CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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#1541 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:27 pm

FL Panhandle after Miami. Once again though we have to watch the trends. GOM looking likely now. Question is how storng the High will be at that time.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models

#1542 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:28 pm

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Re: Re:

#1543 Postby storms in NC » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:28 pm

destruction92 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:euro been consistant on FL, FL straights..Really the only model not going from brownsville to Maine..


but a lot of people here pay more attention to the GFS...according to one poster, the NHC prefers the GFS.


The NHC use a number of models and go with what has been right so far or to the closes one. Not alway GFS.
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#1544 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:28 pm

Computer models that far out are more science fiction than science. Let's wait for Dean to get out of the shear and dry air, and then we can talk.
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Re: Re:

#1545 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:29 pm

artist wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Good friggin night irene...(NEW OREANS)

it looks to be east of there to me.


Surge would not do any favors..I know that much...
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models

#1546 Postby tracyswfla » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:30 pm

Perhaps a Katrina like scenario, where it crosses the state into the Gulf?
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models

#1547 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:31 pm

tracyswfla wrote:Perhaps a Katrina like scenario, where it crosses the state into the Gulf?


It doesn't make any sense to be talking about a forecast that is at least a week and half in the future.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models

#1548 Postby tracyswfla » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:32 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:Perhaps a Katrina like scenario, where it crosses the state into the Gulf?


It doesn't make any sense to be talking about a forecast that is at least a week and half in the future.


I am not forecasting in the least, I am not qualified. Just wondering. Excuse the intrustion.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) 18z Tropical Models Posted

#1549 Postby Opal storm » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:33 pm

Extremecane wrote:Explodes as soon it gets to the gulf:

Image

Well that cetainly wouldn't be good for me, but that track is highly unlikely IMO. We've had this strong ridge over us for almost a month now, highs near 100 everyday with clear skies. Unless there's a huge pattern change in the next 2 weeks I'm really not concered about anything of that nature coming this way.
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#1550 Postby artist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:33 pm

would the surge be the same coming from the east as from the west?
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models

#1551 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:33 pm

Good observation...Once in GOM...Where does ole Dean go?
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models

#1552 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:35 pm

tracyswfla wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:Perhaps a Katrina like scenario, where it crosses the state into the Gulf?

It doesn't make any sense to be talking about a forecast that is at least a week and half in the future.

I am not forecasting in the least, I am not qualified. Just wondering. Excuse the intrustion.


The models are having trouble forecasting the next 72 hours. I just don't even want to know how valid a forecast that is more than a week into the future is.
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Re: Dean forecasts (Post personal forecasts here)

#1553 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:35 pm

To WR, knotimpared, & Luis,

Thanks for the comments on the forecast. I really wish I had better news for those in Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles - and I do - at least the latest trend is south and away from you guys' area.

-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.
New forecast.... WAY WAY late due to obligations called lunch :cheesy:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

NOTE: I hope to do some type of verification with these forecasts. Stay tuned...
--------------------------------------

UNOFFICIAL...FOR THAT STUFF THAT IS KNOWN AS OFFICIAL, REFER TO NHC/TPC FORECASTS
WXMANN TS DEAN DISCUSSION 2
1800Z AUG 14 2007

....TD 4 is upgraded to TS Dean....


....SYNOPSIS....
Earlier today, the low-level center was observed to be closer to the convection than previous believed. Will go with the 15Z NHC intensity of 35 kt as convection has waned this morning, likely due to some entrainment of stable air and the diurnal minimum. Dean continues to be under the influence of a strong subtropical ridge to the north; the storm continues to move westward at 20-25 mph.

....TRACK....
The previous forecast is now on the slow side with the center now more south and west than previously thought. The models have accordingly shifted to the south and west, and the previous forecast is now on the north side of the guidance envelope. This forecast will now increase forward speed, closely following the extrapolation for the first 24 hr, and will also be nudged south in deference to model guidance. Low level flow will remain quite strong through the period, but as the system deepens and shear weakens, it should slow down at the end of the period.

Confidence in this forecast is MEDIUM.


....INTENSITY....
The intensity forecast philosophy will remain the same. Dean will only gradually intensify in the next 36 hours due to a combination of easterly shear, stable stratocumulus influence to the north, and marginal SSTs. As Dean passes 45-50W, it should encounter a more thermodynamically favorable environment. At the same time, the shear should weaken, and be replaced with anticyclonic flow. It seems that models have a difficult time handling the upper-level low to the east. From my viewpoint, that low should aid in outflow, and such a flow is analogous to several prior rapidly intensifying storms (Joan, 1988; Ivan, 2004). The complicating factor is climatology with regards to eastern Caribbean systems, but that is mostly ignored in my forecast. The forecast is conservative due to possible land interactions. It might be important to note that the HWRF strengthens Dean to 904 mb right before landfall in Hispaniola. All current indications are that Dean will be a powerful hurricane by the end of the forecast period.

Confidence in this forecast is HIGH for the first 36 hr, MEDIUM thereafter.


....EXTENDED....
The major global models have all trended south since yesterday. However, they could easily trend back north, or they could continue to trend south. As of right now, pinning down an exact ultimate landfall location is still next to impossible. A range of tracks includes either going straight west into the western Caribbean on the southern extreme, or recurve on the northern. Out of the two, the northern extreme looks increasingly unlikely; however, not impossible. Differences in the 500mb synoptic pattern, any shortwaves that linger, and as always, the strength, location, and timing of the building high will be crucial.

Models continue to indicate a very favorable outflow pattern as a 200mb anticyclone builds over Dean in about a week. Dean is expected to be a very powerful hurricane if it does not get weakened significantly by land, although the second possibility is very much possible.

Confidence in the extended track forecast is LOW, in the intensity forecast, MEDIUM.


....LAND EFFECTS....
The latest forecast is about 12 hr faster than the previous one. Persons in the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico should begin preparations now, for a hurricane in about 3-4 days, for Hispaniola, about 5 days. Watches/warnings may be necessary for the Islands in about 24-36 hours.

Interests and persons living in the Western Atlantic and Caribbean islands (including the Turks and Caicos, Bahamas, Jamaica, and Cuba) should watch this system closely.

Persons along the U.S. southeast coastline, including the northern Gulf Coast, Florida, and the east coast should be aware of this system. However, given the uncertainty of forecasts a week out, it is best to monitor, and not panic, as details are fine-tuned in future days.


HOUR......TIME.........INTENSITY
0 HR......14/1800......35 kt
12 HR.....15/0600......35 kt
24 HR.....15/1800......40 kt
36 HR.....16/0600......45 kt
48 HR.....16/1800......55 kt
60 HR.....17/0600......65 kt
72 HR.....17/1800......80 kt
96 HR.....18/0600......95 kt
120 HR....18/1800......100 kt..inland over Hispaniola

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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models

#1554 Postby artist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:35 pm

tracyswfla wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:Perhaps a Katrina like scenario, where it crosses the state into the Gulf?


It doesn't make any sense to be talking about a forecast that is at least a week and half in the future.


I am not forecasting in the least, I am not qualified. Just wondering. Excuse the intrustion.

I don't think HURAKAN meant anything by it.
And HURAKAN - as much as we want to quit watching the models when there is the potential for any of us it is hard. I am sure you are doing the same.
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#1555 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:38 pm

lets have some sanity everyone

The chances of a 10 day Euro forecast verifying for a TC are less than you winning the mega millions and powerball in the same week
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Re: T SDean - Global Models=12z EURO very soon

#1556 Postby Downdraft » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:38 pm

Jevo wrote:Two words...

Herbert Box

Image


Two words back................ HEBERT BOX
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) 18z Tropical Models Posted

#1557 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:39 pm

southerngale wrote:Euro - 192 hrs - Miami
Info per a met - run not out for public yet


Sorry... I posted that in the wrong thread. Someone had changed the title to "Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) 18z Tropical Models Posted" so I opened it and replied without realizing someone had changed the title on the wrong thread and this was the discussion thread.

I hate all these dang thread title changes!!
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models

#1558 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:40 pm

artist wrote:I don't think HURAKAN meant anything by it.
And HURAKAN - as much as we want to quit watching the models when there is the potential for any of us it is hard. I am sure you are doing the same.


It may have sounded bad but it wasn't my intention. I look at them but don' pay too much attention because they change at every run.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models

#1559 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:41 pm

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#1560 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:42 pm

Why the 500 chart failed i have no clue.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Click on HRS at the top for each day.
Last edited by KFDM Meteorologist on Tue Aug 14, 2007 2:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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