.

[x-y-no]

I think the AccuWx track is entirely credible, although I'd probably hold off on calling a Cat 2 as of now (could easily happen but I want to get some more input on the likely upper air situation days 3 to 5).

[x-y-no]

Just noticed ... they're calling it much faster than the model guidance and NHC have it.

Interesting. I think NHC is too slow, but maybe not by quite that much.