Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[fci]

If it strengthens quickly isn't it more prone to turn poleward especially this late in the season?

[HURAKAN]

Derek, this could be the case of SHIPS looking way too far north for potential shear, as we've seen discussed at AMS conferences. It's the best looking non-TD I've ever seen now. The way it's going, it may be a TS by tonight.

Finally I get a Pro-Met to agree with me.

[gatorcane]

If it strengthens quickly isn't it more prone to turn poleward especially this late in the season?

Well the pro mets can answer but I will say that we need to look at the mean mid-level flow out there and being so far south I doubt it.

One possibility is that it moves WNW over the next 5 days with only nominal ridging to the north and once it gains enough lattitude (over a LONG period of time) it may catch a weakness.

Other than that I see this thing moving West to WNW for the forseeable future.

[JTD]

SHIPS for some reason has high shear over the system. Has 23KT of shear in 12 hours

Probably another phantom shear thanks to model NCEP (why is that model even considered?). System does not look sheared

Derek, this could be the case of SHIPS looking way too far north for potential shear, as we've seen discussed at AMS conferences. It's the best looking non-TD I've ever seen now. The way it's going, it may be a TS by tonight.

57,

Question for you. Have you had a chance to look much into the long-range synoptics yet? Any ideas if this will have a shot of getting across to affect some portion of the eastern seaboard or Bermuda or would you bet on a recurve away from land.

Also, any thoughts on the potential of it getting into the carribbean? Sorry I know this is way downstream but since this is a message board and we're here to speculate....

[JonathanBelles]

I have to agree with the pros, This looks very good for being technically a low. It looks like a TD to me. The data thats available supports it.

[wxman57]

57,

Question for you. Have you had a chance to look much into the long-range synoptics yet? Any ideas if this will have a shot of getting across to affect some portion of the eastern seaboard or Bermuda or would you bet on a recurve away from land.

Also, any thoughts on the potential of it getting into the carribbean? Sorry I know this is way downstream but since this is a message board and we're here to speculate....

GFS and ECMWF indicate a weakness in the ridge to the north in 4-5 days as the system passes 50-55W. May not be much to hold it on a WNW track by then. I think a turn to the northwest or north prior to the Caribbean looks like a good possibility.

[KWT]

This should be upgraded today, as wxman57 its probably a 30-35kt system right now. Looks very good and its gonig to be a long term tracker from the looks of things even if it does re-curve its going to be with us probably for the next 10-14 days. Normally I'd say at this time of year re-curve is just about certain but then again the mid-latytiude belt has been extremely strong this year so always a chance it could go more westward then one expects.

Its going to be either TD12 or TD13...

[Emmett_Brown]

Wow... this is am impressive disturbance... definitely appears to be at lease a TD already. This one is kind of rare though, and without many recent analogs... if I were to guess, it seems like the LLC is located around 8-9 degree N. That is really far south for a late September disturbance that is about to cross 35 degrees.

My point is only that if it is going to make it across, which is highly uncertain, it would have to be a low rider, and it is definitely riding low. Looks to be moving due W at this time, and at a decent clip.

[cycloneye]

Its going to be either TD12 or TD13...

Why the selection of those being the one.Which other one you see being a TD?

[LarryWx]

FCI sure if you look at those model runs. But take a look at this Atlantic wide view map. This invest is FAR too south to go fishing.

Based on history, I disagree with the underlined statement. Imho, the lower latitude, indeed, does make it more difficult to go fishing. But it can still easily go fish eventually, even if not anytime soon.

Examples of fish from low latitudes this time of year:

1) A storm formed on 9/16/1902 at 7.7 N, 30.8 W. It never made it west of 53.0 W. Here's a link to the track:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

2) On 9/24/1996, what became Isidore formed at 8.6 N, 23.3 W. It never made it west of 43.2 W. Link:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Emmett_Brown]

Definitlely has a large envelop. Amazing how quickly the last the convection is filling in throughout the circulation in the last few frames of the VIS loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[artist]

It is nearly impossible to forecast how strong something might be or where it might go when it is this weak. Besides, not many of the models right now are showing fish.

Looks VERY fish like from this model plotter taken from the Weather Underground site:

I would like to add that the LBAR and BAMD are some of the least reliable models for storms.

the bam models are good for the deep tropics. Here is a good thread to read by ALhurricane about the different models- viewtopic.php?f=61&t=9467
What has happened to him, by the way?

[KWT]

94L could become a TD sooner simply because of its current position IMO, the NHC probably won't be in no rush to upgrade this one because its no mans land. IMO this probably is a TD already. In terms of organisation 96L is ahead of 94L IMO.

[Emmett_Brown]

FCI sure if you look at those model runs. But take a look at this Atlantic wide view map. This invest is FAR too south to go fishing.

Based on history, I disagree with the underlined statement. Imho, the lower latitude, indeed, does make it more difficult to go fishing. But it can still easily go fish eventually, even if not anytime soon.

Examples of fish from low latitudes this time of year:

1) A storm formed on 9/16/1902 at 7.7 N, 30.8 W. It never made it west of 53.0 W. Here's a link to the track:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

2) On 9/24/1996, what became Isidore formed at 8.6 N, 23.3 W. It never made it west of 43.2 W. Link:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Good points. Obviously this could go fishing even if it developed at 0N. This one is already approaching 35 W, however, so I think it still has a chance to get across. Its going to be close though, and certainly not guranteed to avoid fishing...

[CrazyC83]

Right now I am thinking this (which I believe might be a TD now) is going , but I sense a major hurricane (perhaps even a Cat 5) out of this.

[Emmett_Brown]

This just a short range forecast, but judging by the 500mb steering currents at 48 hours, this should continue mostly W over the next couple of days. Doesnt preclude a fish later of course:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/5av_48.gif

[KWT]

In terms of track there is a weakness present around 120hrs that I think will probably lift this systema a lot. Mind you it should be noted the high pressure belt has been pretty strong this year so far which may mean it getting further west then you'd expect. I'd be surprised if gets as far west as the USA but the NE Caribbean plus Bermuda should probably be watching.

[cycloneye]

Being so large in area,is going to be a close call for the Northern Leewards.

[CrazyC83]

The footprint and name (probably the name female K name) suggest this could be the poor fishies' Katrina...

[Emmett_Brown]

Anybody want to take a guess at the current position? My guess is 8.5N, 34.3W based on this vis loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html