Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[destruction92]

By the way, I don't believe I said there were dew points in the 50s in south Florida. Dew points in the panhandle are in the low 40s to low 50s now. Dew points are in the upper 40s along the coast of Georgia. That dry air is moving south quite rapidly behind the cold front which lies across the central peninsula. But, no, you won't see dew points in the 40s or low 50s in Miami by tomorrow. Mid to upper 60s would be more like it behind the front across the southern peninsula at first. And the closer Noel gets to the coast, the more cooler, drier air it'll absorb. There's a big difference in heat energy in 80 dew point air and upper 60s dew point air. Combine that with mid and upper-level dry air intrusion and its western half is going to suffer as it nears Florida.

Finally, as someone asked earlier "what cold front is going to steer Noel?". Cold fronts don't steer tropical cyclones. They move with the mid to upper-level winds. Mid and upper-level wind flow along and ahead of the cold front will cause the northeast turn.[/quote]

Okay Wxman57, could you please answer which cold front's mid and upper-level wind flow will be that causes Noel to turn Northeast?

Will it be the "mid and upper-level wind flow" ahead of the cold front approaching the Pacific Northwest or the "mid and upper-level wind flow along and ahead" of the stalled out front over Florida that will steer Noel well away from the U.S. coast?????

Please answer this question as it has been confusing a lot of us on the forum...I appreciate you correcting us, but I think I speak for the curious in regards to wanting a direct answer. Thanks and keep enlightening us so we don't face meteorological ignorance.

[Blown Away]

Is it me or is Noel blowing up on the IR.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Blown Away]

Hey Mods I am Really Really Sorry But I can't resist this:

Noel's COC (center of Circulation) is squirting out Hard Rain
and Wind--that's some intensification Right Durr...LMAO...
Something getting Noel Excited Aye???

Not sure how to reply??? Interesting.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Sorry if anyone got offended by something that was completely
light in nature...

I think he's blowing up on that IR.

Hey Guys do you think this could do a humberto
and hit category 1 before coming near Miami?????

[destruction92]

I think he's blowing up on that IR.

Hey Guys do you think this could do a humberto
and hit category 1 before coming near Miami?????

The chances of that are about as good as the Dolphins repeating their perfect season.

[Cyclone1]

I think he's blowing up on that IR.

Hey Guys do you think this could do a humberto
and hit category 1 before coming near Miami?????

I have no idea how that would be pulling a Humberto but I suppose it's possible.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thanks destruction92
more opinions the better

[Blown Away]

I think he's blowing up on that IR.

Hey Guys do you think this could do a humberto
and hit category 1 before coming near Miami?????

The chances of that are about as good as the Dolphins repeating their perfect season.

Hey, there only 8 away from that perfect season!

[destruction92]

I think he's blowing up on that IR.

Hey Guys do you think this could do a humberto
and hit category 1 before coming near Miami?????

The chances of that are about as good as the Dolphins repeating their perfect season.

Hey, there only 8 away from that perfect season!

ROFLMAO!!!!!!
OMG!!!!! Quote of the day material!!!!

Okay, back to Noel.

[Tropics Guy]

I think he's blowing up on that IR.

Hey Guys do you think this could do a humberto
and hit category 1 before coming near Miami?????

The chances of that are about as good as the Dolphins repeating their perfect season.

Hey, there only 8 away from that perfect season!

You mean inverted perfect season (0-16)

[cycloneye]

Any sports talk please have it in the Sportscenter forum.

[Rainband]

Back on Topic. Besides I am A Bucs fan

[wxman57]

I have a couple of surface plots here. The first is a wide shot showing Noel to Florida. Note the 25-30 kt winds all down the coast of Florida in the wake of the cold front. There's a gap off to the east across the central Bahamas of 15-20 kt winds just outside Noel's circulation, then back to 25+ kts eastward to Noel. One thing I notice on recent satellite imagery is that Noel's squalls are not extending as far east as earlier. In order to strengthen, it can't have strongest winds 300 miles from the center as it did earlier today. So we may expect some strengthening over the next 24 hours if the trend continues.

Here's the analysis:


Next, I zoomed in on Florida to show the cooler, drier air flowing rapidly southward across the state. Note, in particular, the 63-66 dew points near Cape Canaveral right on the coast as well as 67 dew points all the way down to Palm Beach now. That cool, dry air is racing offshore of Georgia and the Carolinas and spilling down the east coast of Florida. Tropical cyclones don't like those sort of conditions, so any strengthening will be short-lived.

[Aquawind]

The plane is getting ready for depature soon..

[NcentralFlaguy]

the front across the northern portion of florida isnt moving....or is it?
... I know our local mets are saying that this will linger in place into mid/late week causing us showers . so given the fact that its simply not moving south at the moment. doesnt that mean the primary steering mechanism will have to come from the trough dipping to the south from the midwest , when it finally pushes this one through or amplifies it or whatever..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thank you wxman57 and others for clarifying what
noel might do in terms of intensification.

[MiamiensisWx]

"When in doubt, listen to the professional meteorologists."

Nice analysis, wxman57. Additionally, do you think a NW motion is resuming per current data?

[cycloneye]

To get the latest radar imagere refresh it.The radar updates every 15 minutes.Looking better on radar.

[Chacor]

At least 13 people have been killed in flooding in the Dominican Republic following torrential rains dumped by Tropical Storm Noel.

The deaths were reported in the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, and along the south coast.

It is feared the death toll will rise, with several others reported missing.

The storm was expected to pour 25-50cm (10-20in) of rain on the Dominican Republic and neighbouring Haiti, the US National Hurricane Center said.

By early Monday evening (2100 GMT) the centre of the storm had passed and was heading north-west, past the eastern tip of Cuba towards the Bahamas.

However, on the island of Hispaniola - divided between the Dominican Republic and Haiti - rain continued to fall, forcing river levels higher.

Several bridges were reported to have collapsed, cutting off communities.

Hundreds of people were being evacuated, amid fears of flash floods and landslides, the Dominican authorities said.

The head of the Dominican National Emergency Committee, retired General Luis Luna Paulino, said 13 deaths had been confirmed.

He told Reuters there was a report of a family being buried when their house collapsed, and another of a family in a car killed by a falling wall.

"If those two accidents are confirmed then the deaths climb to 18," he said.

The newspaper Diario Libre said on its website that farmers had suffered big losses and that numerous areas had lost power.

Deforested slopes

Hispaniola is particularly vulnerable to flooding because of its steep hills and because many houses are no more than shacks.

While there were not as yet any reports of fatalities from Haiti, the country often suffers worse from flooding than its neighbour because so much of it has been deforested.

The town of Cabaret, north of the capital Port-au-Prince, where floods earlier this month killed at least 23 people, was being evacuated, and Prime Minister Jacques Edouard Alexis urged people to seek shelter.

"It's very serious now," he said.

"It's moving very slowly and dropping a lot of rain."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7068193.stm

[cycloneye]

That had to be posted in the threats thread at the top of forum.