Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[NcentralFlaguy]

This storm is about done. Dry air is getting sucked into the "apparent center" from the SW and has intruded already into western Haiti. There appears to be another ULL forming between Cuba and Haiti based on water vapor imagery. Convection is waning and is seriously disrupted by the mountains of Hispanola. I really don't see how this system could strengthen given the above conditions and I could see it downgraded to a depression soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-wv.html

thats actually the new llc which for lack of a better term "jumped over" Haiti this morning to reform close to the convection. at least thats where wxman has the center plotted, and vis sat backs that up...looks to be poised to start moving off to the west..

[CalmBeforeStorm]

This storm is about done. Dry air is getting sucked into the "apparent center" from the SW and has intruded already into western Haiti. There appears to be another ULL forming between Cuba and Haiti based on water vapor imagery. Convection is waning and is seriously disrupted by the mountains of Hispanola. I really don't see how this system could strengthen given the above conditions and I could see it downgraded to a depression soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-wv.html

thats actually the new llc which for lack of a better term "jumped over" Haiti this morning to reform close to the convection. at least thats where wxman has the center plotted, and vis sat backs that up...looks to be poised to start moving off to the west..

I don't think we can assume a new LLC until we see a definitive low level spin and convection in the area. It's not a slam dunk that this reforms.

[NcentralFlaguy]

Here's a surface plot with the low center identified.

here is where wxman has the center about 30 min ago, its also backed up with surface observations, but your right anything is possible

[boca]

Noel is moving almost due north. I don't see a WNW movement happening with the storm.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Blown Away]

I know the setup is completely different, but don't the models collapsing and looping remind you of Jeanne. How many times was Jeanne supposed to be kicked NE when it was E of FL. GFDL of course has been consistent w/ NNW then NE turn.

[boca]

Where is the trough that will eject Noel to the NE?

[NcentralFlaguy]

Noel is moving almost due north. I don't see a WNW movement happening with the storm.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Im not sure I would use the infared loop to determine which way its moving ,however it does appear that the associated convection is lifting to the north. I have been watching the visible loop closely, but I cant figure out what its doing anymore either, my best guess..and its only a guess, is that it is trying to reorganize somewhere in the vicinity of the open water between cuba and Haiti...just north of that channel. I dont know though, ronjon may have been right. It may be on its way out. who knows at this point

[NcentralFlaguy]

Where is the trough that will eject Noel to the NE?

I believe that stationary occluded front draped across the peninsula is supposed to become amplified by the big bubble of cool dry air currently just infringing on the se you can barely make it out on the wv loop but its there, I guess thats what they are talking about.

[Chacor]

Code: Select all

TCCA22 KNHC 291305
STDCCA

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON OCT 29 2007
 
 
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...T.S. NOEL
 
                                             MAX RAINFALL
  DATE/TIME      LOCATION       MOTION      MEAN      LAST
 -----------   ------------     ------     -------   -------
 29/1215 UTC   18.6N  73.3W     340/05     22.1 IN   11.1 IN
 
 
LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...
 
     DISTANCE          LEFT OF CENTER      RIGHT OF CENTER
   -------------      ---------------      ---------------
   0 TO 1 DEGREE       0.6 TO  1.7 IN       0.8 TO  3.2 IN
   1 TO 2 DEGREE       0.2 TO  1.9 IN       2.3 TO  6.6 IN
   2 TO 3 DEGREE       0.3 TO  2.1 IN       3.9 TO  7.7 IN
   3 TO 4 DEGREE       0.0 TO  0.6 IN       6.7 TO 11.1 IN

                        ...LEGEND...
 
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NAME OR NUMBER ASSIGNED TO SYSTEM
                         (E.G. TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, TROPICAL
                         DISTURBANCE 01, SURFACE TROUGH)
 
DATE/TIME...             DAY OF MONTH AND TIME IN UNIVERSAL TIME
                         COORDINATES (UTC) IN A DY/HRMN FORMAT
 
LOCATION...              ESTIMATED CENTER OF SYSTEM OR ADVISORY
                         POSITION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TENTHS
                         OF DEGREES OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE
 
MOTION...                ESTIMATED DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SYSTEM
                         IN DEGREES AND KNOTS
 
MEAN MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE 24-HOUR MEAN MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF
                         RAINFALL FOR THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED
                         ON FOUR SATELLITE IMAGES SIX HOURS APART
 
LAST MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FOR
                         THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED ON THE MOST
                         RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE
 
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN FOUR
                         DEGREES (240 NM) LEFT AND RIGHT OF THE
                         SYSTEM CENTER IN ONE DEGREE (60NM)
                         INCREMENTS...LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
                         (1 IN = 25.4 MM)

22 inches is a lot of rain.

[Chacor]

439
WTNT31 KNHC 291444
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...CENTER OF DISORGANIZED NOEL ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST
OF HAITI...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA
AND SANTIAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...130 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT
300 MILES...500 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE NOEL THIS
AFTERNOON TO MORE PRECISELY LOCATE THE CIRCULATION CENTER.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...NOEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS...
PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...19.9 N...73.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI

[Chacor]

WTNT31 KNHC 291444
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...CENTER OF DISORGANIZED NOEL ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST
OF HAITI...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA
AND SANTIAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

[greels]

We're now reeceiving high winds and rains here on the island of Provo.....today is a declared holiday for the Island....so wonder how many folks know that we are under a tropical storm warning.

[Chacor]

226
WTNT41 KNHC 291456
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

NOEL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE COMPLEX
TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EMERGED NORTH
OF THE ISLAND A FEW HOURS AGO...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REFORMING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
HAITI. UNTIL THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCATION...FORWARD MOTION...AND EVEN
THE EXISTENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN.

OUR BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
335/10...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST A SURFACE LOW TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE OVER THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON
NOEL BECOMING A HURRICANE THAT WILL ACCELERATE QUICKLY NORTHWARD
AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE ECMWF THAT DEPICTS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW HANGING OUT NEAR CUBA FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
THE REMAINING MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AND FORECAST A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME OF THOSE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...FORECAST
LITTLE MOTION ON DAYS 3-5...WHILE THE NOGAPS SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION IN THAT TIME FRAME. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
SHOWS A WEAKENING AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONE THAT SLOWLY
RECURVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AFTER 48 HOURS...IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...SIMILAR TO THE HWRF
SOLUTION AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ASSUMING THE CYCLONE REGAINS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION AFTER BEING
DISRUPTED OVER HISPANIOLA...ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN CONDITIONS SHOULD
PROVIDE NOEL WITH AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE NEW
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. THIS
FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF GUIDANCE...AND
BELOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 19.9N 73.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 21.2N 73.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 22.4N 74.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 23.4N 75.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 76.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 26.0N 76.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 28.0N 75.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 30.0N 72.5W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI

[ronjon]

We definitely need recon to figure out what's going on. I'm not sure that the LLC the NHC is refering to is not an MLC. Winds at Santiago, DR are steady from the east as well as Puerto Plata on the north coast of the DR. One would expect, since the center of the storm is at 19.9N-73W, that winds might reflect a westerly or SW component at stations to the east.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MDST.html

[Chacor]

Knabb and Mainelli do point that out in their discussion.

UNTIL THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCATION...FORWARD MOTION...AND EVEN
THE EXISTENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN.

[chadtm80]

[ronjon]

Knabb and Mainelli do point that out in their discussion.

UNTIL THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCATION...FORWARD MOTION...AND EVEN
THE EXISTENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN.

Thanks Chacor - just about to post that. Lots of uncertainty.

[wxman57]

We definitely need recon to figure out what's going on. I'm not sure that the LLC the NHC is refering to is not an MLC. Winds at Santiago, DR are steady from the east as well as Puerto Plata on the north coast of the DR. One would expect, since the center of the storm is at 19.9N-73W, that winds might reflect a westerly or SW component at stations to the east.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MDST.html

It's so disorganized and the convection covers such a large area to the east that it doesn't really matter exactly where the center is. But I can see low-level streamers moving from SW to NE across the NW tip of Haiti, indicating the LLC is northwest of the new NHC position.

[Vortex]

looks like the llc is reforming just off the coast of Haiti at this hour...

[Sanibel]

After Ingrid bolted NW the steering currents in the area were N not W as someone said about Dean and Felix. Noel hit a synoptic brick wall and went N. There's a slightly more NW component today, but this one should go east of Florida - as far as the NHC track error. We're back in the Atlantic now. Noel has had a structural wack from Hispaniola. How much it gets its structure back we'll see. Dominican Republic has had a serious flood from this most likely.