TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[miamicanes177]

NHC confirms TD8 has not weakened....winds remain 35mph and the pressure 1006mb.

[KWT]

No they don't, storms in NC, they have this as a tropical storm as soon as tonight, clearly not going to happen that way, they peak this system out at 45kts but unless that shear eases the only thing this system will do is weaken.
Really IMO this should be a 25kt TD right now.

Note though if the models completly missed todays shear its possible they are overdoing the shear 96-120hrs out as well. Will need watching!

[HURAKAN]

Matt, this is for you, enjoy!!!

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

A 0900Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS RECEIVED AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
SUGGESTED THAT SYSTEM COULD HAVE BEEN A TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE IMAGE DEPICTED A FEW UN-FLAGGED 35 KT WINDS JUST TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

[windstorm99]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 131433
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

A 0900Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS RECEIVED AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
SUGGESTED THAT SYSTEM COULD HAVE BEEN A TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE IMAGE DEPICTED A FEW UN-FLAGGED 35 KT WINDS JUST TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SINCE THEN...VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SEVERELY SHEARED...POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
STORM. AFTERWARD...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER
MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS AND AN EARLIER SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE...THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...REFLECTING AN INITIAL ESTIMATED MOTION
OF 285/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST...WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
A REFLECTION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT JUST TO THE LEFT...FOLLOWING
A BLEND OF THE UKMET...GFDL...AND THE GFS

[DrewFL]

ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVELS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



That's the only reason I even mentioned the POD.
They can cancel flights as quickly as they task them. No biggie.

[CrazyC83]

The dry air is eating this thing alive along with the mid-level shear. It has to survive the next 48 hours to do much...

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

Latest:



Holding now.

[windstorm99]

The dry air is eating this thing alive along with the mid-level shear. It has to survive the next 48 hours to do much...

Its really surrounding the system....

[skysummit]

The dry air is eating this thing alive along with the mid-level shear. It has to survive the next 48 hours to do much...

Not really....it can dissolve all the way down to a naked, low level swirl, and do lots in 7 days.

[KWT]

Yeah it hasn't weakened any further Hurakan but it still looks badly sheared right now looking at it and its going to have to improve its convective coverage if its going to keep its chances up.

By the way as long a sit survives this still needs watching, it'll probably eventually find itself in a better set-up 7 ays down the road, yep thats a damn long time but as we saw with TD10/12 they can re-spin up and develop once they finally reach more favorable regions. Probably going to have to wait till 65W IMO though.

[storms in NC]

No they don't, storms in NC, they have this as a tropical storm as soon as tonight, clearly not going to happen that way, they peak this system out at 45kts but unless that shear eases the only thing this system will do is weaken.
Really IMO this should be a 25kt TD right now.

Note though if the models completly missed todays shear its possible they are overdoing the shear 96-120hrs out as well. Will need watching!

Sorry I mean TS not TD Was typing to fast not reading what I wrote. Thanks

[windstorm99]

The dry air is eating this thing alive along with the mid-level shear. It has to survive the next 48 hours to do much...

Not really....it can dissolve all the way down to a naked, low level swirl, and do lots in 7 days.

without convection the LLC will likely weaken or fall apart.

[jhamps10]

The dry air is eating this thing alive along with the mid-level shear. It has to survive the next 48 hours to do much...

Not really....it can dissolve all the way down to a naked, low level swirl, and do lots in 7 days.

yep, aien't that the truth. I'd still be on alert in the islands for a Weak TS, but I highly doubt that a hurricane will form before the islands, US still should keep an eye on it as if it can make it past the next 48-72 hours then watch out for it to possibly be in a favorable area.

[Vortex]

Glad I don't pay for "Accurateweather"

[KWT]

Eventually it would windstorm but the naked LLC have been known to last a good 3-4 days sometimes before eithe rdying away or convection builds over it again and while it is badly lacking in convection its not totally void of convection like some cyclones have been in the past, there is some convection on the southern side still even if it is getting quite neatly sheared.

[Sanibel]

Has a way to go to tap better SST's to fight the shear. Hmm, never expected bad shear.

[Brent]

Looks like no development for the next few days.

[ts_kakolina]

Please stay calm and remember:

"When all is said and done, the weather and love are the two elements about which one can never be sure."
-Alice Hoffman

"Don't knock the weather. If it didn't change once in a while, nine out of ten people couldn't start a conversation. "
-Kin Hubbard

[storms in NC]

The dry air is eating this thing alive along with the mid-level shear. It has to survive the next 48 hours to do much...

Not really....it can dissolve all the way down to a naked, low level swirl, and do lots in 7 days.

without convection the LLC will likely weaken or fall apart.

Depends on how strong the low is. I have see Naked lows stay that way for a few days and turn into a hurricane. But don't think this one will. Be a Hurricane that is. Not right now.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like no development for the next few days.

Looking that way - probably staying in the 25-35 kt range for the next 3 days. The middle and long term is still uncertain though. If it can survive (even as a weak TD), I think it has a chance of picking back up.

Isn't this what we saw from another I storm two years ago? Yet she perservered...