Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[bwhorton2007]

all i can say is there will be plenty of cya at the nhc if this thing plays out the way it looks now and some good crow dinners too.

[tigergirl]

So how does it look now and who will be eating crow????

[caneman]

Well AFM, I agree you got me on the placement of the low, however, I noticed you failed to mention how I was/am correct so far in saying La. The Euro (the mets favorite) has shifted significantly closer to the GFS and NAM solutions I mentioned last night.

[Portastorm]

Well AFM, I agree you got me on the placement of the low, however, I noticed you failed to mention how I was/am correct so far in saying La. The Euro (the mets favorite) has shifted significantly closer to the GFS and NAM solutions I mentioned last night.

Well I'll give you some props this morning caneman! You did say that last night. I'll feel better though once recon establishes some sort of actual center in the southeast Gulf. Then the models can all initialize off the same point. But you're right ... the Euro moved its landfall point further east. Everything seems to be centered right now on the north central Gulf coast.

[AJC3]

<snip>

[jasons2k]

Careful please

[tolakram]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42014

I'm not sure how they can ignore this, but perhaps the thinking is that the old surface low from central FL is sliding into or under the slowly developing low off the SW coast? If you call that slow.

[hiflyer]

Couple things....clearly we have a player off the SW coast...TPA radar is very good at looking at it...and it is still quite broad with what appears to be 2-3 small 'spins' which I think would be quite normal at this point. It also appears that none of the models initialized anywhere near it that I have seen so far so I would think that destination is a bit of a wild card.... right now indications are 75 miles due west of the coast at about 27.17/83.82 based on storm tracks via GRlevel3 but I am sure that will change once one single low starts to dominate down to the surface....which may be rather quickly later on today as the sun get's into it given the sst's and the amount of moisture out there. I agree it is going to be an interesting afternoon...get your work out of the way early today...

[Chacor]

Based on how things appears this morning, would it appear that recon will still go out as planned?

[cycloneye]

AFM and Tony,please dont fall into what it appears the discussion betwenn both of you is going.The important thing is for both to analize whart is going on on real time now,to let know the members what is going on. What both are doing is going away from analizing to a conversation that both can do by pms not in public.

[tolakram]

Not all people within NOAA are ...

So if the SW low is the one that develops then what would be the reasoning? The one thing I haven't seen described is HOW the NHC scenario with the surface low over central Florida will play out. Everyone can make mistakes.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Could we have two developing systems? One in the GOM and one off the SE coast?

[Dean4Storms]

I happen to agree with you AJC3, the organized low that moved in around the Cape continued west into central FL just north of Orlando, I didn't note any low level broad swirl swinging it around either, otherwise it would have moved more W to eventually WSW. The NHC was spot on in following this low until it dissapates or another low forms an LLC and takes over which maybe occuring this AM off FTM, we'll see.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well AFM, I agree you got me on the placement of the low, however, I noticed you failed to mention how I was/am correct so far in saying La. The Euro (the mets favorite) has shifted significantly closer to the GFS and NAM solutions I mentioned last night.

Well, in an uncertain world, this is as close to a done deal for Morgan City, LA to Destin, FL as I can think of.

Unofficially, of course.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[cycloneye]

The low is officialy in the GOM.The tropical models at 12:00 UTC iniciate there.

[bbadon]

The low is officialy in the GOM.The tropical models at 12:00 UTC iniciate there.

Can someone explain to me what the models are seeing even with the new initialization point they are sending this nortwest. Looking at the upper air pattern (Water VApor) I just dont see it. Help please?

[Dean4Storms]

I think I see a LLC developing from the early visibles about 80 miles WSW of Tampa.

[Dean4Storms]

You can even still make out the LLC from the central FL low just NE of Tampa.

[A1A]

Has there ever been a named storm develop from a ULL? I thought that just didn't happen?

If I may repeat my question - is not the L currently in the SE GOM part of the previous ULL??