Typhoon Man-yi (04W)
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Not a very nice prognostic here...
WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAN-YI) HAS INTENSIFIED TO 125 KTS, WITH THE
EYE DIAMETER STEADY AT 30 NM. A 120934Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYE WALL, AND SPIRAL BANDING
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM, THIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. ANALYSIS OF ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TY 04W TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAN-YI) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-
SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POSITION DUE TO
THE WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 6.5/6.5. THE SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RIDGE AXIS.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TY 04W REMAINS UNCHANGED: THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A STANDARD POLEWARD FLOW SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AROUND THE AXIS OF THE STR. ONCE NORTH OF STR AXIS THE STORM
WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
B. TY 04W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR
OVER OKINAWA. TY 04W WILL REACH THIS BREAK NEAR TAU 12, AND SUBSEQUENTLY
TURN NORTHEAST. THE TC WILL INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) SOUTH OF JAPAN NEAR TAU 48. THE
UPPER LEVEL MIDLATITUDE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA WILL
FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO THE ET OF TY 04W AND WILL AID IN THE ACCELERATION
OF THE STORM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48, BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS ET BEGINS. THE FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, BUT IS FASTER IN THE ALONG-TRACK
DIRECTION FROM TAU 48 ONWARD.
C. THE STORM SHOULD COMPLETE ET BY TAU 72 IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KANTO PLAIN AS IT ACCELERATES IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. WHILE UNDER
GOING ET, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. DESPITE THIS FACT, THE STORM WILL STILL
PRODUCE WINDS OVER 60 KTS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
Japan is in for a major storm system.
WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAN-YI) HAS INTENSIFIED TO 125 KTS, WITH THE
EYE DIAMETER STEADY AT 30 NM. A 120934Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYE WALL, AND SPIRAL BANDING
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM, THIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. ANALYSIS OF ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TY 04W TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAN-YI) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-
SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POSITION DUE TO
THE WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 6.5/6.5. THE SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RIDGE AXIS.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TY 04W REMAINS UNCHANGED: THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A STANDARD POLEWARD FLOW SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AROUND THE AXIS OF THE STR. ONCE NORTH OF STR AXIS THE STORM
WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
B. TY 04W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR
OVER OKINAWA. TY 04W WILL REACH THIS BREAK NEAR TAU 12, AND SUBSEQUENTLY
TURN NORTHEAST. THE TC WILL INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) SOUTH OF JAPAN NEAR TAU 48. THE
UPPER LEVEL MIDLATITUDE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA WILL
FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO THE ET OF TY 04W AND WILL AID IN THE ACCELERATION
OF THE STORM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48, BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS ET BEGINS. THE FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, BUT IS FASTER IN THE ALONG-TRACK
DIRECTION FROM TAU 48 ONWARD.
C. THE STORM SHOULD COMPLETE ET BY TAU 72 IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KANTO PLAIN AS IT ACCELERATES IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. WHILE UNDER
GOING ET, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. DESPITE THIS FACT, THE STORM WILL STILL
PRODUCE WINDS OVER 60 KTS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
Japan is in for a major storm system.
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Latest obs:
Naha Airport: ROAH 121430Z 07019G31KT 040V110 5000 -SHRA FEW006 SCT010 BKN020 28/25 Q0985 RMK 1ST006 3CU010 7CU020 A2909 P/FR
Kadena AB: RODN 121455Z AUTO 08033G44KT 9999 -DZ SCT023 28/25 A2912 RMK AO2 PK WND 08044/1451 RAE1444DZB1423E1427B1444 PRESFR SLP860 P0006 60012 T02760251 58044
Pressure tendency falling rapidly - 0.13 inches (4.4 hPa) lower than three hours ago
Futenma: ROTM 121458Z 09027G43KT 4800 -SHRA BKN005 OVC030 28/24 A2910 RMK PK WND 08048/07 PRESS FR SLP839 TCCOR1C P0013 60058 T02780239 403280261 58041 SP28.810
Pressure tendency 0.12 inches (4.1 hPa) lower than three hours ago
Naha Airport: ROAH 121430Z 07019G31KT 040V110 5000 -SHRA FEW006 SCT010 BKN020 28/25 Q0985 RMK 1ST006 3CU010 7CU020 A2909 P/FR
Kadena AB: RODN 121455Z AUTO 08033G44KT 9999 -DZ SCT023 28/25 A2912 RMK AO2 PK WND 08044/1451 RAE1444DZB1423E1427B1444 PRESFR SLP860 P0006 60012 T02760251 58044
Pressure tendency falling rapidly - 0.13 inches (4.4 hPa) lower than three hours ago
Futenma: ROTM 121458Z 09027G43KT 4800 -SHRA BKN005 OVC030 28/24 A2910 RMK PK WND 08048/07 PRESS FR SLP839 TCCOR1C P0013 60058 T02780239 403280261 58041 SP28.810
Pressure tendency 0.12 inches (4.1 hPa) lower than three hours ago
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My son, Michael and his wife Liz are stationed at Kadena in Okinawa and are experiencing this storm firsthand. I have him logged in and he will be updating the forum as this storm progresses. If anyone is interested in calling him, assuming phone lines continue to work, his number is a local call from the states. Just let me know and I will PM it to you. The army hasn't prepared them, or anyone for that matter, for the intensity of this typhoon. The only updated information they are receiving is from this forum. Thanks Storm2K! No government shelters, no typhoon shutters - whats up with that?? Anyway, if everyone has specific questions as to what's going on there, his login ID is wehrkampjr_21.
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- HURAKAN
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Re:
fenmarg wrote:My son, Michael and his wife Liz are stationed at Kadena in Okinawa and are experiencing this storm firsthand. I have him logged in and he will be updating the forum as this storm progresses. If anyone is interested in calling him, assuming phone lines continue to work, his number is a local call from the states. Just let me know and I will PM it to you. The army hasn't prepared them, or anyone for that matter, for the intensity of this typhoon. The only updated information they are receiving is from this forum. Thanks Storm2K! No government shelters, no typhoon shutters - whats up with that?? Anyway, if everyone has specific questions as to what's going on there, his login ID is wehrkampjr_21.
That's a problem. Okinawa gets by typhoons almost yearly, I don't see how the government doesn't have a shelter for its citizens.
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- WesternPacificWeather.com
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Re: Typhoon Man-yi (04W)
The place is built like a bomb shelter. I've never been to such a typhoon proof place in my life. I was there for Nabi in 2005 (which was much more benign than this) and it was clear how well prepared this island is. The rest of the world can learn many lessons from Okinawa!!
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- windstorm99
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Re: Typhoon Man-yi (04W)
Watch it grow into a monster on this animated loop i made.
Last edited by windstorm99 on Thu Jul 12, 2007 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Tropical Wave
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- Location: Okinawa, Japan
Re: Typhoon Man-yi (04W)
I do believe you are right about the way Okinawa seems to be built very well to withstand the desruction that can be caused by a typhoon. They definately have a leg up on the United States when it comes to that.
It's now approaching 2am local Okinawa time here. The steady wind and wind gusts have definatly started to pick up. We are now in TCCOR-1E. It is still only raining on and off but I'm sure that will change very soon. I'm going to try and get some rest before we get hit with the worst of it. No doubt that I won't be able to sleep very long so I'll be back in a bit with another more extensive update and hopefully get some pictures/video for you guys..
It's now approaching 2am local Okinawa time here. The steady wind and wind gusts have definatly started to pick up. We are now in TCCOR-1E. It is still only raining on and off but I'm sure that will change very soon. I'm going to try and get some rest before we get hit with the worst of it. No doubt that I won't be able to sleep very long so I'll be back in a bit with another more extensive update and hopefully get some pictures/video for you guys..
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Re:
I'm taking you up on this bet. I forecast this to make landfall as a major hurricane. The loser admits he was wrong.Derek Ortt wrote:looks like shear is starting to impinge upon this system
I'd look from weakening from ehre on out and would wager anything that this does not strike japan as a cat 3. Not sure why JTWC always forecasts these strong systems to hit japan as a 3, when they always weaken rapidly before landfall
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Re: Typhoon Man-yi (04W)
Just in...135kts sustained with gusts to 165kts. That is gusting to 190mph!!!!!! Holy crap that is strong.
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Re: Typhoon Man-yi (04W)
Kadena is really in for and intense eyewall. What a powerhouse of a typhoon!
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Re: Super-Typhoon Man-yi (04W)
I'll accept your bet Miamicanes
We will be using the JMA advisories with the appropriate correction from 10 minute to 1 minute sustained winds
Look at the western side, severe outflow restriction
We will be using the JMA advisories with the appropriate correction from 10 minute to 1 minute sustained winds
Look at the western side, severe outflow restriction
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Re: Super-Typhoon Man-yi (04W)
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- P.K.
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Re: Super-Typhoon Man-yi (04W)
Luis there is no such thing as a "super-typhoon" officially.
Still at 95kts (930hPa).
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0704 MAN-YI (0704)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 24.9N 127.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 170NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 350NM EAST 280NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 29.1N 128.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 141800UTC 33.4N 134.9E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 151800UTC 35.9N 142.2E 270NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
Still at 95kts (930hPa).
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0704 MAN-YI (0704)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 24.9N 127.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 170NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 350NM EAST 280NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 29.1N 128.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 141800UTC 33.4N 134.9E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 151800UTC 35.9N 142.2E 270NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
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