Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Aquawind]

Bad news..no rain for South Florida..

[destruction92]

Are there any reliable models that take Noel into SFL??

From Jeff Master's blog (4:45 PM today)... "The ECMWF model forecasts that Noel will be a very shallow and weak tropical storm which will not recurve until it reaches South Florida. The HWRF is similar, forecasting a 45 mph tropical storm that will recurve about 50-100 miles off the coast of Miami."

The current NHC track is @100 miles off SFL!

Did the 8PM track shift more to the west or is it the same as the 5PM track?

[Evil Jeremy]

Good news from Jeff Master's blog: "Passage over the mountainous terrain of Haiti has severely disrupted Noel, and it will likely not start intensifying significantly until Tuesday afternoon. Wind shear is about 10-20 knots, and is expected to remain in that range over the next three days. This will allow some strengthening of Noel if its center can avoid moving over Cuba. I give Noel a 30% chance of reaching hurricane strength. After three days, wind shear is expected to increase above 20 knots, and Noel should weaken.

In summary, if Noel does make it all the way to South Florida, it will probably be as a weak tropical storm. If Noel strengthens significantly, it is likely to recurve sooner."

This is from 4:47 PM this afternoon. I am guessing that nothing new has occurred thinking-wise among pro-mets since 4:47 PM.

No rain from Noel for Florida according to Wxman.

I know that I have been reporting mostly good news, because so far, the pro-mets and reliable forecast models (like GFDL) are making Noel turn out to sea soon enough before Florida's coast feels much, if any damage, other than beach erosion.

If there is any bad news, please inform me, because I see mostly good news as of now. Maybe that will change....doubt it though.

The bad news is that each model run keeps moving west. The latest GFDL moved 2 degrees west, and it doesnt seem that ehy are going to stop moving west, especially since Noel is still moving more west than north.

[Evil Jeremy]

Did the 8PM track shift more to the west or is it the same as the 5PM track?

There is no 8PM track. Only 1 track every 6 hours.

[wzrgirl1]

the closest the nhc has it now is in 48 hours at 25.8 and 79.0 that is only about 60 miles off the coast as a decent tropical storm

[NcentralFlaguy]

Hmmm I wonder. Where is the front thats supposed to turn this system? I thought I knew earlier today but Im thinking there must be something closer than the trough coming down from the midwest? right? can someone please illustrate a map or something for us, because I see nothing but zonal flow. and I know that this question is on alot of our minds. all I see is that stationary front across North Florida thats been there for the last two months it seems.

[NcentralFlaguy]

Did the 8PM track shift more to the west or is it the same as the 5PM track?

There is no 8PM track. Only 1 track every 6 hours.

destruction is correct they have been shifting the track around on the intermediate advisories today i believe.

[destruction92]

Hmmm I wonder. Where is the front thats supposed to turn this system? I thought I knew earlier today but Im thinking there must be something closer than the trough coming down from the midwest? right? can someone please illustrate a map or something for us, because I see nothing but zonal flow. and I know that this question is on alot of our minds. all I see is that stationary front across North Florida thats been there for the last two months it seems.

Good question. I usually refer to the United Surface Analysis webpage http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml .

[destruction92]

Did the 8PM track shift more to the west or is it the same as the 5PM track?

There is no 8PM track. Only 1 track every 6 hours.

destruction is correct they have been shifting the track around on the intermediate advisories today i believe.

If so, has the track shifted west or east from the 5 PM advisory?

[TheShrimper]

We dont need any surprises at Homestead Miami Speedway like we had 2 years ago, thank you very much.

[flwxwatcher]

the closest the nhc has it now is in 48 hours at 25.8 and 79.0 that is only about 60 miles off the coast as a decent tropical storm

Even though the TPC brings Noel closer to Florida in the 5PM advisory take a look at the forecast wind field for that time frame.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.8N 79.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

[wzrgirl1]

there is an 8 o clock track......

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 00716.html

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF Intensity and Track



18z HWRF has NOEL when it makes the closest approach to South Florida at 52.1 kts in latitud 78w.

[NcentralFlaguy]

Hmmm I wonder. Where is the front thats supposed to turn this system? I thought I knew earlier today but Im thinking there must be something closer than the trough coming down from the midwest? right? can someone please illustrate a map or something for us, because I see nothing but zonal flow. and I know that this question is on alot of our minds. all I see is that stationary front across North Florida thats been there for the last two months it seems.

Good question. I usually refer to the United Surface Analysis webpage http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml .

Thanks !!! i still only see a weak little shortwave on day 3????? so what are these models seeing!?

[Brent]

Another thing to watch is the 50-degree dew points spilling south across Florida now behind the front. This cool, dry air will spill off the coast of Florida ahead of Noel, probably killing off convection on the western side of the storm as it approaches (not that there's much convection west of the center now). So you'll probably be facing a "half storm" with gusty winds on the west primarily due to the pressure gradient west of the front in combination with the low pressure of Noel to the east.

Yeah, I noticed that. Fall is coming to Florida(It's been here for 5 days and it's GREAT, we're headed into the 30's tonight)! I don't really think this will be a big deal at all.

No need for sarcasm..If you read the post,he says the dew points will drop BEHIND the front,not before it gets here..I'd bet that Mr X-57, who has studied weather,is correct...You can have your viewpoint,but your post was uncalled for.

Huh? I was not being sarcastic. I'm trying to see what in my post was "uncalled for"

[Evil Jeremy]

there is an 8 o clock track......

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 00716.html

It is the 5PM track with updated 8PM information. The intermidate advisories do not update the cone itself.

[cycloneye]

there is an 8 o clock track......

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 00716.html

The forecast tracks change every six hours (at 5 AM EDT,11 AM EDT,5 PM EDT and 11 PM EDT) They dont change in the intermidiete advisorys.

[brunota2003]

I dont know about anyone else...but that sharp right turn seems a tad...exaggerated to me. I think the turn will be less sharp, but still well of the coast of the SE.

[Evil Jeremy]

When do the NOGAPS and UKMET come in?

[wzrgirl1]

my bad