INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[bwhorton2007]

maybe so but i actually look for that invest to be cancelled at this point because of a strong ull that is dominating the entire region.

[ronjon]

It's been a long time since I've seen this amount of heavy convection over the SW Atlantic and caribbean sea. It would cover an area the size of the east half of the US.

[srainhoutx]

I have to agree Jason. Will note that ULL has been stationary near western tip of Cuba for some time today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[CrazyC83]

Could this really be a case of the remnants of Karen merging?

[Emmett_Brown]

I have a slightly different take on this... While it is true that there is an ULL just to the W of the disturbance, making any GOM low that forms sheared, it appears that quite a nice ridge will be building over the W Atlantic near the Bahamas by this time tomorrow night. I would think this is actually somewhat favorable for something to spin up in the Bahamas tomorrow as the high builds overhead:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_36.gif

[bwhorton2007]

for the last time its all got to do with the ull nothing tropical!

[caneman]

maybe so but i actually look for that invest to be cancelled at this point because of a strong ull that is dominating the entire region.

Not likely it will be cancelled. Ull is moving out slowly but surely . Something will pop. There is too much heat and energy there.

[bwhorton2007]

not gonna argue canman and we shall see!

[ROCK]

for the last time its all got to do with the ull nothing tropical!

well thats about 4 posts now so I think we understand your point.

The reality of it is the ULL is shearing the convection associated with a 1009 low connected to a trof of low pressure that stretches into the carib, over Cuba.
Remember the two this is not supposed to do anything until the next day or two. Plenty of time to watch it go tropical....

[bwhorton2007]

yes rock it could and im not arguing with anyone but im not buying it at the moment.

[Blown Away]

Dr. Lyons from TWC just said the low was near the Keys and was moving W, he said there is alot of dry air in the Gulf and maybe a Subtropical system will form or dissipation due to the dry air. He seemed alot more interested in the weak low down in the SW Caribbean that was forecast to move into the Gulf in a few days.

[ROCK]

Dr. Lyons from TWC just said the low was near the Keys and was moving W, he said there is alot of dry air in the Gulf and maybe a Subtropical system will form or dissipation due to the dry air. He seemed alot more interested in the weak low down in the SW Caribbean that was forecast to move into the Gulf in a few days.

Yep, Maybe the NAM and CMC were not doing drugs today..... We shall see...judging by the WV loop of the GOM the dry air does not seem as dry as earlier today.....

[cycloneye]

020104
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0104 UTC TUE OCT 2 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20071002 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071002 0000 071002 1200 071003 0000 071003 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.1N 79.0W 25.9N 80.9W 27.1N 82.4W 28.8N 84.1W
BAMD 25.1N 79.0W 26.9N 80.9W 28.7N 83.2W 30.2N 85.3W
BAMM 25.1N 79.0W 26.1N 81.1W 27.3N 83.4W 28.5N 85.7W
LBAR 25.1N 79.0W 26.0N 80.3W 27.3N 81.3W 28.8N 82.2W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 34KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071004 0000 071005 0000 071006 0000 071007 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.4N 85.3W 33.7N 87.6W 38.1N 88.0W 43.6N 84.9W
BAMD 31.6N 86.5W 34.5N 85.3W 34.2N 82.7W 33.6N 84.4W
BAMM 29.7N 87.5W 31.8N 90.2W 35.4N 93.2W 42.0N 95.3W
LBAR 30.2N 82.6W 32.7N 82.2W 33.8N 82.0W 34.2N 84.8W
SHIP 48KTS 45KTS 40KTS 31KTS
DSHP 42KTS 30KTS 27KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.1N LONCUR = 79.0W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 77.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 24.5N LONM24 = 76.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[bwhorton2007]

yeah i noticed that too dry air doesn't glow like that.

[wxman57]

Still just a frontal boundary out there. Moderate NE winds in the cool air behind the front. No low center. I'm having deja-vu all over again. This is TD 10 but with more shear and more cool dry air for it to fight. Euro and NOGAPS say Texas (they were wrong with 10), other models say LA and east. I'll go with the "other models" and say a very weak, disorganized, sheared low will move inland between mid LA coast and FL panhandle by Thursday. It'll be producing less wind than the cool air behind the front is now. Not much chance of TS or STS development. Just a little rain for the mid Gulf coast. I see nothing that indicates otherwise.

I suggest looking elsewhere for the next TC, this isn't it.

[bwhorton2007]

thank you wxman57! there is nothing here as i said.Except for a ull.

[wxman57]

Dr. Lyons from TWC just said the low was near the Keys and was moving W, he said there is alot of dry air in the Gulf and maybe a Subtropical system will form or dissipation due to the dry air. He seemed alot more interested in the weak low down in the SW Caribbean that was forecast to move into the Gulf in a few days.

Yep, Maybe the NAM and CMC were not doing drugs today..... We shall see...judging by the WV loop of the GOM the dry air does not seem as dry as earlier today.....

No, the CMC is definitely on drugs. If you'll notice, the Canadian model develops most upper-level lows into TCs. There are two upper low centers in the Gulf predicted, thus, 2 TCs. Just garbage. Never use the Canadian or NAM for tropics.

[fci]

thank you wxman57! there is nothing here as i said.Except for a ull.

Well I for one an grateful for a couple of things:

- Great rainfall here is making my pool overflow and grass get greener.
- MAYBE Lake O will get some of this wonderful rain
- bwhorton has vowed he will not have to tell us again that this is nothing but a ull.

Don't really care what it is, just let it rain.

[bwhorton2007]

fci and if im wrong ill gladly eat my crow.but i doubt i am as this is a similiar set up to
what happened over north florida a few weeks ago.

[tailgater]

thank you wxman57! there is nothing here as i said.Except for a ull.

Will this really be the last time you say that