TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Brent]

Ugh wrong thread

[Brent]

Ugh wrong thread

[KFDM Meteorologist]

NHC weakens this system

[CrazyC83]

They mention the only reason they held back was because the exact center location was hard to find.

[SWFLA_CANE]

NHC weakens this system

They must be counting in an increase in shear.

[gatorcane]

NHC weakens this system

sure but how many times does this happen allowing the system to be pushed westward and then explode in an environment more favorable.

This is actually not good news for those in Florida and up the EC of the US.........

a stronger system could feel weaknesses in the ridge better than if it remains not so deep..

[MiamiensisWx]

Remains a TD at 5, NHC actually WEAKENS it at Day 5.

Brown tends to be a more conservative forecaster. I think he has resembled Formosa on some occasions. I'm actually surprised the initial intensity wasn't raised to ~35 kts (39 mph) at 5 p.m. EDT. Well, it's a priority issue - the "top guns" are working on Humberto, which is the biggest immediate threat. Brown is a good forecaster, but I've been puzzled by his occasional stances in the past and recent months. His recent discussions on TD 8 haven't covered the bases in greater details.

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE
THIS MORNING WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER ESTIMATED NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT 35 KT. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY PASSING ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF NOAA
BUOY 41041...WHICH HAS REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 28 KT AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008.6 MB.

That seems too suspicious, in my opinion. That data (away from the LLC) appears to support stronger 1-min sfc winds near ~35-40 kts (~40-45 mph) closer to the center. Why would you rely on satellite data when you have QuikSCAT and a (apparently) reliable buoy observation? Additionally, the convection is likely obscuring the broad LLC; this trend indicates more organization. I'm not criticising the TPC, but I would have appreciate more reasoning as to why he was more conservative on TD 8's initial intensity. I think we have a marginal tropical storm, but I can't disagree with other portions in the discussion.

[windstorm99]

[Blown Away]

NHC weakens this system

sure but how many times does this happen allowing the system to be pushed westward and then explode in an environment more favorable.

This is actually not good news for those in Florida and up the EC of the US.........

a stronger system could feel weaknesses in the ridge better than if it remains not so deep..

I thought so to, but didn't Ortt say the opposite w/ Dean. Not sure when that rule applies.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The NHC suggests that the system won't be a problem for us in the islands as there wont be a strong ridge to guide it in a westward direction...

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Brent]

Remains a TD at 5, NHC actually WEAKENS it at Day 5.

Brown tends to be a more conservative forecaster. I think he has resembled Formosa on some occasions. I'm actually surprised the initial intensity wasn't raised to ~35 kts (39 mph) at 5 p.m. EDT. Well, it's a priority issue - the "top guns" are working on Humberto, which is the biggest immediate threat. Brown is a good forecaster, but I've been puzzled by his occasional stances in the past and recent months. His recent discussions on TD 8 haven't covered the bases in greater details.

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE
THIS MORNING WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER ESTIMATED NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT 35 KT. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY PASSING ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF NOAA
BUOY 41041...WHICH HAS REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 28 KT AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008.6 MB.

That seems too suspicious, in my opinion. That data (away from the LLC) appears to support stronger 1-min sfc winds near ~35-40 kts (~40-45 mph) closer to the center. Why would you rely on satellite data when you have QuikSCAT and a (apparently) reliable buoy observation? Additionally, the convection is likely obscuring the broad LLC; this trend indicates more organization. I'm not criticising the TPC, but I would have appreciate more reasoning as to why he was more conservative on TD 8's initial intensity. I think we have a marginal tropical storm, but I can't disagree with other portions in the discussion.

I'm guessing conservative because it's DAYS from bothering land. I've seen them do this stuff like this before.

[CrazyC83]

Remains a TD at 5, NHC actually WEAKENS it at Day 5.

Brown tends to be a more conservative forecaster. I think he has resembled Formosa on some occasions. I'm actually surprised the initial intensity wasn't raised to ~35 kts (39 mph) at 5 p.m. EDT. Well, it's a priority issue - the "top guns" are working on Humberto, which is the biggest immediate threat. Brown is a good forecaster, but I've been puzzled by his occasional stances in the past and recent months. His recent discussions on TD 8 haven't covered the bases in greater details.

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE
THIS MORNING WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER ESTIMATED NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT 35 KT. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY PASSING ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF NOAA
BUOY 41041...WHICH HAS REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 28 KT AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008.6 MB.

That seems too suspicious, in my opinion. That data (away from the LLC) appears to support stronger 1-min sfc winds near ~35-40 kts (~40-45 mph) closer to the center. Why would you rely on satellite data when you have QuikSCAT and a (apparently) reliable buoy observation? Additionally, the convection is likely obscuring the broad LLC; this trend indicates more organization. I'm not criticising the TPC, but I would have appreciate more reasoning as to why he was more conservative on TD 8's initial intensity.

The mention was due to the difficulty in locating the exact center (suggesting the center is moving around?). I personally disagree with the call as well (I would have gone TS Ingrid at 35-40 kt right now too) but that is what it is for now.

When do the next Dvorak numbers come out?

[x-y-no]

Far be it from me to argue with the NHC, but the center location looks somewhat SW of their fix to me - around 13.1N 45.7W.

[bocadude86]

Im guessing they didnt upgrade because its so far from land. Humberto is the top priority right now.

[Extremecane]

Imo its a TS looking good and deep convection continue to fir and organizing bettter and better:

[Derek Ortt]

lets see the issues I have with this forecast

1. The center location is too far east
2. I cannot see this slowing to 5KT. It has accleerated today and the models had it slowly
3. Only GFS shows strong enough shear to weaken the TC... even SHIPS has abandoned that solution

[mattpetre]

NHC weakens this system

sure but how many times does this happen allowing the system to be pushed westward and then explode in an environment more favorable.

This is actually not good news for those in Florida and up the EC of the US.........

a stronger system could feel weaknesses in the ridge better than if it remains not so deep..

I thought so to, but didn't Ortt say the opposite w/ Dean. Not sure when that rule applies.

Basically, my understanding is that without deepening it tends to stick with the shallow layer winds versus the typical steering currents. Right?

[KWT]

Yeah the NHC does weaken the system at 120hrs due to an increase in shear however I think what Derek always said should be applied, the models (esp GFS based systems) really are bad when it comes to handling shear, as we saw quite well with our old Freind Gabby, I don't recall one single model showing any shear and yet we all know what happened in truth!
The models probably won't have a very good grasp of the exact jet stream set-up at 120hrs out.
Of course thats also assuming this system gets as far north as expected as well, I'm not sold on that idea yet...

A touch surprised they didn't up this to TS but I suppose they have enough time to wait right now.

[canegrl04]

Things aren't looking too good for next week along the US coasts

[Derek Ortt]

nobody that I have asked at the office agrees with that center location. I am going with 46.0W and 13.3N for the 5 p.m. nwhhc update