Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Vortex]

It will be close but the 500mb at H+24 should bring it between SE Florida and Andros..We'll see

[destruction92]

H+24 GFS

Back over water..S of Adros. That ridge means business!!


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

Oh, I forgot to ask, could you also post this info. in the models thread for people to see there as well? It would be a great help. Thanks.

[DESTRUCTION5]

36 hrs headed to the keys..!

[Vortex]

From 24-36 a near stall...

Ridge is moving off the EC quickly should make a run for it at H+48. Either way will be close.

[CourierPR]

36 hrs headed to the keys..!

If that were to verify, we could be looking at a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS 36 hour loop

00z GFS 48 hour loop

00z GFS 66 hour loop

00z GFS 78 hour loop

00z GFS 96 hour loop

00z GFS 126 hour loop

[Blown Away]

First 12 hours of RUN and GFS has it due west into Cuba..That ridge to the north is very strong...

Local reliable Met said the High would be strongest tomorrow afternoon. If Noel maintains WNW to NW movement at @12mph for the next 24 hours, Noel will be near 25N/79W, that's almost on the coast. So for the NHC track to verify Noel has to slow down quite a bit starting pretty soon.

[CourierPR]

Noel appears to be getting better organized.

[destruction92]

36 hrs headed to the keys..!

If that were to verify, we could be looking at a hurricane.

graphics please?

[RL3AO]

GFS keeps it away from Florida lifting NNE after 48 hours.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS keeps it away from Florida lifting NNE after 48 hours.

Yes but west trend continued tonight..

[cycloneye]

36 hrs headed to the keys..!

If that were to verify, we could be looking at a hurricane.

graphics please?

Posted at models thread.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300356
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 06 20071030
034400 1847N 06751W 3926 07733 0416 -165 -194 148015 015 007 003 00
034430 1848N 06754W 3926 07733 0417 -167 -190 153016 016 007 003 00
034500 1849N 06756W 3926 07730 0414 -169 -190 163015 016 007 003 00
034530 1850N 06759W 3926 07731 0415 -170 -188 172016 016 010 003 00
034600 1851N 06801W 3926 07726 0411 -169 -187 178016 016 008 003 00
034630 1851N 06804W 3926 07722 0410 -169 -193 181016 016 010 003 00
034700 1852N 06806W 3926 07724 0408 -169 -188 179016 016 008 003 00
034730 1853N 06809W 3926 07715 0403 -169 -188 179016 016 004 003 00
034800 1854N 06812W 3926 07719 0402 -170 -188 179016 016 005 003 00
034830 1855N 06814W 3926 07725 0409 -170 -189 180017 017 009 003 00
034900 1856N 06817W 3926 07727 0413 -170 -187 179017 017 008 003 00
034930 1857N 06819W 3926 07730 0414 -170 -184 175017 017 007 003 00
035000 1858N 06822W 3926 07730 0414 -166 -192 173018 018 008 002 00
035030 1859N 06824W 3926 07725 0411 -165 -196 172017 018 001 004 00
035100 1900N 06827W 3926 07728 0412 -165 -191 169016 017 000 003 00
035130 1901N 06829W 3926 07725 0411 -166 -188 166014 014 015 001 00
035200 1902N 06832W 3926 07719 0404 -165 -195 175012 013 010 003 00
035230 1903N 06834W 3926 07722 0407 -165 -193 174012 013 004 003 00
035300 1903N 06837W 3925 07725 0410 -165 -192 170010 011 010 003 00
035330 1904N 06839W 3926 07726 0411 -165 -191 168010 011 001 004 00
$$
;

[bocadude86]

Going to be a close call

[Vortex]

H+48 moving NE after making its closest approach about 40-60 miles to the E...This sure will be a close call and GFS usually has a right bias..Well see

[destruction92]

H+48 moving NE after making its closest approach about 40-60 miles to the E...This sure will be a close call and GFS usually has a right bias..Well see

And GFS is counting on Noel to stall from hours 24 to 36...do you think it will stall for 12 hours?
I don't know if this model run was very reliable...erratic north-south sharp turn jumps from the Bahamas down to Cuba to near the Keys and then an ENE 90 degree turn.


Has the GFS shifted east or west of its last run?

[Evil Jeremy]

westward shift again.

[Blown Away]

I don't buy any acute angle tracks.

[Bgator]

The mtns. of Cuba seem to be stopping development in the south quad. It still seems to be heading 310-ish, very near Cuba coast, at least what i can see from radar.

[hurricanefloyd5]

jeremey are you looking at some new models or the old one???? What is giving you the Ieda that the track shifted west again!!!!! I am agreeing with you!!!!