CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[CrazyC83]

010
URNT15 KNHC 210554
AF306 1504A DEAN HDOB 17 20070821
054500 1851N 08645W 6968 02822 9645 +125 +117 098111 113 079 000 00
054530 1850N 08645W 6967 02799 9618 +126 +114 101118 121 082 000 00
054600 1848N 08646W 6967 02771 9577 +135 +113 100125 127 087 000 00
054630 1847N 08646W 6961 02742 9547 +126 +126 099134 136 093 000 00
054700 1845N 08646W 6967 02693 9496 +130 +126 099144 147 100 002 00
054730 1844N 08646W 6967 02637 9439 +128 +128 100150 152 112 005 00
054800 1843N 08646W 6970 02577 9387 +121 +121 102154 156 119 006 00
054830 1842N 08647W 6948 02535 9307 +127 +127 103147 155 121 007 03
054900 1840N 08647W 6977 02429 9202 +160 +160 104128 138 122 003 00
054930 1839N 08647W 6973 02376 9122 +186 +162 104095 108 111 000 00
055000 1837N 08647W 6970 02345 9080 +200 +152 111058 071 067 002 00
055030 1836N 08648W 6965 02349 9081 +197 +148 127028 035 040 003 03
055100 1834N 08649W 6967 02355 9083 +200 +145 134019 021 027 002 03
055130 1833N 08650W 6968 02344 9069 +212 +133 100013 015 021 003 03
055200 1831N 08651W 6964 02353 9068 +218 +129 351017 027 024 004 03
055230 1831N 08653W 6965 02369 9101 +195 +140 340035 036 999 999 03
055300 1832N 08653W 6963 02360 9088 +200 +138 359026 032 999 999 03
055330 1833N 08651W 6971 02336 9067 +211 +134 073014 018 020 003 03
055400 1833N 08650W 6966 02350 9069 +215 +129 128022 027 034 003 00
055430 1833N 08648W 6972 02359 9092 +206 +138 147040 043 046 004 00
$$

907mb extrapolated, 156 kt FL (140 kt surface with 90%, 132 kt surface with 85%)

[whereverwx]

Here's the latest image. Still looks decent.

[CrazyC83]

Recon reported 907mb extrapolated...

[Scorpion]

907

[Normandy]

Wow Dean didn't deepen as much as I suspected....gooooood news..

EDIT:
Well, his pressure did, but I expected higher winds.

[Coredesat]

[CrazyC83]

Wow Dean didn't deepen as much as I suspected....gooooood news..

EDIT:
Well, his pressure did, but I expected higher winds.

They are still near the eye though, next update may be higher (at least winds).

[Hockey007]

Was that NW quad?

[Zardoz]

Here's the latest image.

The eye is going right into downtown Chetumal, isn't it?

Ambergris Cay is going to get smeared.

[CrazyC83]

I think the 2 am advisory is delayed so they can wait for the vortex message.

[sponger]

The Northern tip of that island is going to be wiped clean.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DEAN BEARING DOWN ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF CHILITEPEC WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED BY AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO AND ABOUT 260 MILES...420 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE
MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE EYE OF DEAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A FEW HOURS. DEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AS DEAN CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS
911 MB...26.90 INCHES.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...18.5 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

[Scorpion]

People need to chill out about the winds. The storm has levelled off and will not have the same winds as it was when it was deepening. 140 kt is nothing to sneeze at.

[CrazyC83]

260
URNT15 KNHC 210604
AF306 1504A DEAN HDOB 18 20070821
055500 1832N 08646W 6957 02402 9124 +190 +148 162049 055 999 999 03
055530 1831N 08646W 6962 02376 9106 +197 +140 178046 055 999 999 03
055600 1831N 08648W 6959 02362 9059 +227 +122 168020 027 038 007 03
055630 1831N 08650W 6978 02331 9066 +215 +129 237004 007 024 005 03
055700 1831N 08652W 6975 02338 9069 +210 +134 359010 013 024 004 03
055730 1833N 08653W 6961 02351 9066 +214 +133 081019 025 999 999 03
055800 1834N 08651W 6962 02357 9072 +209 +131 098026 027 999 999 03
055830 1832N 08650W 6971 02330 9063 +213 +132 126010 019 013 004 03
055900 1830N 08650W 6972 02346 9080 +206 +133 244031 042 039 004 00
055930 1829N 08650W 6967 02383 9123 +191 +139 249054 067 056 004 03
060000 1828N 08651W 6970 02424 9173 +169 +148 256075 081 999 999 03
060030 1829N 08651W 6951 02393 9116 +187 +139 259049 058 072 006 03
060100 1831N 08652W 6972 02334 9064 +216 +127 253014 027 039 006 00
060130 1832N 08652W 6969 02334 9060 +218 +128 078014 020 020 004 00
060200 1834N 08653W 6971 02345 9078 +207 +134 069031 035 040 004 00
060230 1836N 08653W 6968 02368 9106 +192 +143 070044 051 047 005 03
060300 1837N 08653W 6960 02393 9135 +174 +155 072052 053 999 999 03
060330 1837N 08652W 6969 02366 9097 +201 +144 083048 052 999 999 03
060400 1835N 08652W 6969 02340 9058 +216 +133 079029 036 042 004 03
060430 1833N 08651W 6978 02327 9050 +229 +125 128009 013 010 003 03
$$

905mb

[CronkPSU]

2AM update has the pressure at 911

[Acral]

Not a good situation.

I would say let's hope the storm dies over the peninsula, but that is not going to happen.

[CrazyC83]

Last recon had 905mb...

[secretforecaster]

TWC just stated that Dean was 100 mi. east of Chetumal heading due west & that they kept the winds at 160.

[Normandy]

People need to chill out about the winds. The storm has levelled off and will not have the same winds as it was when it was deepening. 140 kt is nothing to sneeze at.

Actually Scorpion....unless they find higher winds it appears Dean has WEAKENED....Last recon measured 162kt flight level.

[miamicanes177]

Last recon had 905mb...

NHC must believe that report is suspect