Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[destruction92]

I was just saying that if the NHC 5 PM forecast is right and Noel stays a tropical storm, then I would not be overly worried. I am basically getting info. from the NHC discussion...I never said that it wouldn't change.

I am not getting new information or making it up...I am reading from the NHC site.

[NcentralFlaguy]

I busted at least 5 times on this one thats for sure!

[MiamiensisWx]

Even if it misses southern FL, the Bahamas will receive the full force of Noel. I would prepare for a Category 1 hurricane per the usual "prepare for a higher category" mantra. Additionally, the Bahamas will be impacted before any possible interaction with Florida. Boats and small craft should be secured, as waves could be quite high in the area and over the W Atlantic waters. We're moving some potted flora into our home tonight. By the way, I think destruction92 should realize we could receive some relatively strong winds (~40 to +58 mph per NWS Miami) even if Noel remains a tropical storm well offshore - look at the previously posted High Wind Watch from the NWS Miami office. The strong gradient may enhance winds over SE Florida. It won't be extremely serious, but it should be considered.

[boca]

I wonder if the track will shift further west to include S FL in a tropical storm watch or warning.

[NcentralFlaguy]

I was just saying that if the NHC 5 PM forecast is right and Noel stays a tropical storm, then I would not be overly worried. I am basically getting info. from the NHC discussion...I never said that it wouldn't change.

I am not getting new information or making it up...I am reading from the NHC site.

well there isnt much of a difference between a cat 1 hurricane or a strong tropical storm ,difference may be 4mph or 9 mph still capable of doing damage and causing lengthy power outages.

[Rainband]

One of our locals just said that new model data will be in soon and that Noel could go a bit father west than even forecast now. He said that the more disorganized noel stays the further west he will go. Also he said that the center is hard to find and sometimes there are multiple centers and reforming ones in these disorganized systems. He told us to check back in case this becomes something that could affect us. Right now he said all we will have is breezy conditions unless noels track changes

[MusicCityMan]

Miami, I wonder the same thing.. The track seems to have it getting very close to the coastline.. The rain wouldn't be a bad thing for anybody.. but the winds could cause some damage..

[destruction92]

I wonder if the track will shift further west to include S FL in a tropical storm watch or warning.

With the current track, I would anticipate a tropical storm watch. However, watches and warnings are made 24 hours in advance. Noel is not expected to be near SoFla until Wednesday evening so expect any advisories, if any at all, to be issued tomorrow.

[Aquawind]

Come to papa..

Cute Aqua. I am moving to NY at the end of November! Noel will be my last storm.

Lucky you..ahh then again..snow n ice..yuck!

Hopefully Noel will bring us an early Christmas present of 12" flooding rains. With a name like that I am singing Christmas songs over here. I'ts all just a dream at this point..no landfall for Florida forecast yet and were on the opposite coast. Sheesh the winds are already howling outside.

Common Noel your invited for some Eggnog over at my place.

[MusicCityMan]

Probably watches or warnings from the Keys to about West Palm when and if they go up?

[MiamiensisWx]

It looks like the structure is improving per Cuban radar.

Imagen del Radar at Holguin, Cuba

[Bgator]

Max Mayfield just said on channel 10 that he has been on the phone with the NHC, and they have been talking about watches for SFLA. He also did mention though, if this gets stronger it will take a more easterly path.

[destruction92]

Come to papa..

Cute Aqua. I am moving to NY at the end of November! Noel will be my last storm.

Lucky you..ahh then again..snow n ice..yuck!

Hopefully Noel will bring us an early Christmas present of 12" flooding rains. With a name like that I am singing Christmas songs over here. I'ts all just a dream at this point..no landfall for Florida forecast yet and were on the opposite coast. Sheesh the winds are already howling outside.

Common Noel your invited for some Eggnog over at my place.

Since the worst of the weather is east of Noel, I don't think much of Florida will get any rain from Noel except areas next to the east coast.

Kind of off topic, but I thought I would say it, I like that word "Aquawind"....sounds really cool

[boca]

My reasoning for the track being even further west than it is now is that trough in the GOM is moving slowly west. Noel should do the same thing.If the trough was moving NE than I would expect Noel to recurve sooner.

[ExBailbonds]

I wonder if the track will shift further west to include S FL in a tropical storm watch or warning.

With the current track, I would anticipate a tropical storm watch. However, watches and warnings are made 24 hours in advance. Noel is not expected to be near SoFla until Wednesday evening so expect any advisories, if any at all, to be issued tomorrow.

Hello!!!!! Its 36 hours for watches and warnings.

Correction as pointed out below 36hrs for watches 24 for warnings.

[destruction92]

Max Mayfield just said on channel 10 that he has been on the phone with the NHC, and they have been talking about watches for SFLA. He also did mention though, if this gets stronger it will take a more easterly path.

Wow, that seems like some good news. If the South Florida threat indeed materializes, then a weaker system would affect the area. If Noel gets much stronger, then South Florida would stay away from the brunt of damaging weather...that's a win-win situation.

[destruction92]

I wonder if the track will shift further west to include S FL in a tropical storm watch or warning.

With the current track, I would anticipate a tropical storm watch. However, watches and warnings are made 24 hours in advance. Noel is not expected to be near SoFla until Wednesday evening so expect any advisories, if any at all, to be issued tomorrow.

Hello!!!!! Its 36 hours for watches and warnings.

Oops. Regardless, still at least 48 hours until Wednesday evening. No need for watches just yet.

[Canelaw99]

Per the glossary section of the NHC site:

"Tropical Storm Warning:
A warning that sustained winds within the range of 34 to 63 kt (39 to 73 mph or 63 to 118 km/hr) associated with a tropical cyclone are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours or less.


Tropical Storm Watch:
An announcement for specific coastal areas that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours."

Warnings are 24 hrs, watches are 36....

[Typhoon_Willie]

In my humble opinion there is still a chance that this system will become a cat one before reaching the Northern Bahamas. In any case it should be watched.

[Aquawind]

Since the worst of the weather is east of Noel, I don't think much of Florida will get any rain from Noel except areas next to the east coast.

Kind of off topic, but I thought I would say it, I like that word "Aquawind"....sounds really cool

Agreed.. Heavy rains are a dream at this point. But we all gotta dream!