TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[alan1961]

does anyone think the itcz could be having a pull on this..it seems to be moving a little south west.

[Extremecane]

The reason the GFDL moves it west is because it keeps it a very weak system, the HWRF is more north because it has a stronger system

[wxmann_91]

wxmann

only the GFS has those hostile conditions

Thanks for the info. UKMET is lighter with the shear, stronger with the system. Lots of uncertainty.

[Recurve]

Yes. I was wondering if the trades were heading it a bit south.

[knotimpaired]

I think it wise for all of us that live in the islands to give ourselves a break and stop worrying.

We have days before this thing makes up his mind. When Derek and Luis tell us to worry, then we worry. IMO, not before.

Sleep tight all.

[Derek Ortt]

I can see a track similar to the GFDL as a stronger system than it is indicating

I think the models are too weak with the ridge because they are all developing the system behind our depression and moving it to the north, weakening the ridge. That system may have SAL issues and I am not forseeing its development as soona s the models are insisting

[jacindc]

Interesting that the AP wire just moved a story about the two storms, calling TD #8 "Ingrid" throughout, as if it's been upgraded. It was written by Ken Kaye of the Sun-Sentinel.

(I can't link to it, I'm reading it on an internal site.)

First two grafs:

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Two tropical systems sprang up Wednesday, including Tropical Storm Ingrid in the central Atlantic and Tropical Storm Humberto, which immediately took aim at the Texas Gulf coast.

Of greater interest to Florida, Ingrid formed about 2,500 miles southeast of Miami. Although rather disorganized on Wednesday evening, it was forecast to intensify to just shy of hurricane strength within the next five days, the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County said.

[aguaviva]

water vapor loop
By the way, do I see a WSW wobble, or is it just one of those tricks of loop imagery?
(oh my, now I've become a wobble-watcher, )

I sure hope it is not, but it sure looks like one. And she is growing and becoming more concentrated in that center, may be a reformation?

[aguaviva]

could we please STOP SAYING THAT IF IT MISSES THE MAINLAND THAT IT IS A FISH


Have we already forgotten that there are heavily populated islands in its way. And this could be a significant strike on the USA in 5 days at the VI and PR. There is also the question of Canada. maybe Juan was a fish as well

rant off and I'll try not to do it again, but those posts are frustrating to me

Thank you Derek

Thank you Derek

[aguaviva]

I can see a track similar to the GFDL as a stronger system than it is indicating

I think the models are too weak with the ridge because they are all developing the system behind our depression and moving it to the north, weakening the ridge. That system may have SAL issues and I am not forseeing its development as soona s the models are insisting

I did not want that to be the answer, bad news for us if Derek is right, how bad depends on how much stronger...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is clear to me that the LLC is on the northeast side of the convection. But I would put good money on there being 35+ knot winds in that convection. Sab 2.5, Cimiss 2.5t each.

[fci]

Interesting that the AP wire just moved a story about the two storms, calling TD #8 "Ingrid" throughout, as if it's been upgraded. It was written by Ken Kaye of the Sun-Sentinel.

(I can't link to it, I'm reading it on an internal site.)

First two grafs:

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Two tropical systems sprang up Wednesday, including Tropical Storm Ingrid in the central Atlantic and Tropical Storm Humberto, which immediately took aim at the Texas Gulf coast.

Of greater interest to Florida, Ingrid formed about 2,500 miles southeast of Miami. Although rather disorganized on Wednesday evening, it was forecast to intensify to just shy of hurricane strength within the next five days, the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County said.

Maybe a "pay service" has already named TD #8?
It named a TD a couple of weeks ago about 6 hours earlier, if I recall.

[Zardoz]

This is more than a little WSW jog. TD8 has basically turned left:

Floater Two

[Derek Ortt]

the TD appears to have been sheared very severely this evening with a major decoupling of the LLC and the MLC. LLC is on the forecast track, but the sat fix from SSD is 60NM to the south. Not good for short term intensification

[cycloneye]

12/2345 UTC 12.4N 46.4W T2.5/2.5 08L -- Atlantic Ocean


This is what Derek was referring to.

[tolakram]

[JTD]

the TD appears to have been sheared very severely this evening with a major decoupling of the LLC and the MLC. LLC is on the forecast track, but the sat fix from SSD is 60NM to the south. Not good for short term intensification

Isn't a decoupling devastating for development all together? I remember a sheared storm last year that decoupled and didn't reform at all. I think it was Chris.

[chris_fit]

the TD appears to have been sheared very severely this evening with a major decoupling of the LLC and the MLC. LLC is on the forecast track, but the sat fix from SSD is 60NM to the south. Not good for short term intensification

Isn't a decoupling devastating for development all together? I remember a sheared storm last year that decoupled and didn't reform at all. I think it was Chris.

Ernesto comes to mind as well

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***NOT an official forecast***

over the next 5 days this may go with the gfdl
with the models tending to underestimate the ridge
so far this year..and it will, moving over
those warmer waters, become probably
significantly stronger. I would
not be surprised to see at least
category 2 from this in the caribbean
and if it does go through the caribbean
heat content continues to be explosive and
felix type deepening is likely.

Now, if there is a trough digging into
the Gulf of Mexico...it goes North from
the caribbean.

I see no reason why this shouldn't be
at least a category 3 (being VERY conservative) if it goes through
the caribbean.

[Derek Ortt]

I do beleive this is a temporary event though. Plus, this has beend ecoupled for most of its existence


Chris also had some of the driest air I have ever seen in a TC environment... that is not the case here so convection should quickly refire around the LLC