Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[destruction92]

the 18z gfdl takes the storm a little further west than the 12z run while making it at cat 2.

Graphics please? It's probably a category 2 near Bermuda, right?
And it probably has Noel staying at least a 100 miles off of the Florida coast....right???

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Why does it appear the front is backing up?

I'm looking at jet stream maps, upper level shear and mid level shear. Isn't it possible that shear could stay low until Noel makes it near South Florida?

[NcentralFlaguy]

I am starting to wonder about the system moving completely through the southern part of the peninsula into the SE gulf than turning N to NE . Im not sure its likely ..but hey, its not outside the realm of possibility at the moment.

lol..


And Noel striking Boston as a category 1 is also not out of the realm of possibility.
Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Although Floridians should monitor the progress of Noel, it doesn't look to be much more of an annoyance....no imminent danger as of now to life and property...just a Halloween Trick.

From what I have been hearing, according to one pro-met in South Florida (Don Noe), "do not expect anything more than just a little rain and wind for Wednesday night. Nothing major here to deal with."

lol...I would tend to think that a weak system moving 100 miles or so more to the west than is forecast is a little more plausible than a cat 1 hitting Boston..but hey i guess you never know

[Evil Jeremy]

The GFS is not the best at intensity, but it has a great track record.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Destruction92 what is you definition of a close call for So. Fla. then?
I must repsectfully disagree with the statements...

More of a threat to the Bahamas.
Not a close call at all.

[destruction92]

Destruction92 what is you definition of a close call for So. Fla. then?
I must repsectfully disagree with the statements...

More of a threat to the Bahamas.
Not a close call at all.

Sorry, it is a close call. But, more of a threat to the Bahamas IMO.
Still looks like the nasty weather is a good 100 miles offshore from Florida.

[Blown Away]

Best Noel's looked since being S of Haiti.

[Blown Away]

Are there any reliable models that take Noel into SFL??

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Destruction92 I must say it is noble/nice of you to wish
noel away from florida

good intentions

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tropical Storm Force winds extending out 200 miles...wow
that means much of the South FL peninsula could experience
tropical storm force winds...

[destruction92]

Are there any reliable models that take Noel into SFL??

From Jeff Master's blog (4:45 PM today)... "The ECMWF model forecasts that Noel will be a very shallow and weak tropical storm which will not recurve until it reaches South Florida. The HWRF is similar, forecasting a 45 mph tropical storm that will recurve about 50-100 miles off the coast of Miami."

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL Intensity



18z GFDL has it as a hurricane at 78w.

[Typhoon_Willie]

And I do agree with Tampa Bay on that sentiment but remember that this storm is not that small and if the center does come within 100 miles of the coastline then we will be getting the lion share of the tropical storm (and who knows cat one) winds of this system...

[Aquawind]

Chances are it will be a lopsided system with little more than wind for South Florida.. Check in tomorrow..things do change..

[TheShrimper]

Reliable model??????= oxymoron

[NcentralFlaguy]

Reliable model??????= oxymoron

rofl

[Blown Away]

That's a close call, for sure. Luis what reliable models have a SFL landfall, if any?

[destruction92]

Good news from Jeff Master's blog: "Passage over the mountainous terrain of Haiti has severely disrupted Noel, and it will likely not start intensifying significantly until Tuesday afternoon. Wind shear is about 10-20 knots, and is expected to remain in that range over the next three days. This will allow some strengthening of Noel if its center can avoid moving over Cuba. I give Noel a 30% chance of reaching hurricane strength. After three days, wind shear is expected to increase above 20 knots, and Noel should weaken.

In summary, if Noel does make it all the way to South Florida, it will probably be as a weak tropical storm. If Noel strengthens significantly, it is likely to recurve sooner."

This is from 4:47 PM this afternoon. I am guessing that nothing new has occurred thinking-wise among pro-mets since 4:47 PM.

No rain from Noel for Florida according to Wxman.

I know that I have been reporting mostly good news, because so far, the pro-mets and reliable forecast models (like GFDL) are making Noel turn out to sea soon enough before Florida's coast feels much, if any damage, other than beach erosion.

If there is any bad news, please inform me, because I see mostly good news as of now. Maybe that will change....doubt it though.

[Blown Away]

Are there any reliable models that take Noel into SFL??

From Jeff Master's blog (4:45 PM today)... "The ECMWF model forecasts that Noel will be a very shallow and weak tropical storm which will not recurve until it reaches South Florida. The HWRF is similar, forecasting a 45 mph tropical storm that will recurve about 50-100 miles off the coast of Miami."

The current NHC track is @100 miles off SFL!

[flwxwatcher]

Tropical Storm Force winds extending out 200 miles...wow
that means much of the South FL peninsula could experience
tropical storm force winds...

They extend 200 Miles but not 200 miles to the west.