CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[hurricanetrack]

Folks, notice too that Dean is not exactly within a top-notch upward motion area either. Conditions out where it is now are just so-so. Once it gets in to warmer water, a more moist environment and farther away from where all of the experts have said this hurricane season is lacking (east Atlantic) then it will be off to the races.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I agree with the possibility of Dean going poof because mainly of his speed. The low could outrun the convection. Which would put the storm to an open wave. It has happen before. But in this case, I doubt it. Models are only a guidance and by no means are they going to be 100% right. It's amazing how the news is already hyping this. If it does go poof nobody will listen to the future storms. Maybe Home Depot pays them.Because there stocks were down today.

[wxwatcher91]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

From 5am EDT this morning:

TD 4 continues to be subject to moderate easterly shear keeping the majority of the convection to the west of the circulation. Wind shear will subside over the next 48 hours as TD 4 approaches the influences of an upper level ridge east of the Lesser Antilles. At this point, steady strengthening will begin. The issue after 36 hours will be an area of drier air currently to the west and north of the storm, however TD 4 will still continue strengthening to category 1 intensity by day 3 as water temperatures remain high and shear low. As TD 4 strengthens and approaches a weakness in the ridge around day 3, it will begin to recurve to the west-northwest. The first impacts of the storm on land will be felt on Puerto Rico by day 5. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico should monitor this storm closely.

[decgirl66]

If Dean could hear all his fans cheering him on....he would be a cane in no time! LOL!

[Scorpion]

2100 UTC Tue Aug 14 2007


tropical storm center located near 11.6n 41.0w at 14/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the west or 265 degrees at 18 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1004 mb
Max sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
34 kt....... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw.
12 ft seas.. 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 11.6n 41.0w at 14/2100z
at 14/1800z center was located near 11.6n 40.2w

forecast valid 15/0600z 11.7n 43.6w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 15/1800z 12.0n 46.9w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 40ne 0se 0sw 40nw.

Forecast valid 16/0600z 12.3n 50.2w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw.
34 kt... 60ne 30se 0sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 16/1800z 12.6n 53.5w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 0se 0sw 40nw.
34 kt... 75ne 40se 0sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 17/1800z 14.0n 59.5w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 30se 0sw 60nw.
34 kt...100ne 70se 40sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 18/1800z 15.5n 64.5w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.

Outlook valid 19/1800z 17.5n 69.5w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 11.6n 41.0w

next advisory at 15/0300z

$$
forecaster Landsea/Knabb

[HurryKane]

If Dean could hear all his fans cheering him on....he would be a cane in no time! LOL!

I'll be happy to drown them out with the lone "DIE DEAN, DIE!"

[crownweather]

Is the ECMWF site working for everyone?? It seems to be down for me!! http://www.ecmwf.int/

[trendal]

Diurnal minimum....

Some people had better get some patience


I think Dean is still doing fine, just showing us the effects of the diurnal minimum. Still looks great on IR (but not "great" as in "a hurricane"...yet). I think everyone who is surprised to see Dean looking like he is right now will come back tomorrow morning and be surprised at how much better he looks. They'll get bit by the diurnal max...

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

...DEAN MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1140
MILES...1830 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1390 MILES...2235 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...11.6 N...41.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB

[Wx_Warrior]

What about the ones that are against Dean??? LOL

[Scorpion]

..Dean moving westward across the central tropical Atlantic...

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Dean.

At 500 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Dean was
located near latitude 11.6 north...longitude 41.0 west or about 1140
miles...1830 km...west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands and
about 1390 miles...2235 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.


Dean is moving quickly toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.


Repeating the 500 PM AST position...11.6 N...41.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM AST.

[El Nino]

It will be like TD10 in 2005, then die. 91L will be the next storm, and then TD10 will reborn as TD12 and then ...

[miamicanes177]

I would note that although it looks pretty sorry right now, the HWRF is forecasting this to be a 900mb hurricane in 5 days!

[Brent]

No change at 5pm, slow strengthening through 36 hours and then faster, still 95 kt at 120 hours just southeast of the DR.

[ConvergenceZone]

I am not forecasting weakening, let that be known

I am rethinking major cane for the Islands

well, that can only be good news then...The islands avoiding a major cane would be the best news of the day. It seems like that's where we hear of all the deaths from and hopefully we can avoid even 1 death with this storm.

[punkyg]

Diurnal minimum....

Some people had better get some patience


I think Dean is still doing fine, just showing us the effects of the diurnal minimum. Still looks great on IR (but not "great" as in "a hurricane"...yet). I think everyone who is surprised to see Dean looking like he is right now will come back tomorrow morning and be surprised at how much better he looks. They'll get bit by the diurnal max...

I'm like you i'm just waiting for the diurnal max to come.

[Agua]

If Dean could hear all his fans cheering him on....he would be a cane in no time! LOL!

I'll be happy to drown them out with the lone "DIE DEAN, DIE!"

You won't be alone.

[windstorm99]

[Steve]

>>It will be like TD10 in 2005, then die. 91L will be the next storm, and then TD10 will reborn as TD12 and then ...

Worst storm ever.

[windstorm99]