Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[loro-rojo]

By looking at the radar loop coming from Cuba, it seems that the circulation is very close to land and it might even make landfall in Cuba.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

cycloneye on that radar noel looks very close to cuba
but i might be seeing it wrong...

[Blown Away]

Winds very gusty tonight: Just measured a 22mph gust

[DESTRUCTION5]

Winds very gusty tonight: Just measured a 22mph gust

Was at Hobe Sound Beach about 5:00 and it was Windy 30-35 MPH..You should go..Worth the trip..

[Blown Away]

I'm 1 mile from Hobe Sound Beach. I'm sure the winds are 30-35mph at the beach. The winds were nothing this morning but have picked up this afternoon.

[Blown Away]

By looking at the radar loop coming from Cuba, it seems that the circulation is very close to land and it might even make landfall in Cuba.

The NHC track had Noel passing very close to Cuba, I don't think it will landafall in Cuba and seems to be following the NHC track, which takes it WNW.

[boca]

The 00NAM is starting to roll in.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The 00z models will be very important to see.

[NcentralFlaguy]

yes I agree, they all should be initialized pretty well this time.

[wxman57]

I found a 00Z preliminary NHC track on the NCEP server (OFCI track). It's right of the 21Z track. No guarantee NHC will go with this track at 03Z, but it indicates what they were thinking a few hours ago:

[wxman57]

I found a 00Z preliminary NHC track on the NCEP server (OFCI track). It's right of the 21Z track. No guarantee NHC will go with this track at 03Z, but it indicates what they were thinking a few hours ago:

[JonathanBelles]

I have NE winds at 21mph

[destruction92]

Still nothing much to worry about in terms of Noel doing any damage to the U.S. Derek Ortt sees Noel encountering shear very soon...like 24 hours maybe, "This forecast only brings Noel to 60KT since WV imagery is suggesting that Noel may encounter shear in about 24 hours."

I think Floridians don't need to be overly concerned. Although it doesn't hurt to make preparations, by no means should there be concern.

[mascpa]

Too close for comfort

[wxman57]

Here's a plot of more models. I removed the BAM models as they're not good in the subtropics or when the environment is changing. Most dynamic models are included (no EC, of course). Pretty strong consensus in a sharp turn by Andros Island.

[wxman57]

Here's a plot of mostly 00Z dynamic models. I removed the BAM models as they're not good in the subtropics or when the environment is changing. Most dynamic models are included (no EC, of course). Pretty strong consensus in a sharp turn by Andros Island. Of course, consensus doesn't always = right, but it does show that they all see the same steering currents.

[Typhoon_Willie]

People should be concerned anytime a tropical system comes close.

[destruction92]

I found a 00Z preliminary NHC track on the NCEP server (OFCI track). It's right of the 21Z track. No guarantee NHC will go with this track at 03Z, but it indicates what they were thinking a few hours ago:

great, so Noel's track will shift east! Hallelujah!

[Derek Ortt]

thats the 21Z track interpolated onto the 0Z initial position

[tolakram]

Still nothing much to worry about in terms of Noel doing any damage to the U.S. Derek Ortt sees Noel encountering shear very soon...like 24 hours maybe, "This forecast only brings Noel to 60KT since WV imagery is suggesting that Noel may encounter shear in about 24 hours."

I think Floridians don't need to be overly concerned. Although it doesn't hurt to make preparations, by no means should there be concern.

Why say this? It doesn't add anything to the discussion. You aren't a forecaster and you certainly aren't a voice of authority. If you want to forecast then post a disclaimer. I suspect at this point you're seriously wishing Noel doesn't get close to Florida because of the numerous claims you made yesterday.