TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[KWT]

curtadams, how can it be strengthening when the convection is being shunted to the south constantly, its pretty much close to being a naked swirl right now and the sheared convection to the south is the only area of noteable convection within the entire system. Indeed that convection is probably just about strong enough to keep the system at 30kts. At least the LLc is getting any weaker and its probably holding steady i'd guess right now.

By the way the shear is probably mid-level rather then high based, the outflow you mention would be at high levels and so wouldn't be a true reflection of how bad the shear is, tohug hthe worst of the shear seesm to be to the south of the center right now. The dry air about the system also obviously can't be helping.

Still at elast this system is flaring up, as lnog as that happens this system could get going at any moment.

[CrazyC83]

From CIMSS:

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2007 Time : 161500 UTC
Lat : 13:56:29 N Lon : 48:07:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1006.6mb/ 33.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.2 2.5 2.5

Weakening flag turned off. Seems to be in steady state right now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt08L.html

[KWT]

Also worth noting that estimate still would support a tropical storm despite the convective set-up of this system looking a little poor, probably all down to that strong LLC it presently has I guess as well as the convective bursts it has on the southern side.

[CrazyC83]

Also worth noting that estimate still would support a tropical storm despite the convective set-up of this system looking a little poor, probably all down to that strong LLC it presently has I guess as well as the convective bursts it has on the southern side.

Correct, which is why I still think it is 35 kt. I think it will hover around there, up and down, through the weekend.

[KWT]

Yeah maybe but if the NHC didn't upgrade on the last advisory when it looked far better i'll be surprised if they upgrade it come the next one, though they may be tempted if it can pull that southern mass of convection closer back to the center. In that respect this system rmeinds me of an upside down Barry!

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[CrazyC83]

The outflow seems to be looking better, even though the convection is not looking nearly as good...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like the LLC is heading Northwest, while the convection heads almost due West.


Wonder what the odds are of a complete decoupling. Then the odds that either the convection/mid-level feature or the low level center redevelops.


Or maybe they both redevelop, which would make for interesting assignment of TD numbers and TS names.

[KWT]

Not really that surprising the outflow from the convection is looking okay right now because the whole thing is being sheared. i always seem to find that a sheared system with some convection left present with it tend sto have a nice outflow, esp when the outflow channel is to the south like it seems with this system anyway.

[jhamps10]

The outflow seems to be looking better, even though the convection is not looking nearly as good...

which is a good sign that td8 is holding on to itself, at least the circulation anyway.

[skysummit]

Maybe an anticyclone is trying to build overhead....

[Derek Ortt]

remember, there is recon at 8 p.m. tonight

NHC will probably wait for the NOAA reports

[Evil Jeremy]

are the Hurricane Hunters still flying into TD8 tonight?

[WmE]

are the Hurricane Hunters still flying into TD8 tonight?

I would think so. After all it's a tropical cyclone.

[KWT]

Derek, so the NHC will probably hold 30kts even if it did start look better and wait for recon to confirm whether its got high enough winds to suggest an upgrade?
i hate these sheared systems as they can have winds higher then what the look suggests and if the 2.3 rating stands then it still suggests we have a borderline TS. No doubting we have a strong LLC present.

[gatorcane]

I have to say this system is fighting hard to hold on.

In fact it would appear it is blowing up some good convection despite the DMIN.

Maybe still something to keep an eye on and not stick a fork in yet...

[Category 5]

I have to say this system is fighting hard to hold on.

In fact it would appear it is blowing up some good convection despite the DMIN.

Maybe still something to keep an eye on and not stick a fork in yet...

hmmmmm

how about TD 8...looks like I smell BIG bust coming and a huge let down for this board.

Again all bark and no bite. Should have stuck to my guns and not even given it a chance....

Fall is coming quick this year....I'm not sure how much longer we will see any CV storms.

intresting.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I have to say this system is fighting hard to hold on.

In fact it would appear it is blowing up some good convection despite the DMIN.

Maybe still something to keep an eye on and not stick a fork in yet...

I think SE Florida all the way up to the Carolinas should
keep a VERY close eye on this...

And of course, the caribbean islands
should be on gaurd.

[ConvergenceZone]

The thing is, if it's having such a hard time now, what's it going to do when the shear REALLY increases down the road??...That's why I don't think it's going to do anything for the next several days, perhaps like gator says, it can somehow maintain an organized wave status and then start developing as it gets into better conditions, but that's way way down the road, late next week....Other then that, how's this going to develop with conditions forecast to worsen far beyond what they are now??...

[tolakram]

Other then that, how's this going to develop with conditions forecast to worsen far beyond what they are now??...

Well, I for one don't trust that the condition forecasts are correct. Right now it's a waiting game to see if it develops (shear forecast to drop a little before rising again). The shear forecast has been consistently wrong.