Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[wxman57]

As of 1:30pm CDT, the plane still has not found any winds stronger than the winds 270 nautical miles east of the center near 20N/68.9W. In fact, I haven't seen any FL winds of 35 kts or greater within 150nm of the center.

[CrazyC83]

29/1745 UTC 20.4N 73.6W T1.5/2.0 NOEL -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

The position is where I said in the image post above,between Great Inagua Island and the NE tip of Cuba.

The T-numbers are kinda deceptive when Recon is flying. The current mission supports a 40 kt tropical storm at this point.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291845
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 21 20071029
183300 2027N 07340W 9835 00175 0034 +229 +225 160033 034 031 006 03
183330 2029N 07341W 9835 00174 0034 +220 +220 157029 030 038 006 00
183400 2030N 07343W 9834 00172 0031 +213 +213 154032 033 040 008 00
183430 2031N 07344W 9838 00168 0030 +224 +224 151031 031 039 001 00
183500 2033N 07345W 9836 00170 0029 +225 +225 146031 031 039 000 00
183530 2034N 07346W 9835 00168 0028 +226 +226 144031 032 041 000 00
183600 2036N 07347W 9838 00166 0027 +230 +229 138031 031 038 004 00
183630 2037N 07349W 9840 00164 0026 +230 +223 138033 034 042 000 00
183700 2038N 07350W 9836 00167 0026 +232 +222 136034 035 040 001 00
183730 2040N 07351W 9835 00166 0025 +235 +230 135033 034 040 001 00
183800 2041N 07352W 9837 00167 0024 +237 +230 130034 035 038 002 00
183830 2043N 07354W 9836 00166 0024 +235 +228 122035 036 040 004 00
183900 2044N 07355W 9835 00165 0024 +235 +223 121037 038 042 002 00
183930 2046N 07356W 9840 00162 0024 +239 +223 118038 038 042 001 00
184000 2047N 07357W 9833 00169 0026 +235 +226 111038 038 040 005 00
184030 2048N 07359W 9837 00165 0027 +225 +225 103037 038 041 007 00
184100 2050N 07400W 9838 00163 0025 +227 +227 096041 044 047 002 00
184130 2051N 07401W 9836 00165 0026 +227 +227 093039 040 043 005 00
184200 2052N 07402W 9835 00167 0027 +219 +219 090041 042 042 012 00
184230 2054N 07404W 9836 00168 0030 +205 +205 087041 041 043 014 00
$$
;

44 kt FL, 47 kt SFMR, 1002mb pressure

[CrazyC83]

As of 1:30pm CDT, the plane still has not found any winds stronger than the winds 270 nautical miles east of the center near 20N/68.9W.

Nope (although pretty close on the last pass). The current numbers support 40 kt (flight level) or 45 kt (if the SFMR is trusted).

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 291836
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC MON OCT 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NOEL (AL162007) 20071029 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071029 1800 071030 0600 071030 1800 071031 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.5N 73.8W 21.5N 76.2W 22.3N 78.5W 22.5N 80.4W
BAMD 20.5N 73.8W 21.5N 75.3W 22.2N 76.6W 23.0N 77.8W
BAMM 20.5N 73.8W 21.5N 75.6W 22.1N 77.3W 22.7N 78.8W
LBAR 20.5N 73.8W 22.2N 75.0W 24.1N 75.7W 25.6N 75.7W
SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 47KTS 53KTS
DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 47KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071031 1800 071101 1800 071102 1800 071103 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.5N 81.6W 21.4N 80.8W 21.7N 79.5W 21.5N 81.7W
BAMD 24.2N 78.3W 27.3N 76.8W 31.1N 70.6W 36.3N 59.3W
BAMM 23.3N 79.5W 24.6N 78.2W 25.8N 75.0W 27.1N 71.4W
LBAR 27.1N 74.9W 29.7N 71.4W 33.3N 64.2W 38.7N 54.9W
SHIP 55KTS 60KTS 50KTS 33KTS
DSHP 55KTS 60KTS 50KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.5N LONCUR = 73.8W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 72.3W DIRM12 = 340DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 16.6N LONM24 = 71.8W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 175NM RD34SE = 175NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 100NM

Is moving NW at 13 kts.

[Canelaw99]

About the only thing that keeps me paying real close attention is that Noel is about to hit some seriously warm waters.

[CrazyC83]

About the only thing that keeps me paying real close attention is that Noel is about to hit some seriously warm waters.

Yep, which is why it could easily get back to or above its peak intensity (I think it was 55 kt at one point).

[MiamiensisWx]

This is NOT an official forecast.

This system probably won't be a huge issue for south Florida. I agree with wxman57's synopsis about a recurvature over the western Bahamas. We will see increased winds via the pressure gradient, thus inducing some dangerous coastal/offshore surf, but it won't be serious. I think Noel caused the greatest impact over our island friends in PR, the NE Antilles, and Hispaniola. Additionally, Noel will not restrengthen because of "warm waters". There is very high shear (UL divergence) over the Bahamas and FL. The Bahamas should still monitor Noel; they could receive strong winds, widespread precipitation, and large waves. I think FL has been "off the hook", IMO (with the exception of boaters, surfers, and coastal residents).

Shear:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

I hope we don't receive numerous death reports from Haiti and the Dominican Republic!

[fci]

Daniel:
If I recall; you had it dead before ever hitting the Atlantic.
And much further East than it is now.
So, I am a little skeptical of your ops on this one as it has been different than expected thus far; or at least as opposed to what you have been suggesting.

[CrazyC83]

KNHC 291855
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 22 20071029
184300 2055N 07405W 9838 00169 0031 +214 +214 084040 041 043 012 00
184330 2056N 07406W 9836 00171 0033 +219 +219 086041 042 042 012 00
184400 2057N 07407W 9828 00180 0035 +214 +214 089039 040 043 011 00
184430 2059N 07409W 9836 00174 0035 +212 +212 086037 039 040 013 00
184500 2100N 07410W 9837 00172 0035 +221 +221 086038 042 038 006 00
184530 2101N 07411W 9835 00177 0036 +226 +225 087042 044 040 006 03
184600 2102N 07413W 9835 00178 0037 +225 +225 086037 041 039 009 03
184630 2102N 07415W 9833 00178 0038 +208 +208 080040 046 053 017 00
184700 2103N 07417W 9833 00179 0040 +204 +204 088041 044 048 015 00
184730 2103N 07419W 9847 00167 0037 +234 +234 063038 041 041 013 00
184800 2104N 07421W 9833 00179 0037 +235 +235 058037 038 040 005 00
184830 2104N 07423W 9836 00175 0038 +235 +232 060037 039 038 004 00
184900 2105N 07424W 9832 00181 0039 +233 +231 060038 039 036 004 00
184930 2105N 07426W 9833 00181 0040 +237 +229 059039 041 039 000 00
185000 2106N 07428W 9839 00176 0041 +238 +227 060040 041 039 001 00
185030 2106N 07430W 9836 00180 0042 +240 +vff6FFV
185100 2107N 07431W 9841 00177 0043 +240 +231 057036 038 035 004 00
185130 2107N 07433W 9833 00185 0043 +240 +230 056037 039 037 001 00
185200 2108N 07435W 9837 00181 0044 +241 +227 057036 038 035 000 00
185230 2108N 07437W 9837 00183 0046 +239 +229 056036 038 035 001 00
$$
;

46 kt FL, 53 kt SFMR

[wxman57]

New report of 46kts FL, 53kts SFMR about 45 miles NW of the center in a newly-developed squall just west of Great Inagua Island. Still looks poorly-organized.

[CrazyC83]

New report of 46kts FL, 53kts SFMR about 45 miles NW of the center in a newly-developed squall just west of Great Inagua Island. Still looks poorly-organized.

Combining those numbers (41 vs. 53), I'd say 45 kt is the current intensity, with a 1002mb pressure.

[NcentralFlaguy]

everyone has been off

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291905
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 23 20071029
185300 2109N 07439W 9839 00182 0047 +236 +229 049035 037 035 001 00
185330 2109N 07440W 9836 00186 0048 +230 +230 049034 035 036 001 00
185400 2110N 07442W 9836 00186 0049 +235 +227 047034 034 036 000 00
185430 2110N 07444W 9833 00188 0049 +236 +224 045034 035 034 001 00
185500 2111N 07445W 9838 00186 0051 +239 +221 047034 035 037 000 00
185530 2111N 07447W 9835 00190 0051 +239 +223 046034 035 999 999 03
185600 2110N 07448W 9835 00191 0051 +240 +224 041031 032 999 999 03
185630 2109N 07447W 9839 00185 0050 +240 +223 039029 030 034 000 03
185700 2108N 07445W 9836 00188 0049 +240 +222 040030 032 035 000 00
185730 2108N 07444W 9833 00188 0048 +238 +226 039030 031 036 000 00
185800 2108N 07444W 9833 00188 0047 +237 +228 044031 033 034 002 00
185830 2107N 07441W 9836 00187 0046 +239 +226 048033 035 038 000 00
185900 2106N 07440W 9833 00186 0045 +240 +228 048030 030 035 002 00
185930 2106N 07438W 9836 00183 0044 +240 +231 048031 032 034 001 00
190000 2105N 07437W 9842 00177 0043 +241 +231 053032 034 035 000 00
190030 2105N 07436W 9835 00183 0042 +240 +231 057032 032 037 000 00
190100 2104N 07434W 9839 00177 0040 +241 +226 056034 036 037 003 00
190130 2103N 07433W 9837 00179 0039 +240 +226 055035 036 041 000 00
190200 2103N 07431W 9836 00178 0039 +239 +227 056034 035 038 000 00
190230 2103N 07430W 9835 00180 0038 +236 +232 054032 033 036 004 00
$$
;

[Bgator]

What is the shear like in the spot it is in? Should we expect some restrengthening?

[cycloneye]

No discussion about where the center is and the track that is moving.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like a WNW movement to me. How long this continues will be very important. Noel is also re-orginizing rather quickly for just coming out of the mountains.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291915
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 24 20071029
190300 2102N 07429W 9836 00180 0041 +228 +228 064029 031 038 013 00
190330 2102N 07427W 9847 00167 0040 +195 +195 091026 029 051 021 00
190400 2101N 07426W 9793 00213 0039 +206 +206 083034 036 043 019 03
190430 2101N 07425W 9550 00436 0039 +189 +189 078033 035 044 014 03
190500 2101N 07423W 9282 00680 0038 +197 +197 081037 038 999 999 03
190530 2100N 07422W 9120 00841 0045 +192 +192 080035 036 039 005 00
190600 2100N 07421W 9189 00776 0049 +184 +184 089038 041 040 005 00
190630 2100N 07419W 9242 00724 0043 +198 +194 095038 040 042 000 00
190700 2059N 07418W 9243 00721 0042 +194 +194 092039 040 040 002 00
190730 2059N 07417W 9247 00715 0042 +193 +193 090039 041 040 002 00
190800 2059N 07415W 9248 00715 0042 +194 +194 093040 040 041 004 00
190830 2058N 07414W 9247 00716 0041 +190 +190 094040 041 041 007 00
190900 2058N 07413W 9249 00714 0041 +190 +190 097041 041 043 010 00
190930 2057N 07412W 9248 00714 0042 +187 +187 103040 040 043 011 00
191000 2057N 07410W 9246 00716 0042 +185 +185 111038 039 048 007 00
191030 2057N 07409W 9244 00716 0043 +180 +180 106035 036 043 011 00
191100 2056N 07408W 9250 00710 0042 +185 +185 111036 037 041 011 00
191130 2056N 07406W 9250 00712 0042 +182 +182 106037 041 042 011 03
191200 2055N 07405W 9259 00704 0039 +192 +192 112037 041 041 011 00
191230 2055N 07404W 9247 00713 0040 +192 +192 115036 037 047 004 00
$$
;

Now flying at about 700 ft.

[caneman]

:uarrow: everyone has been off

I wouldn't say everyone. I, along with a few others stated several times it could be a threat to Florida albeit not much of one while some were hugging the GFDL and sounding the all clear for Florida.

[drezee]

RADAR CENTER FIX 20.5N 074.3W, POOR RADAR PRESENTATION, NAV ACCURACY 10NM

WOW...that is West