CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Derek Ortt]

Georges did fully recover... at least in terms of its pressure and its winds were very close.

Only took it 4 full days though

[KFDM Meteorologist]

18Hr 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_018l.gif

[hial2]

Haiti is not that big. For if a cat-3-5 would go over it would do nothing to the storm.JMO

It's not the size that matters (in this case) but the high mountain ranges that disrupt the cyclone's circulation..more than one storm has been killed by the mountainous terrain of Hispanola

[KFDM Meteorologist]

30 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

30 hr 500

Trough to it's west looks deeper on this run

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif

[HURAKAN]

[canegrl04]

Hispanola kills hurricanes,Haiti DOES NOT . It would only take a few hours for the eye to pass over Haiti .

[terstorm1012]

Appears that either the trough won't be strong enough to pick up Dean or Dean will be weak enough to miss it as it moves through the Caribbean and past Puerto Rico, or the trough will get to the East Coast just too late...

this is not a forecast or a wishcast, I'm merely attempting to interpret what I think the models are attempting to say. They've been swinging back and forth over the last couple days so it really seems the timing of this weekend's trough means everything from a Texas landfall to a Cape Cod landfall to a recurve out to sea past Bermuda.

[BigD]

30 hr 500

Trough to it's west looks deeper on this run

No kidding, looks like it'll get it.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

48 Hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

[Derek Ortt]

looks too far north already... no wonder I refuse to give the GFS any weight. Afterall, we know what it stands for good for you know what

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

48 500

[Wx_Warrior]

If the trough is deep I would think it would help move it but what the heck do I know? I'm only 300 posts in...

[BigD]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_048l.gif

48 500

ok, maybe it won't. LOL.

[Derek Ortt]

I need the next QS pass... I am having some trouble even locating this thing, even on nighttime visible. Does look like we were tracking the MLC earlier today and that is again displaced from the circulation at the surface

[KFDM Meteorologist]

60 hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

[Acral]

Hispanola kills hurricanes,Haiti DOES NOT . It would only take a few hours for the eye to pass over Haiti .

Not always.. they can and have "re-fired" after getting mauled by the mountains. But, tell you what , if something wants to kill Dean as it tries to run amuck in the GoM, then more power to whatever squashes this potential pest/disaster.

[Regit]

Hispanola kills hurricanes,Haiti DOES NOT . It would only take a few hours for the eye to pass over Haiti .

Well there's a big BUT there. The eye need not pass over mountains for the storm to sustain damage. Hispanola has ripped storms apart without them ever making landfall.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

60 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

Just don't think Trough is going to catch it. Big differences between GFS and Euro

[KBBOCA]

Hispanola kills hurricanes,Haiti DOES NOT . It would only take a few hours for the eye to pass over Haiti .

Haiti IS part of the island of Hispaniola. Hispaniola is divided between Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Here's a topographical map of Haiti. Unfortunately it doesn't note elevations.
http://209.15.138.224/haiti_maps/m_haiti_rel99x.htm