Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[RL3AO]

Day 1 and 2 shifted south, day 3-5 is the same on the latest forecast

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

FL still in the cone, but just a little bit.

[JTD]

Headlines from 11 pm:

...Noel producing heavy rain over portions of the southeastern
Bahamas...heavy rains continuing over Hispaniola...tropical storm
watch may be required for Southeast Florida early Tuesday...

at 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the government of Cuba has extended the
Tropical Storm Warning westward to include the province of Ciego de
Avila. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the Cuban
provinces of Camaguey...Las Tunas... Holguin...and Guantanamo.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the central and
southeastern Bahamas...including the Turks and Caicos Islands.

At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has
been discontinued.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northwestern
Bahamas.

Interest in southern Florida should monitor the progress of Noel. A
tropical storm watch may be required for Southeast Florida early
Tuesday.

Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...21.2 N...75.0 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

[bocadude86]

No I think the map is showing that the position is south and west of were they thought it would be

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

Note a couple of things on the 03Z track - it's almost exactly the same as the OFCI track I posted earlier (no big surprise with that much model consensus). Note also that there are no TS-force winds in SW or NW of the center as it approaches Florida. This would be due to increasing SW wind shear and dry air intrusion. Finally (ok, 3 things), note the weakening as it approaches Florida (dry air/wind shear).

So the NHC is forecasting all TS-force winds to be east of the center across the Bahamas - at least all the 39+ mph winds directly associated with the circulation around Noel's center. Like I've said for days, with such a strong pressure gradient behind that front due to the large high pressure to the north, the entire FL east coast will likely see 35-45 mph sustained wind regardless of Noel's presence over the next 3-4 days. Winds might actually increase as Noel moves off to the NE and transitions to extratropical, as that'll help to pump more cool, dry air southward off the SE U.S. Coast and down toward Florida.

[MiamiensisWx]

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

That's an interesting change from the previous WNW motion. It looks like my NW movement on radar was correct. Additionally, the new positions match wxman57's 0Z path (center of cone). It has been shifted further east.

[Vortex]

Similar set to Hurricane Kate in 1985

Here's an exerpt

the autumn of 1985, a strong high pressure system persisted over the southeastern United States, while a major trough existed over the southwestern United States. With the exception of a minor cold front, the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean remained favorable for tropical development up until November, with water temperatures near 27 ºC (80 ºF), and little upper-level shear. When a tropical wave reached a position north of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, it was able to organize under the favorable conditions, and became Tropical Storm Kate on November 15.

An anticyclone developed over the Florida Keys, providing Kate with the opportunity to strengthen. After drifting northwestward, Kate accelerated to the west over the southern Bahamas, becoming a hurricane on November 16 and a 110 mph (175 km/h) hurricane on the 19th. It hit northern Cuba on the 19th, where 200,000 people in Havana were evacuated. With the eyewall over land, Kate weakened to a 90 mph (155 km/h) hurricane before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico on the night of the 19th.

Hurricane Kate maintained its organization while crossing northern Cuba, and quickly re-strengthened in the Gulf of Mexico. It rapidly intensified on November 20 to a 120 mph (195 km/h) major hurricane. An approaching frontal trough brought Kate to the northeast, where slightly cooler waters over the northern Gulf of Mexico weakened the hurricane. It hit Mexico Beach, Florida late on the 21st as a 95 mph hurricane, and quickly weakened over land. After crossing Georgia, Kate approached very cold waters and increasing upper-level shear, causing the hurricane to become extratropical on November 23 while southeast of North Carolina.


[edit] Late formation
Kate was unusual because it became a major hurricane in November, one of only 5 storms to do so. Other storms that became major hurricanes in November include Hurricane Greta of the 1956 season, a hurricane during the 1912 season, Hurricane Michelle in 2001 and Hurricane Lenny of 1999. Kate was also the latest-season major hurricane, having become a major hurricane on November 20.

[hial2]

Good news indeed...However,don't leave you guards down..As I recall,models were in good consensus this morning too..and look what happened..
When Derek said he'd be getting ready,that opened my eyes

[Canelaw99]

I agree...usually 2 days or so out there's a little flip-flopping with the cone....east to west then back again. Will be interesting to see where we're at in the morning though, that's for sure.

[destruction92]

Note a couple of things on the 03Z track - it's almost exactly the same as the OFCI track I posted earlier (no big surprise with that much model consensus). Note also that there are no TS-force winds in SW or NW of the center as it approaches Florida. This would be due to increasing SW wind shear and dry air intrusion. Finally (ok, 3 things), note the weakening as it approaches Florida (dry air/wind shear).

So the NHC is forecasting all TS-force winds to be east of the center across the Bahamas - at least all the 39+ mph winds directly associated with the circulation around Noel's center. Like I've said for days, with such a strong pressure gradient behind that front due to the large high pressure to the north, the entire FL east coast will likely see 35-45 mph sustained wind regardless of Noel's presence over the next 3-4 days. Winds might actually increase as Noel moves off to the NE and transitions to extratropical, as that'll help to pump more cool, dry air southward off the SE U.S. Coast and down toward Florida.

Once again, more evidence from Wxman57 that Florida is in the clear. Praise the lord!

[Blown Away]

The NHC does adjust the track during intermediate advisories.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_3W.shtml

[Vortex]

Folks,

This time of year modeling of tropical systems can be challenging. Just look at the difference in NHC variance from 24 hours ago. The 00z runs should be interesting..

[Canelaw99]

Did the plane go or not? This thread hasn't had a peep.....

[Evil Jeremy]

Note a couple of things on the 03Z track - it's almost exactly the same as the OFCI track I posted earlier (no big surprise with that much model consensus). Note also that there are no TS-force winds in SW or NW of the center as it approaches Florida. This would be due to increasing SW wind shear and dry air intrusion. Finally (ok, 3 things), note the weakening as it approaches Florida (dry air/wind shear).

So the NHC is forecasting all TS-force winds to be east of the center across the Bahamas - at least all the 39+ mph winds directly associated with the circulation around Noel's center. Like I've said for days, with such a strong pressure gradient behind that front due to the large high pressure to the north, the entire FL east coast will likely see 35-45 mph sustained wind regardless of Noel's presence over the next 3-4 days. Winds might actually increase as Noel moves off to the NE and transitions to extratropical, as that'll help to pump more cool, dry air southward off the SE U.S. Coast and down toward Florida.

Once again, more evidence from Wxman57 that Florida is in the clear. Praise the lord!

Oh my god! wxman is a great met, but he isnt god! You have to consider that anything can still happen, especially in a season where the rules don't matter!

[wxman57]

Note a couple of things on the 03Z track - it's almost exactly the same as the OFCI track I posted earlier (no big surprise with that much model consensus). Note also that there are no TS-force winds in SW or NW of the center as it approaches Florida. This would be due to increasing SW wind shear and dry air intrusion. Finally (ok, 3 things), note the weakening as it approaches Florida (dry air/wind shear).

So the NHC is forecasting all TS-force winds to be east of the center across the Bahamas - at least all the 39+ mph winds directly associated with the circulation around Noel's center. Like I've said for days, with such a strong pressure gradient behind that front due to the large high pressure to the north, the entire FL east coast will likely see 35-45 mph sustained wind regardless of Noel's presence over the next 3-4 days. Winds might actually increase as Noel moves off to the NE and transitions to extratropical, as that'll help to pump more cool, dry air southward off the SE U.S. Coast and down toward Florida.

Once again, more evidence from Wxman57 that Florida is in the clear. Praise the lord!

I won't be able to 100% guarantee you're "in the clear' for another 48-72 hrs. Until then, prepare for minimal TS force winds lasting for 2-3 days, whatever that entails (as far as preparations). Wax your surf board?

Along with that strong onshore flow will come tides 2-3 feet above normal and lots of beach erosion. So even though you may not get a true TS there (more of a hybrid storm), it could still cause some damage, maybe even knock power out for a short time in spots. But then, I don't think you have any weak trees to fall on power lines over there any more after the 2004/2005 seasons.

[wxman57]

Oh my god! wxman is a great met, but he isnt god! You have to consider that anything can still happen, especially in a season where the rules don't matter!

Actually, didn't someone here claim I was God during Felix or some other storm?

Ok, enough of this. I have to be at work by 6am.

Nite!

[Vortex]

230utc indicates a burst right over the center...Becoming better organized on satellite and radar. I will not be surprised if we have a minimal hurricane tomorrow morning

[Blown Away]

21.2N/75W is still W of the 5pm NHC track.

[CajunMama]

If any of you have a personal problem with another member...address them in a pm. I've seen too many snide remarks in this thread. It hasn't been pleasant reading it. Those who feel they need to call someone out are close to getting a warning themselves. So...either ignore the post and just move on or like i said, pm them.