TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[caneman]

Stick a fork in it in my opinion.....looks like we can't get anything decent going north of about 15N this year...

Dean and Felix managed to stay deep in the tropics away from all the subtropical Atlantic hostility.[/quote]

Did you already forget Humberto? Come on Gator.....

[jhamps10]

Some of you guys are freakin hilarious. You continually want to right off systems as soon as it loses convection or encounters shear. Haven't you learned your lesson by now? I mean come on.....you done it with Dean, Felix, Humberto, and now TD 8. It happens every year, and it's just hilarious. Maybe one day you'll realize. I'm not saying to upgrade this....heck, it looks terrible this morning and is in a battle, but "poof"??? Come on!

I posted something just like this for Dean and again for Felix. All these "poof", "it's gone", and "next" comments are just not accurate and should no be allowed IMO.

Thank you skysummit, at least we know that there's at least 1 person on here that isn't killing it right now. Yeah, it's in a battle right now, but it aien't dead yet, and just ask anyone in SE texas right now, did they expect a cat 1 hurricane overnight?

[windstorm99]

I think if seeing derek asking why advisories on this thing are still being written is enough for me.

Could things change sure but as of now its looks horrible.

[Zardoz]

In a season of surprises, there's a good chance that TD8 will have some surprises in store for us.

Reports of its demise will probably prove to be greatly exaggerated.

[Gustywind]

looks like we can't get anything decent going north of about 15N this year...

TD 8 is below 15n.

LOL cycloneye.....in my last post there's one week ago , i was talking about this " strange record".....i never see something serious crossing 15N lool, shoud it verifies with this system or of the season.....maybe the ridge this year is underestimated( hope i'm very wrong!)but with my untrained eyes... or my eyes are deceiving me Cycloneye... this system continues on generally west movement or very very slightly w/n/w in spite of his poor appearence since this morning....

[dtrain44]

I think a lot of the debate over TD 8 is confusing the general with the specific. We all know that tropical systems can survive and thrive much longer than expected - the key is whether we can expect THIS system to do that. All of the available evidence indicates that it will have a very tough time. Nobody's advocating turning our backs and looking again in a week, but I don't see any reason to think that this TD will not have a quite difficult time getting it together.

[miamicanes177]

I think if seeing derek asking why advisories on this thing are still being written is enough for me.

Could things change sure but as of now its looks horrible.

Any person who says advisories should be canceled today should not be taken seriously for the rest of the 2007 hurricane season. That is just a ridiculous statement to make. Unreal.

[robbielyn]

Some of you guys are freakin hilarious. You continually want to right off systems as soon as it loses convection or encounters shear. Haven't you learned your lesson by now? I mean come on.....you done it with Dean, Felix, Humberto, and now TD 8. It happens every year, and it's just hilarious. Maybe one day you'll realize. I'm not saying to upgrade this....heck, it looks terrible this morning and is in a battle, but "poof"??? Come on!

I posted something just like this for Dean and again for Felix. All these "poof", "it's gone", and "next" comments are just not accurate and should no be allowed IMO.

Stick a fork in it in my opinion.....looks like we can't get anything decent going north of about 15N this year...

Dean and Felix managed to stay deep in the tropics away from all the subtropical Atlantic hostility.

This is the year of the TUTT conditions aren't all that different from last year with enemies sal and shear still around this season. Maybe time to focus on the gulf

[jlauderdal]

I think if seeing derek asking why advisories on this thing are still being written is enough for me.

Could things change sure but as of now its looks horrible.

Any person who says advisories should be canceled today should not be taken seriously for the rest of the 2007 hurricane season. That is just a ridiculous statement to make. Unreal.

yesterday we had AJC3 giving a nice smackdown on the absolutely ridiculous blocking high post and today we have cage match developing about advisories, if not informative at least things can get rather amusing.

[windstorm99]

I think if seeing derek asking why advisories on this thing are still being written is enough for me.

Could things change sure but as of now its looks horrible.

Any person who says advisories should be canceled today should not be taken seriously for the rest of the 2007 hurricane season. That is just a ridiculous statement to make. Unreal.

derek does this for a living and and knows exactly what he's taking about.

As its been stated by many others and the national hurricane center the environment were this ugly thing is moving in is very poor for intensification.Most models are pointing this out so iam going with that right now.

Part of NHC 500am discussion

ALL GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT THE DEPRESSION FROM
STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY.

[CaneCharmer]

I have one word for enveryone... POOF!

[skysummit]

derek does this for a living and and knows exactly what he's taking about.

As its been stated by many others and the national hurricane center the environment were this ugly thing is moving in is very poor for intensification.Most models are pointing this out so iam going with that right now.

Part of NHC 500am discussion

ALL GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT THE DEPRESSION FROM
STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY.

Exactly....thank you! They say "strengthening significantly"...nothing about weakening therefore Advisories should not stop.

[windstorm99]

derek does this for a living and and knows exactly what he's taking about.

As its been stated by many others and the national hurricane center the environment were this ugly thing is moving in is very poor for intensification.Most models are pointing this out so iam going with that right now.

Part of NHC 500am discussion

ALL GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT THE DEPRESSION FROM
STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY.

Exactly....thank you! They say "strengthening significantly"...nothing about weakening therefore Advisories should not stop.

A guess it could pose a threat to the united states but the bigger quesiton is will there be anything left?

[miamicanes177]

derek does this for a living and and knows exactly what he's taking about.

As its been stated by many others and the national hurricane center the environment were this ugly thing is moving in is very poor for intensification.Most models are pointing this out so iam going with that right now.

Saying advisories should discontinue today is the most absurd thing I have ever read or head in tropical forecasting. The NHC forecasts shear to decrease over the next day and you do not discontinue advisories on a tropical depression. Again, that is just absurd.

[skysummit]

derek does this for a living and and knows exactly what he's taking about.

As its been stated by many others and the national hurricane center the environment were this ugly thing is moving in is very poor for intensification.Most models are pointing this out so iam going with that right now.

Part of NHC 500am discussion

ALL GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT THE DEPRESSION FROM
STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY.

Exactly....thank you! They say "strengthening significantly"...nothing about weakening therefore Advisories should not stop.

A guess it could pose a threat to the united states but the bigger quesiton is will there be anything left?

Yea...now I can agree with that It is having a very difficult time right now, and may very well die out completely, but as long as there is something there, all these "Poof" posts can stop. In fact, I'd much rather it get together right now than remain weak and have to deal with it a week from now.

[Blown Away]

It's a depression, it's not going to look great on satellite. Looked a little better yesterday, but there is still convection and a strong LLC. There have been many systems that tracked hundreds of miles as depressions, not TS, and ultimately became significant systems.

[windstorm99]

The majority of the models are trending to a NW movement when it gets north of the islands.Models will change in the coming days but iam just pointing the lastest trend.

[jhamps10]

A guess it could pose a threat to the united states but the bigger quesiton is will there be anything left?

Yea...now I can agree with that It is having a very difficult time right now, and may very well die out completely, but as long as there is something there, all these "Poof" posts can stop. In fact, I'd much rather it get together right now than remain weak and have to deal with it a week from now.

exactly, best post I've seen all morning on this, and who knows whoever that has to deal with this could even have a hurricane on their hands, remember TD10 that turned into TD12, and well, I think I'll stop on that storm. And look last night at Humberto, I totally thought it would not get any stronger than 55-60MPH, and it made landfall as an 80-85MPH cane! Unless we don't even have an open wave anymore, we MUST continue to watch this, I see signs of it being ill right now, but NOT, I repeat NOT dead!

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Matt, satellite images are not helping your cause!

[cpdaman]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

The shear is turning out of the west now above 15 north. So this is its chance to refire convection near its core. We will see...

wouldn't westerly shear be a lot worse for a storm moving west than easterly shear. you know something called relative shear