Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX04 KWBC 292335
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM NOEL      16L

INITIAL TIME  18Z OCT 29

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            20.4             73.9           325./13.0
   6            20.9             74.7           306./ 8.9
  12            21.5             75.5           307./ 9.3
  18            22.1             76.6           297./11.5
  24            22.6             77.2           306./ 8.2
  30            23.2             77.7           324./ 7.7
  36            23.8             78.0           335./ 5.9
  42            24.2             78.0           358./ 5.0
  48            24.9             77.6            32./ 7.2
  54            25.8             77.0            32./10.6
  60            26.6             76.6            29./ 9.0
  66            27.7             76.0            29./11.8
  72            28.7             75.0            44./13.6
  78            29.7             73.7            50./14.9
  84            30.8             72.1            57./17.5
  90            32.4             70.1            51./23.3
  96            34.2             67.9            50./25.6
 102            36.6             65.6            45./30.3
 108            39.4             64.2            27./30.9
 114            41.8             63.3            19./24.6
 120            43.5             61.4            48./22.4
 126            46.2             58.5            47./33.5


18z GFDL goes more west than the 12z run,78w vs 76w at the 12z run.

[jlauderdal]

The NHC track is W of all the major models. It will interesting to see the 18z models.

No its not. The NHC track is: "THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY."

I know this does not include all:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

thats right, you are better off reading the 5 pm discussion at this point than those old runs. Alot has changed since this morning, most importnatly the forward speed of the system and reformation of the center, etc. Its a very interesting storm, not straight forward at all and alot of weather upstream to affect the system.

[Evil Jeremy]

Latest GFDL should come within the hour.

GFDL now out, again, more west than before.

[fci]

Also comes closest to South Florida further South
NHC had it closest at about 25.8 and 79 while the 18 GFDL has it at 23.8/24.2 and 78 when it make the turn.

[destruction92]

Another thing to watch is the 50-degree dew points spilling south across Florida now behind the front. This cool, dry air will spill off the coast of Florida ahead of Noel, probably killing off convection on the western side of the storm as it approaches (not that there's much convection west of the center now). So you'll probably be facing a "half storm" with gusty winds on the west primarily due to the pressure gradient west of the front in combination with the low pressure of Noel to the east.

Yeah, I noticed that. Fall is coming to Florida(It's been here for 5 days and it's GREAT, we're headed into the 30's tonight)! I don't really think this will be a big deal at all.

No need for sarcasm..If you read the post,he says the dew points will drop BEHIND the front,not before it gets here..I'd bet that Mr X-57, who has studied weather,is correct...You can have your viewpoint,but your post was uncalled for.

One thing is for sure...No one, even pro-mets, are immune to making a mistake here and there....I don't see the dew points dropping into the 50's anytime soon in SoFla. That is a bit of exaggeration in my opinion.

Look at this animated 3 day loop from United Surface Analysis site...it shows a stalled out front over Florida that does not make it past central Florida. http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/UA_C ... _Day.shtml


Furthermore, I don't see any so called "strong" cold fronts making it through south Florida in the 10 day forecast from the Weather Channel... http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/U ... undeclared

Highs in the mid 80's and lows in the low 70's....hmmmmm?

[destruction92]

http://www.miamiherald.com/574/story/288223.html

More good news, maybe: The stronger and better organized Noel becomes before it approaches Florida, the more likely it is to veer wide right, forecasters said.

''The possibility of a hurricane making landfall [in South Florida] is very, very minimal at this point,'' Roberts said.

Roberts is a specialist at the National Hurricane Center.

Is there any way to know when the article was posted on line?...Things have changed quite a bit since this morning

I bet that statement was made this morning or maybe even yesterday...this was in the newspaper right?
Furthermore, while it may be true that a deeper system is influenced more easily by approaching troughs, I think Noel's faster than expected speed of 15mph will counteract any eastward/poleward movement tendencies it may have before getting close to Florida.

[fci]

Dew points at/above/around 69 from roughly Orlando south
(except Miami Beach which reports a dew point of 36) Whoops!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ronjon]

Here is a nice loop from the shortwave IR - you can clearly make out the circulation center. It's already moving west of the first NHC tracking point - sure looks like a true W-NW movement (say 290-300 degrees) as its basically paralleling the Cuban coast -very similar to the GFS track as of now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[MiamiensisWx]

This is NOT an official forecast.

Personally, it looks like the LLC is situated near 21.5N and 74.5W. That position is NW of the NHC's initial position. Additionally, I see a steady NW motion per this loop. Obviously, this could easily change, but I'm just posting my personal observations. We need to observe the next 24 hours in order to discern any trends. If the LLC relocates further north or starts to move further NNW as Noel strengthens, it would indicate a lower risk to SE Florida. If the current motion continues, it may indicate a higher risk to SE Florida. I'm not stating, "Option X is more likely than Option B", but I'm making a synopsis.

Loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Radar:

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif

Select latitude and longitude coordinates and the tropical forecast positions.

By the way, I have an inquisitive mind: destruction92, you have really altered your opinion!!! Earlier, you said Noel would probably pass east of Florida (if it strengthened) or arrive as a weaker system.

[NcentralFlaguy]

I am starting to wonder about the system moving completely through the southern part of the peninsula into the SE gulf than turning N to NE . Im not sure its likely ..but hey, its not outside the realm of possibility at the moment.

[Aquawind]

I am starting to wonder about the system moving completely through the southern part of the peninsula into the SE gulf than turning N to NE . Im not sure its likely ..but hey, its not outside the realm of possibility at the moment.

Yep, This is weather.. funny things do happen.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS



18z GFS has a very close call for South Florida

[destruction92]

I am starting to wonder about the system moving completely through the southern part of the peninsula into the SE gulf than turning N to NE . Im not sure its likely ..but hey, its not outside the realm of possibility at the moment.

And Noel striking Boston as a category 1 is also not out of the realm of possibility.
Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Although Floridians should monitor the progress of Noel, it doesn't look to be much more of an annoyance....no imminent danger as of now to life and property...just a Halloween Trick.

From what I have been hearing, according to one pro-met in South Florida (Don Noe), "do not expect anything more than just a little rain and wind for Wednesday night. Nothing major here to deal with."

[flwxwatcher]

Tidbit from THE 8PM advisory on Noel from TPC

NOEL NEAR EASTERN CUBA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2357.shtml

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 292357
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...NOEL NEAR EASTERN CUBA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER TO GONAIVES.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT 205
MILES...335 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND AND ABOUT
340 MILES...550 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD MOVE
BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO
RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N...74.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 292357
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...NOEL NEAR EASTERN CUBA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER TO GONAIVES.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT 205
MILES...335 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND AND ABOUT
340 MILES...550 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD MOVE
BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO
RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N...74.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[destruction92]

18z GFS



18z GFS has a very close call for South Florida

This looks further east than the 12z, does it not?
It looks like a weak system staying off the coast of Florida.
More of a threat to the Bahamas.
Not a close call at all.

The CMC is more of a close call, but it sucks at forecasting.

[fci]

I am starting to wonder about the system moving completely through the southern part of the peninsula into the SE gulf than turning N to NE . Im not sure its likely ..but hey, its not outside the realm of possibility at the moment.

If we are looking for rain down here and not much wind; your scenario is best for South Florida as much of it would be on the "wet" side of Noel.
Plus according to what was posted from Max Mayfield's comments that would mean it did not strengthen much either.

The "win-win" scenario.

[AtlanticWind]

the 18z gfdl takes the storm a little further west than the 12z run while making it at cat 2.

[Aquawind]

Ohh man.. It's almost time to say.. I want my mommie.