CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Windspeed]

Ugh, Dean is moving at nearly 20kts. Mid-level shear is relaxing, but the steering flow is still 20kts. There is no way this storm is only at 55W in 60 hours! In 60 hours this storm will already be through the Windards and in the Northeast Caribbean. This makes a huge difference on position versus the steering flow north of the Greater Antilles. I would not trust these runs beyond 50 hours right now until we have some better data or the models start initializing this system at correct forward speed!!

[cyclonic chronic]

dean deffinately looks better than it did 6 hrs. ago. MLC and LLC seem to be lining up on vis. sat., though it is being sheared. imagine if shear was really lax, this thing could bomb out rather quickly!

[Ivanhater]

If trough doesn't get it, it will be GOM

With the ridge building back in...yes...Im watching to see how sharp the trough digs in...cant wait!

[WxGuy1]

Another ominous looking run for the Leewards and Puerto Rico ...

Yeah, especially by hr 72. That weak upper-level low off the southeastern US coast looks like it still may separate the Atlantic ridge and the southern US ridge enough to allow Dean to escape northwestward. I guess it matters how far south Dean can stay. If Dean stays south enough to avoid being pulled northwestward and northward by the southerly flow between the ULL and the ULH, I think it could miss that 'escape slot'. Of course, there's no way to know if that'll happen now, but the fast, WSW motion that Dean has been taking the past 24 hours isn't helping.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

78 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Dean is starting to look impressive, with a CDO forming right over the LLC and outflow expanding in most quads but east. I say this is close to 50 knots. This has a chance to strengthen rapidly. We will see,,,

[KFDM Meteorologist]

78 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_078l.gif

[CourierPR]

Are the mountains of Puerto Rico high enough to disrupt Dean's circulation?

[Sanibel]

Big shift south!

Hurricane over Martinique in that run.

[Ivanhater]

Big shift south!

as of now...next few hours of the run are key

[RL3AO]

Are the mountains of Puerto Rico high enough to disrupt Dean's circulation?

Mountains might be high enough, but there aren't enough of them.

[Wx_Warrior]

Not big but one can see a little southern, per last night's run.

[storms in NC]

This is all going to change. I wouldn't take this to the bank yet.

[destruction92]

Why is it that every few hours for the past few days we have just been posting GFS nonsense???(which can't even initialize the correct location and speed of an already DEVELOPED tropical system!)

What about other model runs...like GFDL, NOGAPS, Canadian, and Euro????

We all know how wise it is to depend on just 1 model for guidance!

Sorry for fuming, but I think it is about time we start to see some reliable data.

[Jinkers]

[vacanechaser]

Big shift south!

as of now...next few hours of the run are key

the shift could be in part due to the further south position of the center now



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[x-y-no]

Are the mountains of Puerto Rico high enough to disrupt Dean's circulation?

Mountains might be high enough, but there aren't enough of them.

Yeah, I think that's right.

Hispaniola can tear a storm to shreds, though.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

90 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

[windstorm99]

Not sure but looks to be getting picked up at 90hrs...

[Ivanhater]

Big shift south!

as of now...next few hours of the run are key

the shift could be in part due to the further south position of the center now



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Thats what Im thinking...already a close call for the trough picking it up..well see