Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[hurricanetrack]

Agreed, no recon needed today.

This is quite the cliffhanger, isn't it? Better than any summer TV shows! And if it comes back, could be quite the ratings winner!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at the Channel 2 IR, there is a stretched center near 28.8ºN and 69.5ºW, but all the thunderstorms streaming by on the front seem to have nothing to do with the center.

I wouldbn't be surprised to see whatever center there is become absorbed back into the front.

Will the next invest be 90L or 91L?

Because if that really big low cloud swirl out around 40ºW ever starts firing thunderstorms, it'll be something to see.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[ronjon]

There is still a vigorous LLC at 28.8N-69.5W. Shear looks like it is finally starting to relax a little bit. As the gigantic high builds north over the low pressure, it will further increase low level convergence. That with relaxing shear will start the process of tropical cyclone development. All the models are still in agreement with cyclogenesis so I don't doubt it will happen - I think the only change from yesterday is that the system may not be as strong as earlier predicted - may still achieve CAT 1 status however - 06Z GFDL shows that much.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[Frank2]

I agree, MGC - it never did look very impressive (unlike the "A" storm that formed in the same area, but did look like a fairly powerful subtropical gale center)...

[Thunder44]

as I said, we can look forward to a full day of "it's dead" posts

None of the models even had this intensifying until late tomorrow and Friday

Exactly what I was thinking, Derek, as I read through pages 46-49 after coming home. The real development threat isn't until Friday and Saturday when shear relaxes.

Looks like at least this prediction prediction is coming true Derek.

[windstorm99]

What happend!I thought were on the way for a cat2 lol....I knew from looking at that WV loop last night that this thing was on its last legs.Overall thanks pros for what you do on this board.Adrian

[OuterBanker]

Went to bed last night sure that 99L was dead. Although I'll miss the rain, it's ok. But what's weird is that the local TV stations are saying that all the models are bringing a storm to us Sun into Mon, even mentioned on Today national segment. What gives? (4am JB even wrote it off).

[hurricanedude]

no doubt there is a LLC.......friday at the earliest is when this thing was suppose to get going anyway...so why are you all shocked thats its struggling.....models said friday is the day...not wednesday, not thursday.....so give it 24hrs before ya give it the final axe..

[storms in NC]

What happend!I thought were on the way for a cat2 lol....I knew from looking at that WV loop last night that this thing was on its last legs.Overall thanks pros for what you do on this board.Adrian

I don't think it is dead. They never said that it would do any thing till Thursday are Friday. Still need to wait and see. A cat 1 iffy. TS good Chance. Going with the frontal boundary priceless

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[weatherman21]

Latest water vapor imagery and visible satellite both indicate this system has indeed become less established. However, the NAM/WRF continues to call for a lanfalling system along the NC/SC coastline by Sunday. The latest model run of the WRF is actually calling for a more westward motion than ealier runs and has the system making landfall along the NC/SC border.
Though the low pressure systsem is not organized now, I have atleast some confidence that when the builds to the north and becomes established, this disturbance may begin to intensify. If this is to intensify in the near-term, from the beginning I was not anticipating on this feature acquiring any strength until the ridge became established and the models have not been forecasting that to happen until tonight or tomorrow morning. I see this as only a possibility, but as the models have been calling for the upper-layer trough to retreat and for the ridge to build by tonight or tomoorw morning, it appears the environment will become more favorable; although, that is only if the system survives the current effects of the trough. The trough is obviously still having an impact.

Visible Satellite at 12:15Z


Water Vapor at 12:15Z

[fci]

It just happens sometimes.
Models can spin up a storm and all the "conditions" can look perfect; but... it is still Mother Nature and NO ONE knows for sure!!!

Invest 92 was looked at the be a Florida threat and there were pages after pages after pages in a thread where many became hot and bothered and sound the alarms and it just died.

Invest 99 "appears" to go the same route.
Chance it could still spin up but becoming much more unlikely.

I'll just take one more toss at what I said last night and that is that we all deserve to say our opinion, WITH RESPECT to others; on this board.
EVEN IF WE DISAGREE WITH THE MAJORITY including Pros.

This Invest and others prove that there is some "gut feeling" in predicting what will happen. Even if science looks like a sure thing, experience can sometimes lead to a different conclusion especially if it is an "odd" situation that has to occur for development.

99L was an odd situation.
Models almost universally predicting a piece of an old front would become a Tropical Cyclone and would do a loop to strike the US.
Not your "garden variety" home grown system.
And 92L was also "odd". A system that would track straight west to Florida from a place, 22/55; that storms just don't do that from.

So, my point is that all should be respected for their opinions if there is "some basis"; even just plain old experience and "common sense" that drives the opinion.

Having said that, this situation again points out the value and beauty of S2K where we all learned something, once again; about Mother Nature and how unpredictable she remains.

And that is the last thing I will say about this.

[Frank2]

Lots of discussion here that goes both ways, but, at least for now, the truth is that the system is very weak and even further east of yesterday's position, which makes anything that does form more of an issue for marine interests only - as Steve Lyons said last night, another front is due off the east coast by the weekend, so, that makes for an even more unfavorable environment for whatever does form...

[hurricanetrack]

Well, looking at the floater loop for 99L in the visable, it really is a nice vigorous circulation. No question at all about that. Speed it up, watch it, you can see it.

Note too it is NOT moving a bit east anymore- and if anything, slightly south. So- THAT part of the models' prediction is beginning to take shape.

With such a vigorous circulation and such warm water, and UNANIMOUS model agreement, it might just make us say, "wow! what an amazing comeback!"

Hey, Duke did it against Maryland in 2001 when they were down 22 in the first half- came back to win by 10. Awesome. But that's a different subject all together. Duke also lost quite a few games when being up by 17 or more! Ouch, those really hurt.

I will go out and say this will be a Duke V MD comeback like 2001. Why not? There's nothing else going on out there....

[windstorm99]

The upper level low that really is still there and has not backed off as predicted and continues to rip up 99L...Looks more like a cold front then anything tropical.

[N2FSU]

next

[storms in NC]

The upper level low that really is still there and has not backed off as predicted and continues to rip up 99L...Looks more like a cold front then anything tropical.

No I don't think so. It is just keeping it compamy till a better looking gail OH front comes to the coast. LOL

[Stormcenter]

The upper level low that really is still there and has not backed off as predicted and continues to rip up 99L...Looks more like a cold front then anything tropical.

Good post.

[Stormcenter]

Well, looking at the floater loop for 99L in the visable, it really is a nice vigorous circulation. No question at all about that. Speed it up, watch it, you can see it.

Note too it is NOT moving a bit east anymore- and if anything, slightly south. So- THAT part of the models' prediction is beginning to take shape.

With such a vigorous circulation and such warm water, and UNANIMOUS model agreement, it might just make us say, "wow! what an amazing comeback!"

Hey, Duke did it against Maryland in 2001 when they were down 22 in the first half- came back to win by 10. Awesome. But that's a different subject all together. Duke also lost quite a few games when being up by 17 or more! Ouch, those really hurt.

I will go out and say this will be a Duke V MD comeback like 2001. Why not? There's nothing else going on out there....

Yes it is very quiet out there (except for whatever 99L is) considering it's September 6th and we are nearing the so called "peak" of the hurricane season. We still have a good 3-4 weeks of primetime left though.