TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Brent]

Shear forecasts are notoriously WRONG. They may be right in the case, but you shouldn't assume they are.

While I don't think this storm is going to do much in the next couple of days(though a TS is possible), I'm not writing this off. It has a vigorous LLC and nice outflow, and a weak storm is more likely to go west rather than north. It could be something bigger to watch down the road.

[KWT]

The thing is, if it's having such a hard time now, what's it going to do when the shear REALLY increases down the road??....

Ah but thats a big assumption to make, I'm willing to bet mid-level shear now is everybit as high as the shear forecasted by the models later this week/weekend, so how are we to asusme that shear will actually increase any more and indeed the models hardly cover themslef with glory when it comes to forecasting shear, so many times they have been wrong in the past.

[cycloneye]

DISORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT CONTINUES TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN OCEAN. AT 13/1500 UTC...IT
WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 48.0W OR ABOUT 775 NM EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
REMAINS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED
THAT SYSTEM COULD HAVE BEEN A TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW HOURS
WITH A FEW UN-FLAGGED 35 KT WINDS JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE CENTER. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
AFTERWARD THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH. ACCORDING TO
THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST...T.D. EIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 200 NM EAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS TUE AS A WEAK TROPICAL
STORM.

$$
GR



http://www.hwn.org/data/TWDAT.html

2 PM Discussion by TPC.

[canegrl04]

DISORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT CONTINUES TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN OCEAN. AT 13/1500 UTC...IT
WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 48.0W OR ABOUT 775 NM EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
REMAINS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED
THAT SYSTEM COULD HAVE BEEN A TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW HOURS
WITH A FEW UN-FLAGGED 35 KT WINDS JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE CENTER. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
AFTERWARD THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH. ACCORDING TO
THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST...T.D. EIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 200 NM EAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS TUE AS A WEAK TROPICAL
STORM.

$$
GR



http://www.hwn.org/data/TWDAT.html

2 PM Discussion by TPC.

AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM

More like a cat 1 hurricane given the NHC track record for intensity forecasts

[skysummit]

Holding its own...a thunderstorm just covered the naked LLC.

[punkyg]

Since convection is starting to cover td8's center does this mean she is over her morning sickness?

[CrazyC83]

Since convection is starting to cover td8's center does this mean she is over her morning sickness?

Possibly, although I think we are still in diurnal minimum...

[ConvergenceZone]

Shear forecasts are notoriously WRONG. They may be right in the case, but you shouldn't assume they are.

While I don't think this storm is going to do much in the next couple of days(though a TS is possible), I'm not writing this off. It has a vigorous LLC and nice outflow, and a weak storm is more likely to go west rather than north. It could be something bigger to watch down the road.

I agree that further down the road this may be a player, but probably not until early to mid next week at the latest, but other than a weak to moderate tropical storm, I can't see it developing beyond that at this point, based on how it's reacting to current conditions now, and struggling so hard.....

Regarding the heavy amount of shear, the NHC seem so confident on that happening if you read the excerpt from the last discussion below. It just doesn't seem like they are leaving much possibility for themselves to be wrong, but then again, that's what they get paid for and they are obviously seeing something that many others aren't.....

per the discussion:

"AFTERWARD THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH"

[miamicanes177]

I have to say this system is fighting hard to hold on.

In fact it would appear it is blowing up some good convection despite the DMIN.

Maybe still something to keep an eye on and not stick a fork in yet...

So you go from "stick a fork in it" and "poof" to what you just said? This is why people should stop calling for poofage and tankage while there is still a LLC. You can declare it dead if it loses the LLC, but not before. I thought Dean, Felix, Humberto, Gabrielle taught people a lesson but I guess not. Maybe Ingrid will teach them.

[cycloneye]

13/1745 UTC 14.3N 48.2W T2.5/2.5 08L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

SSD keeps this afternoon the T numbers 2.5/2.5.

[punkyg]

Can some one be nice and put up a shear map.

[Typhoon_Willie]

This system has a seriously long way to go before anyone can declare that it is over it's "sickness".

[canegrl04]

13/1745 UTC 14.3N 48.2W T2.5/2.5 08L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

SSD keeps this afternoon the T numbers 2.5/2.5.

TWC trop update calling for TS Ingrid in next 24-36 hours,but I think it will become Ingrid sooner than 24 hours from now

[Frank2]

Re: canegirl04's post

More like a cat 1 hurricane given the NHC track record for intensity forecasts

Intensity forecasting is a weakness in all of meteorology (not just tropical meteorology), and, is not exclusive to the NHC...

Your earlier quote shows just how fickle the public is - if a person performs well, they are a hero, but, if they fail the next day, they get critized...

The NHC has done very well this season - yesterday's sudden intensification was something often mentioned by the NHC as a possible danger to coastal residents who are often unaware of what is happening...

You'd be surprised at some who I work with, who wait until a thunderstorm to ask me, "Is this a hurricane?" - talk about clueless...

[KWT]

Yep cycloneye, I wonder what the NHC are thinknig about this right now, it doesn't appear to be a TS from a convective stand-point yet T numbers at 2.5 still suggests a tropical storm. I think they may wlel just wait for recon to get.
Still getting sheared pretty badly but the convection is inching its way closer to the center so shear may be easing a fraction.

ConvergenceZone, models do seem to forecast high shear in that region so given this the NHC have every right to think that high shear will effect this system by that time, but as we all know the models have been utterly rubbish with forecasting shear in the past and besides I think the shear probably won't be much stronger then todays shear is, at mid-levels anyway.

[ConvergenceZone]

I have to say this system is fighting hard to hold on.

In fact it would appear it is blowing up some good convection despite the DMIN.

Maybe still something to keep an eye on and not stick a fork in yet...

So you go from "stick a fork in it" and "poof" to what you just said? This is why people should stop calling for poofage and tankage while there is still a LLC. You can declare it dead if it loses the LLC, but not before. I thought Dean, Felix, Humberto, Gabrielle taught people a lesson but I guess not. Maybe Ingrid will teach them.

and on the other side of the spectrum, you have those thing that every wave, invest, depression will be a Felix or Dean, no ifs ands or buts....

Me, I"m kinda in the middle......

[Frank2]

Just to soon too tell with TD 8 - as mentioned, we'll know better once the aircraft get there...

[alienstorm]

From MIA NWS Discussion

BY SATURDAY, A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. POPS WILL BE A BIT LOWER BEFORE THE TROUGH REACHES THE AREA
DUE TO SOME DRYER AIR. THEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN A CUTOFF
H5 LOW PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTAL WATERS AND
THEN TURNS WEST THROUGH CENTRAL FL EARLY WED AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO THU. THIS MID LEVEL LOW WILL INDUCE AN INVERTED TROUGH AND
THIS WILL MOVE WITH THE H5 LOW.

This is interesting because if this is the case, the H% low will act as a outflow channel and shear would relax to the east causing a better enviroment for intensification. The the question will be where will it go to (Florida to North Carolina)?

[MGC]

I can't believe that recon is going out to check pathetic TD 8. It is clearly disorganized and poses no threat to land for a couple of days. With the shear out ahead of it TD 8 will be lucky to become a modest TS. One it gets north of the islands condition could improve a bit provided it survives till then......MGC

[KWT]

Disorganised it may well look but Sat.estimates do suggest a 35kts tropical storm as does quikscat and I dare say some of the data from around the system will be fed into the models as well to get a bette ride aof the exact structure of the system, that should lead to better model forecasts.