Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[NcentralFlaguy]

there is an 8 o clock track......

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 00716.html

It is the 5PM track with updated 8PM information. The intermediate advisories do not update the cone itself.

I apologize they only move initial part of the track to the correct coordinates. my apologies.

[destruction92]

Huh? I was not being sarcastic. I'm trying to see what in my post was "uncalled for" [/quote]

Brent, you were not being sarcastic at all....I think you were mistaken for stating that the lows would get into the 30's in Florida while you really were talking about where you live: Alabama, where the lows are probably getting into the 30's. Nothing sarcastic there.

[cycloneye]

The 00z NOGAPS and UKMET after midnight.

[destruction92]

18z HWRF Intensity and Track



18z HWRF has NOEL when it makes the closest approach to South Florida at 52.1 kts in latitud 78w.

Has the HWRF 18z shifted to the west since its last run?

What was its forecasted intensity for Noel in the previous run?

[Evil Jeremy]

The 00z NOGAPS and UKMET after midnight.

Did the 18Z come out yet? Oy, I need to make a chart of when the models come out.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 300038
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE NOEL (AL162007) 20071030 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        071030  0000   071030  1200   071031  0000   071031  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.9N  74.5W   22.1N  76.9W   23.0N  79.1W   23.3N  80.9W
BAMD    20.9N  74.5W   22.0N  76.0W   23.0N  77.4W   24.2N  78.3W
BAMM    20.9N  74.5W   21.9N  76.5W   22.5N  78.3W   23.0N  79.5W
LBAR    20.9N  74.5W   22.5N  75.8W   24.2N  76.7W   25.7N  76.9W
SHIP        45KTS          51KTS          58KTS          61KTS
DSHP        45KTS          51KTS          58KTS          61KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        071101  0000   071102  0000   071103  0000   071104  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    23.3N  81.6W   21.7N  80.5W   21.1N  80.9W   20.5N  83.6W
BAMD    25.7N  78.3W   29.5N  75.1W   35.1N  66.2W   42.8N  57.2W
BAMM    23.6N  79.6W   24.7N  76.7W   26.3N  71.9W   28.5N  64.4W
LBAR    27.1N  76.3W   29.6N  72.1W   33.3N  65.4W   37.5N  54.5W
SHIP        66KTS          65KTS          50KTS          31KTS
DSHP        66KTS          65KTS          50KTS          31KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  20.9N LONCUR =  74.5W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  19.2N LONM12 =  73.0W DIRM12 = 333DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  17.1N LONM24 =  72.1W
WNDCUR =   45KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   40KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =  175NM RD34SE =  175NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW = 100NM


SHIP and DSHP go to hurricane status.Moving 315 degrees at 11kts.

[destruction92]

Wow...can someone explain what I am seeing? Please look at the current surface map of the continental U.S. http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/cur ... enter_maps

Is the "strong enough" trough that is supposed to steer Noel to the east the one that is approaching the Pacific Northwest or the stalled out "weak" front over central Florida??

[wzrgirl1]

yeah i think it's the one in the pacific northwest ....why you don't think it will be strong enough?

[Cyclone1]

Wow...can someone explain what I am seeing? Please look at the current surface map of the continental U.S. http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/cur ... enter_maps

Is the "strong enough" trough that is supposed to steer Noel to the east the one that is approaching the Pacific Northwest or the stalled out "weak" front over central Florida??

No. It's the trough over Florida.

[MiamiensisWx]

I know this may sound frivolous (in light of uncertainties regarding Noel's path and intensity), but we just moved our outdoor chairs, potted plants, and loose objects inside to our back porch. The only things left outside are the large heavy toy structure for smaller kids and a pool skimmer net (cleaner) protected behind our pool fence. I'm not nervous, but I thought it was prudent in light of recent information from the TPC in terms of possible TS watches at 11 p.m. EDT. Obviously, the current WNW motion could be a fluctuation, and we followed this "preparation" procedure unnecessarily for Ernesto! The strong gradient (very breezy conditions) was the main factor that supported these steps in Noel's case. I don't want our small table to get knocked over by some gusts - it topples in light winds.

[wzrgirl1]

i thought derek said yesterday that it was the second one that was supposed to steer it away

[Nimbus]

I was hoping the LLC of Noel would stay inland over Cuba longer so it would not have a chance to intensify.
The first trough missed and now Noel is going to move WNW till it finds another weakness.
If that ridge stays strong over the east coast longer than 60 hours its not going to be pretty here in Florida.

[brunota2003]

I know this may sound frivolous (in light of uncertainties regarding Noel's path and intensity), but we just moved our outdoor chairs, potted plants, and loose objects inside to our back porch. The only things left outside are the large heavy toy structure for smaller kids and a pool skimmer net (cleaner) protected behind our pool fence. I'm not nervous, but I thought it was prudent in light of recent information from the TPC in terms of possible TS watches at 11 p.m. EDT. Obviously, the current WNW motion could be a fluctuation, and we followed this "preparation" procedure unnecessarily for Ernesto! The strong gradient (very breezy conditions) was the main factor that supported these steps in Noel's case. I don't want our small table to get knocked over by some gusts - it topples in light winds.

Not at all. Luck favors the prepared Plus, if it does turn out to be anything major, most of your work is already done (versus having to do it as the first rainbands come ashore...)

[NcentralFlaguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html looks like that small area of intense convection is directly over the LLC now....the small one , not the larger one to the north.

[destruction92]

yeah i think it's the one in the pacific northwest ....why you don't think it will be strong enough?

If it's the one in the Pacific Northwest, it is going to have to speed up SOON because Noel is moving at 15 mph.

If it's the one stalled out over Florida, shouldn't it already be feeling its effect?
Please correct me if I am wrong, but I thought that stalled out cold fronts (or fronts that are blue and red striped) are relatively weak compared to cold fronts that are depicted as solid blue? If this is true, I would think that the stalled out front over Florida would not be able to turn Noel much unless Noel became very strong (like category 1/2) with high vertical stacking?

[NcentralFlaguy]

Wow...can someone explain what I am seeing? Please look at the current surface map of the continental U.S. http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/cur ... enter_maps

Is the "strong enough" trough that is supposed to steer Noel to the east the one that is approaching the Pacific Northwest or the stalled out "weak" front over central Florida??

No. It's the trough over Florida.

Actually I think its the second one also, thats what the mets are saying...can a pro chime in on this please? we all would really like to know.

[cycloneye]

To get the latest radar image,refresh it.It updates very 15 minutes.

[Cyclone1]

I'm not a pro... but it's not the second one.

[MiamiensisWx]

I could be wrong, but it looks like the WNW motion has ended per Cuban radar. It looks like the center is currently resuming a NW motion, in my opinion. Does anyone think this could be significant and reflect the progged turn expected by the NHC's cone?

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif

[NcentralFlaguy]

I'm not a pro... but it's not the second one.

Now I didnt mean the one in Seattle, lol I mean the 2nd one as in the shortwave dipping south from the midwest/great lakes region.